Cobra's Market View

BullBear52x wrote:GM, we should have opened at yesterday's low. very disappoint at bears who is buying anyways?

I'm not to happy about buying short then the mkt poped up yesterday.It did not feel right but I jumped in anyway.But now we wait to make up.Lets see.

it's hard to be a bear in this market. that's for sure.

Guess bulls now think about Fed meeting around 9/20

KENA wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:GM, we should have opened at yesterday's low. very disappoint at bears who is buying anyways?

I'm not to happy about buying short then the mkt poped up yesterday.It did not feel right but I jumped in anyway.But now we wait to make up.Lets see.

Yes, I remember you said you are not going to, well, we now have Neg. D a last sell the rips for Bears since I count last Neg. D as a failed one so if failed here switch side is advisable.

VIX Oct & Nov Futures keep going up while SPX is green. What does it imply?

This smells like market makers ripping off both bull and bear retail small fish traders... using rumor mill to take out stops in both directions and luring new positions to be opened.

In a bear market, bear market rules apply. Sticking with the long term down trend analysis for now until proven otherwise.

I will be using these whiplashes as counter-trade signals that market makers are using as bait.

Re-opened a speculative long TVIX position here- let's see what happens.

here is the chart of Neg. D could go as high as 118. bears last stand.

Market action this morning is telling me that the bull-tards have a target in mind. Perhaps the gap from Friday? Whatever that target, they won't stop buying until they get there. So if you're a bear, trying to short the rips, be very careful. If you're a bull, don't be stupid, use a stop.

Just looked at the Futures and they are still Dn.Note that copper was up to $4.20 three weeks ago and now this morn they are $3.97.It has been awhile since they were under $ 4.00.If this is a dn trend it will not be good for the mkt.Some short term hope for the Bears and test for new low.

spx turned up right at yesterday's opening hour highs with little/no overlap. This could go a while but just a rebound bigger picture IMO

Last month NYSE reported record high short interest (bullish for spy).

Bears couldn’t follow thru yest after the big rout on Friday. Small ramp up at close yest was ALL short covering. If it was real bulls buying, we would have seen evidence somewhere, like a spike in TBT/drop in TLT. We didn’t see that. Real bull buying shows when the bulls sell bonds (TBT spikes) to buy stock. They didn’t. Or they sell gold/silver to buy stocks. They didn’t.

(Money doesn’t move in a vacuum, it has to move from HERE to THERE.)

When too many shorts run for cover it can provide monster rallies, monster. Then a giant drop the minute a bad news report comes out, EU sneezes, etc., and the short covering stops, and the market is left to the bulls to hold it up… but no bulls yet … we’ll see it in the numbers.

Until VIX (fear index) calms down to below 30, and some of that excess short interest gets reduced by covering rallies, we could be in for some violent moves, BOTH WAYS. We can't be "a bear" or "a bull" in this market, just flexible, and flip from red to green when the numbers demand, and honor our stops, and follow The Cobra.

(Little spike TBT already on open today, let’s watch for follow through. But VERY slow opening).

Stale news link because short interest only reports monthly. New report should be out on the 15th. Someone please chirp when they see the new one.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-shor ... -june-2010

still too stretched, don't think it can sustain. but since the push up is strong, so the very first pullback would fail.

When everybody is so blue on the market, you should buy. USA is still there !

do you guys see strong resistance at 118?

jaaawf wrote:spx turned up right at yesterday's highs with little/no overlap. This could go a while but just a rebound bigger picture IMO

Agree --- bigger picture trend is still down with PLENTY of "patterns" by which the market can continue downward but, that doesn't mean that the bulls can't have fun for a few days!

overnight high as resistance. the chart doesn't look bad so far.

or is the 119 print from friday the target for this rally?

Paging Tabby...
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx_6082.html

Cobra wrote:still too stretched, don't think it can sustain. but since the push up is strong, so the very first pullback would fail.

after hr phamton bar could be target of today!

Quote of the Day

Either Greece defaults and remains in the euro; or it defaults and leaves the euro.

http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2 ... to-a-head/