Cobra's Market View

JFR wrote:Hitting a speed bump.

2019-01-16_0710.png

2624 is my pivot maybe that's why

dtES estimated ranges for today. We have already reached the high, so caution is warranted. NTA

TICKs are have moved higher faster than their MA lines, I expect some consolidation shortly....

so far the first counter trend survived, today is different eh?

FT71's primary scenario for today is still on. Move up out of the overnight range then back down to do the re-test of those prior resistance levels (2,600). But more interesting is the new Boy Wonder's outlook up at Zerohedge where he is sticking to the the prior bear market as an analog. Spoiler alert, Friday could start the selling for a pullback. Given how central bank dependent the market has become I really doubt the analog holds up but we will see.

BullBear52x wrote:

JFR wrote:Hitting a speed bump.

2019-01-16_0710.png

2624 is my pivot maybe that's why

At times we feel we control the universe. For good stuff or anxieties. Ha ha

Taking a break. Gonna go watch some news.

For now, 61.8% still in play for a good support.

Bouncing on the overnight high,. as expected. Don't know if it will hold or not but trend says no.

9:34

turned from beautiful day to snow/hail in seconds
going short on the bad omen indicator
:lol

Pullback shocker. Ha ha

OK, now I am taking a break.

Mr. B here with a few observations.

NYMO remains well above the upper resistance level. While it did not break all time highs at the peak, the cumulative above the upper turn threshold is probably breaking records.
Price has bitten solidly into the resistance burger and looks soon to reach the middle keltner band, the 50 day SMA and the beef patty of resistance above 2631.50.
Of the three scenarios suggested when NYMO broke the upper turn zone (peak, consolidation, bull stampede), the price action has been consistent with bull stampede analogs.
The steep bear channel (marked in lavender) has been broken this morning.
The lower keltner band has turned up.
All this is solidly bullish.

That said, I want to see what happens after the middle keltner is recaptured. It is not unusual to see price range around the middle keltner before making a decision to proceed to the upper or go revisit the lower.
I do think the gap target at SPX 2650.54 is close enough to act as a magnet at this point. That is also a place where patient bears could pull their trigger.
To declare the bear dead, I would like to see a weekly close above the 50 week EMA. That wouldn't preclude some kind of low retest.

I am also curious about a possible shallow bear channel (marked in dark blue with orange extensions).
It looks weird because of all the price action above the upper bound, but it captures remarkably well what NYMO was saying during the late summer.
After the upper boundary was pierced on July 9, NYMO went negative and stayed weak while price made divergent highs.
Essentially a broad swath of stocks started correcting in July while a narrow set (think FAANGs) lifted the index.
When the narrow set gave up the ghost in October, price reconnected with this channel, and after a bull/bear fight dropped into it formally.
So, if the channel is technically salient (big if), we should see NYMO wilt around the upper boundary and possibly get a tag and turn.
Something to watch if it occurs. Sorry if this is a bit long winded...

I am still long the R2K.

new LOD is a home run for da bear today, bears can not lose today.

at the best for bulls it's a range day. at this stage, a bearish reversal day is possible, beware.

DANGER zone.. mind that 50w SMA 2001/2007 redux

better be double bottom here, failure would be terrible.

14 min chart says we will break (down)

Range Day, Buy Lo/Sell Hi, easy all day long.

No more new entry for me, left over lot stop at 2625. good luck all die hard. Peace!

fehro wrote:DANGER zone.. mind that 50w SMA 2001/2007 redux

What does the winking smilie infer?

K447 wrote:

fehro wrote:DANGER zone.. mind that 50w SMA 2001/2007 redux

What does the winking smilie infer?

We stall here… and head down.. and take out the recent lows look for 16-24 month pullback.."like" 2001 and or 2007