Cobra's Market View

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SPY one minute. Getting squeezed. Looking for a breakout. Quiet day so far. Taking a break. Back later ...

Too weak, sit out, wait for another buy if it will come.

BEN Target + 87 %
From 18.35 to 34.24
+ 5.8 % Dividend

SPY 5 minute. Down to a level of support.

here we, at the moment of truth!!!

US Navy is moving a hospital ship to NY

Awaiting potus press conference
they are setting up now

SPY 5. Back up to a pivot.

Does anyone have good recommendations for how to put on new shorts to take advantage of further declines? I've had SPXU for a month or so, and I've been buying SPY puts but they're super expensive now. I've started buying puts on individual bank stocks. Any other ideas? What's going to collapse if we have a deep recession/depression?

Also, I'm worried about the market closing. Apparently if this happens you can still exercise your options - which will take a lot of $$$, or you can sell at the next opening price when the market re-opens. I'm still trying to confirm.

Leveraged ETFs may have similar problems. So there's a decent amount of risk in leveraged issues and puts.

Al_Dente wrote:US Navy is moving a hospital ship to NY

Awaiting potus press conference
they are setting up now

Seems like market has been bouncing back during these pressers. Let's see....

Are we seriously bouncing on Sanders dropping out? Hard to believe. Any port in a storm, I guess.
I'm guessing it's anticipation of happy talk during presser

re: March 12 (reported yesterday)
FOLKS THIS IS VANGUARD, NOT SOME RANDOM PODUNK FUND:
Extremely volatile conditions across the US fixed income market have led to a highly unusual pricing dislocation in Vanguard’s
$55bn total bond market ETF (TICKER: BND), one of the world’s largest ETFs. The ETF saw the gap between its closing price and the net asset value (NAV) of the fund surge to a 6.2 per cent discount on March 12, when the Treasury market froze up. Most ETFs usually trade throughout the day in a very narrow band around the NAV of the fund… Since its launch 13 years ago, BND’s closing premium has averaged 0.17 per cent. 
https://www.ft.com/content/3d452b5c-a76 ... 3af7d54419

UUP fresh hod! (Up >1.5%)

Before the press conference:
What Treasury will ask Congress for:
$50 billion to airlines (secured lending facility)
TWO rounds of $1,000 payment to each American adult (administered by the IRS)
$300 billion to small businesses (business interruption program)
$150 billion to other sectors (loan guarantees)
etc
Pundits say Congress is tooooo slow, hence market down

mattchessen wrote:Does anyone have good recommendations for how to put on new shorts to take advantage of further declines? I've had SPXU for a month or so, and I've been buying SPY puts but they're super expensive now. I've started buying puts on individual bank stocks. Any other ideas? What's going to collapse if we have a deep recession/depression?

Also, I'm worried about the market closing. Apparently if this happens you can still exercise your options - which will take a lot of $$$, or you can sell at the next opening price when the market re-opens. I'm still trying to confirm.

Leveraged ETFs may have similar problems. So there's a decent amount of risk in leveraged issues and puts.

The only options I play are to sell naked puts. That is a value play. Not relevant in a bear market.

I am mostly in cash markets, CDs, aside from day trades and scalps on various assets. I am holding some ETFs.

Longer term shorts ... one can play SH, depending on the charts. As of right now, SH is in between, up but on a pullback.

Here is a generic chart of SH. The trend up is good. Needs a breakout.

Just in my opinion, quick answer.

mattchessen wrote:... I'm worried about the market closing. Apparently if this happens you can still exercise your options - which will take a lot of $$$, or you can sell at the next opening price when the market re-opens. I'm still trying to confirm.

Leveraged ETFs may have similar problems. So there's a decent amount of risk in leveraged issues and puts.

Beware of options that may expire while market remains closed.

FYI
when presser started:
dow down APPROXIMATELY -1288 points
atm down -1496 points

SPY 5. Down to support.

Breakout on the downside is more likely.