03/07/2012 Intraday Watering

[stucap]

Let's cut to the facts. A rising wedge has broken and now we sell until we find a support line that holds a few times and then we'll be back to mindless buying once again.

And that should retrace 100%, or more, in less time than it took to form.

I'm glad you posted that as I had forgotten to look at Hussman's weekly article the last few months. Thanks!

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120305.htm
(in part...much more good stuff there....Hussmans showed QExx doesn't work as money volatility slows and the end result is nothing gained in the economy and no problems solved)

Last week, the estimated return/risk profile of the S&P 500 fell to the worst 2.5% of all observations in history on our measures. This is not a runaway bull market. Rather, it is a market that again stands near the highs of an extended but volatile trading range. I am convinced that the breakdown of the market from this range has been deferred only through repeated and extraordinary central bank actions.

Importantly, the market is again characterized by an extreme set of conditions that we've previously associated with a "Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest." The rare instances we've seen this syndrome historically are reviewed in that previous weekly comment. They include the 1972-73 and 1987 market peaks, and several instances since 1998. The more recent instances of this syndrome are shown by the blue bands on the chart below. Each of the separate instances in the 1998-2000 period were followed in short order by intermediate market declines of between 10-18%, and of course, ultimately by a plunge of more than 50% in 2000-2002. Likewise, the 2007 instance was followed in short order by a correction of nearly 10%, and a few months later by a plunge of more than 50% in 2007-2009. The more recent instances in 2010 and 2011 have also been followed by substantial market selloffs in each case, though with a longer lag in 2011 (due to ongoing QE2 operations). Aggressive monetary policy did not prevent the ultimate declines, though massive central bank interventions have undoubtedly helped to short-circuit the more violent follow-through that occurred in 1973-1974, 1987, 2000-2002, and 2007-2009, at least to-date.

Love me some Hussman

[Cobra]

GM Cobra, This is my first post. I've been watcing and following along since august last year! lol Thank you for the site. Been learning so much here and reading your reports and have made some money too. I heard about you from Bullish Cross where he has a link and I've been hooked ever since. At first I tried to read all the posts and got confused and mixed signals. Later I narrowed it down to just mostly reading your posts and I started to do much better! I often use your Amazon links to shop because I use Amazon a lot. Please keep up the good work you Martian twisting turning king Cobra Snake! Here is an interview I saw a couple weeks ago on Moneyshow with AL Brooks. (I don't read all the posts so excuse me if someone already shared this) He has an interesting take on why he doesn't watch the news while trading. http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNet ... ndicators/

Thanks and welcome aboard!

[Cobra]

GM Cobra, This is my first post. I've been watcing and following along since august last year! lol Thank you for the site. Been learning so much here and reading your reports and have made some money too. I heard about you from Bullish Cross where he has a link and I've been hooked ever since. At first I tried to read all the posts and got confused and mixed signals. Later I narrowed it down to just mostly reading your posts and I started to do much better! I often use your Amazon links to shop because I use Amazon a lot. Please keep up the good work you Martian twisting turning king Cobra Snake! Here is an interview I saw a couple weeks ago on Moneyshow with AL Brooks. (I don't read all the posts so excuse me if someone already shared this) He has an interesting take on why he doesn't watch the news while trading. http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNet ... ndicators/

Oh, I don't read news either, just sometimes out of curiosity I'd like to know how the media explains why the market is up or down, fun to listen to all those reasons.

[billrider321]

whats the target for measured move is it 1320. Can we go long for a day or 2 from there. I trade rydex funds only so if there is any weakness around 10.45 I will cover my shorts and go long. Or wait till end of day today. we have employment numbers this friday.

BR, I'm a Rydex only trader, as well. I like the Ultras as we have 2 opportunities to make decisions each day. I'm 60% short but added 10% long NDX at yesterday's close for a short term pop.

Would you mind telling me why Rydex instead of ETF? is it because it's your 401K money and your company sponsored part is in a Rydex account? Hope you're OK with this question, I'm always wondering why so many trade Rydex, got to be some reasons.

you are right company restriction. I dont post much but watch the forum. its little difficult but works Ok. No transaction cost.

[uempel]

I showed this chart yesterday:

[Mr. T]

Pretty weak leg 1 up......

Overlap and fail?

[btran874]

I showed this chart yesterday:

yes.png

Great chart. I sold it pre-market equivalent of 1349 to cash. I think it should be creeping up to 1352-1354. I'm planning to short there.

[TWT]

KBE: If the count that I am following os correct then the current bounce is a wave (4) that should top in the area of 21.81

(thewavetrading.com)

[uempel]

Update with daily MAs:

[johnnywa]

Too much Greece overhang for rally,just churn today

[stucap]

Too much Greece overhang for rally,just churn today

VWAP maintaining a tight range 1344-1349. With no conviction either way we churn churn churn the butter.

[soku]

boring. i am waiting for a clear big picture.
here is a chart from ZH. tyler said expecting 50ma which is around 1320.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... echoes.png

[ZimZeb]

[soku]

here is another chart for similarity. do u believe in algo?
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-alS5z3Nm00M/T ... 00/sdm.png

[uempel]

I showed this chart yesterday:

The attachment yes.png is no longer available

Great chart. I sold it pre-market equivalent of 1349 to cash. I think it should be creeping up to 1352-1354. I'm planning to short there.

Thanks, here some of the resistance levels I'm looking at, support is way down at 1330, 1320 and 1300. But I'm off, the sun is shining and I don't feel like staring at a boring screen and waiting for the appl announcement...

[Cobra]

not a bad looking consolidation area or Diamond, the bias is up.

[Richarab]

oil making move up
equities and oil and in lock step. SPY and ES going to pop

[Cobra]

up as I said. target, I believe.

[uempel]

Update resistances:

[TraderGirl]

I don't know where we will end up by the end of the day, we could get an inverted hammer today, meaning, we bounce, and then go back to where we started at the beginning of the day, don't know..?? But tomorrow is a turning point, so we have positive aspects that would most likely give us a good bounce tomorrow....