Cobra's Market View

Swing setup, last sell failed, bulls earned a buy coupon, only LL will voided it. Bears need to sell hard. see MACD is bullish crossed, so I give bulls credit of a doubt.

Anyone know why the SPX futures chart is soo different right now to the cash chart?? Both are live right now.

BullBear52x wrote:

Ratbastrd wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Text book, invert H&S, and consolidate to make HL or C&H. simple 101 type stuff.

Alternatively....

The attachment 1.jpg is no longer available

yes, but you don't look for H&S at the bottom @ RSI <30 on the daily, I will look for H&S @ RSI >70 but that just me

Nor me, I'm just F'ing with you...

I'm not a huge fan of the H&S pattern in general. Read something a long time ago that pointed out the H&S are really diamond patterns which are inflection points.

jademann wrote:Anyone know why the SPX futures chart is soo different right now to the cash chart?? Both are live right now.

the same to me, in what way different? intraday you still have triangle like pattern.

Thanks, It looked like one was going down and the other not.. Will check again.

Speaking of diamond patterns, here is one I'm looking at (SHOP). I've been nibbling a bit, with a sizeable limit order in at $810. I'll put a stop below the recent low.

Ratbastrd wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Ratbastrd wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Text book, invert H&S, and consolidate to make HL or C&H. simple 101 type stuff.

Alternatively....

1.jpg

yes, but you don't look for H&S at the bottom @ RSI <30 on the daily, I will look for H&S @ RSI >70 but that just me

Nor me, I'm just F'ing with you...

I'm not a huge fan of the H&S pattern in general. Read something a long time ago that pointed out the H&S are really diamond patterns which are inflection points.

Diamante.jpg

major trend change occurred at inside day, Harami by the end of day. the day may starts as inside day and breakout on either side those are easy to tell if trend continue or reverse in real time. the Harami pattern get you guessing the next day. lets hope it breakout today, up or down.

A day like today, Harami in nature, 38.2 and 61.8% are what really mater to me. bullish harami or bearish harami.

BullBear52x wrote:

Ratbastrd wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

Ratbastrd wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Text book, invert H&S, and consolidate to make HL or C&H. simple 101 type stuff.

Alternatively....

1.jpg

yes, but you don't look for H&S at the bottom @ RSI <30 on the daily, I will look for H&S @ RSI >70 but that just me

Nor me, I'm just F'ing with you...

I'm not a huge fan of the H&S pattern in general. Read something a long time ago that pointed out the H&S are really diamond patterns which are inflection points.

Diamante.jpg

major trend change occurred at inside day, Harami by the end of day. the day may starts as inside day and breakout on either side those are easy to tell if trend continue or reverse in real time. the Harami pattern get you guessing the next day. lets hope it breakout today, up or down.

Agree, as I've said before, very much appreciate the contributions from everyone on this board. Some of the best technical analysis I see on a day to day basis. Thanks everyone (BB52)!

No position here. Looks like SPY and VIX are stuck in a holding position waiting next move.
Probably waiting for the FED and then we have to figure out how to react to the announcement.
VIX is still saying short any rallies though - but at the right price.

jademann wrote:No position here. Looks like SPY and VIX are stuck in a holding position waiting next move.
Probably waiting for the FED and then we have to figure out how to react to the announcement.
VIX is still saying short any rallies though - but at the right price.

Exactly! Waiting for our marching orders.

EARNINGS:
MSFT after the close today
Tomorrow, January 26: INTC after the close
Thursday, January 27: AAPL after the close

Ratbastrd wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:[quote="R


Agree, as I've said before, very much appreciate the contributions from everyone on this board. Some of the best technical analysis I see on a day to day basis. Thanks everyone (BB52)!

This is the only forum I hang out during my trading day. Best, TA and info that matters to trading info only. Thanks Cobra for hosting without bias.

Guess today will be going nowhere. All are waiting for tomorrow's FOMC.

found this on twitter

Keep knocking on 61.8% level, if it can not breakout the next test on 38.2% bears might have it, Bulls watch out, if it fails it will fail in a grand style.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/ ... are-saying

‘Fed Put’ Around 3,670?

“Examining the rare ‘exercises’ of the Fed put, marked by extraordinary announcements or unexpected forceful actions – 1987, LTCM in 1998, 2001 Tech Bubble burst, 2008 GFC, 2019 ‘Powell Pivot,’ 2020 Pandemic Rescue – the average ‘exercise price’ is a -23.8% peak to trough (equating currently to SPX 3,670; in proximity to our 2022 downside scenario extreme of 3,575) drawdown,” said Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI in a note Monday.


PS: Which is almost exactly where that pbar showing on everyones screen sits. Thats a roughly 15% decline from current levels.

Took a small long position in UPRO based on VIX as usual