Cobra's Market View

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 5:11 pm**

sharky5 wrote:
usctrojan99 wrote:Perhaps I am in the minority, but I don't see a huge correction now. 80K jobs under forecast is going to be the reason why this market is going to sell off? This market has been shrugging bad news for a while. Is this the straw that broke the camels back? With earnings season starting next week, I can't imagine complete capitulation now. We may see some weakness, but it will be a buying opportunity IMO.
It is not the 80K jobs that matters. It was just used as a catalyst to sell off the market. Just like when the FED hinted that there will not be an imminent QE. The market is way due for a correction and the issues related to China and Europe has already presented itself. With a weaker Euro and a stronger dollar, there is more room for stocks to fall. There will be an even better buying opportunity when the S&P hits low to mid 1300's IMO.

The market has shrugged bad data since January and we've been overbought for so long. Simply saying we are due for a correction is not a valid enough argument. Yes - it will happen. But, I simply don't think we start a correction here. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bear trap on Monday. In a morbid way, this only strengthens Bernanke to pull a QE3 bow out of his quiver. Frankly, earnings season in January wasn't that positive and the market trended up as the Fed has incentivized putting money to work in the equity market. I think we have another move up before earnings season disappoints.

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:23 pm**

Wow AL what a charts! HOT!

att: report for institutional investors

NDD maybe I find something for u later

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 6:44 pm**

And of course he is sceduled to speak Monday,when was that on calendar,not yesterday or day before,not liking this being a long weekend

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:47 pm**

I am making a side bet with a trader that I know in my area. If this correction break 1340, I have to paypal him a grand. I was wondering anyone else on this board wants to make a side bet as well.

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 7:54 pm**

johnnywa wrote:And of course he is sceduled to speak Monday,when was that on calendar,not yesterday or day before,not liking this being a long weekend

Who is scheduled to speak Monday?

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:18 pm**

sharky5 wrote:
johnnywa wrote:And of course he is sceduled to speak Monday,when was that on calendar,not yesterday or day before,not liking this being a long weekend
Who is scheduled to speak Monday?

Bernanke. This market should not be this high. It has defied logic to many. Everyone's waiting for the pullback, but this market will play with your minds until you're ready to raise your white flag and sign up at the local asylum. Bernanke is going to pump this market until he's out and let someone else deal with the mess. He and Greenspan are cut from the same cloth.

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:47 pm**

usctrojan99 wrote:
sharky5 wrote:
johnnywa wrote:And of course he is sceduled to speak Monday,when was that on calendar,not yesterday or day before,not liking this being a long weekend
Who is scheduled to speak Monday?

Bernanke. This market should not be this high. It has defied logic to many. Everyone's waiting for the pullback, but this market will play with your minds until you're ready to raise your white flag and sign up at the local asylum. Bernanke is going to pump this market until he's out and let someone else deal with the mess. He and Greenspan are cut from the same cloth.

Where does it say that Bernanke is speaking on Monday? I could not find it anywhere.

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:56 pm**

sharky5 wrote:
usctrojan99 wrote:
sharky5 wrote:
johnnywa wrote:And of course he is sceduled to speak Monday,when was that on calendar,not yesterday or day before,not liking this being a long weekend
Who is scheduled to speak Monday?

Bernanke. This market should not be this high. It has defied logic to many. Everyone's waiting for the pullback, but this market will play with your minds until you're ready to raise your white flag and sign up at the local asylum. Bernanke is going to pump this market until he's out and let someone else deal with the mess. He and Greenspan are cut from the same cloth.
Where does it say that Bernanke is speaking on Monday? I could not find it anywhere.

Ahh...I saw it.

April 9 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Fostering Financial Stability
At the 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference, Stone Mountain, Georgia
7:15 p.m. ET

Glad it is after close of trading hrs. Gives opp. to close positions if necessary.

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:25 pm**

Al_Dente wrote:GOLD, intermediate and longer term

Gold and commodities prefer big inflation (NOT 2%):
46cpi.png
U all know the “general rule”: dollar up = commodities down
46goldcor.png

The ratio of Commodities to SPY has come down near a decent support level, but with only slight positive divergence so far.
46ccispy.png
And the ratio of GDX:GLD, which measures the strength of the gold mining stocks compared to physical gold, shows gold is still intermediate-term bear.
46gdxgld.png
The weekly shows gold at a tipping point (already noted by koolblue). If she breaks that trendline drawn all the way back to 2009,
that would be very bad news for gold, as there should be many stop orders waiting to be taken out just below that trendline,
which is why when gold drops, she usually goes fast and furious.
(Shorter term and intraday charts, not shown here, suggest that gold wants to bounce around a bit before deciding to hold or break that critical trendline. Also note $BPGDM at 17.89 is just grazing the “buy zone”. The last two sizeable rallys in gold came off a $BPGDM of 10-ish).
goldweek.png

Nice set of charts Big Al....

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:27 pm**

The FEDs Lacker believes that the markets had already baked-in QE3, implying that now we may need to …aaaaaaaa …."unbake-it."
But this interview was before today’s NFP… perhaps the bad NFP numbers will once again increase the likelihood of QE3.
Anything/everything to keep us guessing.
Still, I can’t help believing that when the banks can continue to borrow at the fed window at free/zero rates, that is a kind of synthetic QE, no?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-0 ... -high.html

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 9:29 pm**

Is anyone else astonished by this chart?
Of the roughly 3,000+ stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange, only 50% of them are trading above their 50 day moving average.

Posted: **Fri Apr 06, 2012 10:20 pm**

Al_Dente wrote:Is anyone else astonished by this chart?
Of the roughly 3,000+ stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange, only 50% of them are trading above their 50 day moving average.

46nya.png

Nowadays, too many ETFs in NYSE, so may not count anymore.

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 4:01 am**

@ Al_Dente

Sir, very nice gold charts, thank you!

Also note that MA300 on gold has been a rebound level and thus important support for gold in the past:
http://www.traders.fi/2012/04/was-top-in.html

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 4:38 am**

NDD wrote:Hello to all,

I am just about to start writing my bachelor thesis in economics and aim to write about something gold related. I have a couple of things which might be worth testing but I thought that before I start I’d ask you guys here if there might be someone sitting with a hypothesis (re gold/silver/trading) they want tested. I have passed all courses with distinction the past three years so I feel confident when staying that I will produce something of value to the reader. I’ve got about two months worth of time for this project so I hope it will be fruitful.

If interested please contact at [email protected] with suggestions, ideas etc..

(I know there are a lot of experienced traders/economists on this blog, so please let me help you with some research or just something interesting which there hasn’t been much work done on.)

Thank you and Happy Easter!

I suggest that you be sure to look at gold priced in other currencies besides dollars. You might also wish to look at nations who, during economic distress/collapse, forbid or limited the buying of gold (I think I read that France has limited buying)as well as its export to keep it in the country. And while FDR made the ownership of gold illegal, with it being traded worldwide now that would seem impossible. However, with a recent Executive Order signed (the title has "National Resources" in it) consider that it could be made a felony to barter in gold. All these new revenue agents that have been hired could make it difficult for a black market in gold to develop, if it is banned, by infiltrating them and making examples of those who violate the new laws enacted under a national emergency.

Good luck

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:27 am**

My Easter gift to Kena

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:53 am**

KeiZai wrote:My Easter gift to Kena

I like that chart lets all hope the mkt follows..Thanks

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:55 am**

KeiZai wrote:My Easter gift to Kena

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:15 am**

My long(er) term model to Buy SPY using TRIN data remains in buy mode. SMA of TRIN (2nd panel) has finally penetrated the last resistance/support line; this should be regarded as positive.

My Small Cap Long-Intermediate model moved to B&H mode about 2 weeks ago owing to an improvement in Lending _environment component

My shorter term Small Cap model also remains in buy mode.

The totality of evidence doesn’t support a down market in all time frames. Discalimer:These models predict price performance for weeks to months to come not what will happen in next few days

.

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 11:26 am**

Al_Dente wrote:Is anyone else astonished by this chart?
Of the roughly 3,000+ stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange, only 50% of them are trading above their 50 day moving average.

The attachment 46nya.png is no longer available

I am seeing the same phenomenon in the McClellan (common stock only chart attached). There is a divergence between the number of stocks that have declined and the S&P/NASDAQ indexes. The Russell is feeling it better.

It is a funky state as the McClellan chart below suggests (to me) a little pop should be close (if things don't crash) while other stuff is saying its time for a noticeable correction to start in earnest.

Posted: **Sat Apr 07, 2012 12:08 pm**

Chart below is an attempt to use SPX:TRIN ratio to figure out future performance of SPX. Notice that moving average cross over using 75/275 (or 200) period SMA of SPX:TRIN ratio would have allowed you to stay on the right side of market since 1994. (Bottom panel is 100 period SMA of TRIN, basis for my long term model). No hint of trouble ahead by this analysis.

Cobra's Market View

LONG WEEKEND 4/6/12

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