Cobra's Market View

koolblue wrote:Im really sticking my neck out with these posts and comments, but so what! I dont really care much about the long term as im retired and have no stock holdings, just cash and real estate. And note that im not always right.. for instance, remeber the 4203 high? I would have sworn that we would hit my fib at 4215 and we never did!!! And there were no fibs near it, so be forewarned. lol

Hi koolblue, just want you to know that I have enjoyed your posts and I very much appreciate your TA and insights! Best of trading! BB

1 min to roller coaster show. So far is in a range.

hiked rates by 0.75 basis points.

Wow..just made 22 handles on that last 10 min bar.... The trade was about 20 seconds! Wow

Then comes the reality that interest rates are jumping up ,75, the biggest increase in decades! The Fed has never (that I remember) raised rates like this in a declining market! The next few days could be fun,.But one stat for the bulls,of the 10 bear markets since WW 2, exactly one year from entering a bear market(yesterday 3740) the market was up an avg of 22 percent. That means 4550 by next July. And that's even if we continue declining to 3660 or 3250 as I suspect!

FED press conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Azr9FRuFED0

koolblue1413 wrote:Then comes the reality that interest rates are jumping up ,75, the biggest increase in decades! The Fed has never (that I remember) raised rates like this in a declining market! The next few days could be fun,.But one stat for the bulls,of the 10 bear markets since WW 2, exactly one year from entering a bear market(yesterday 3740) the market was up an avg of 22 percent. That means 4550 by next July. And that's even if we continue declining to 3660 or 3250 as I suspect!

Or, another way of saying that is that is the market wont see new highs for at least another year. What we have now on the books is an extended period of tightening money policy. There are very few periods like that in the past 100 years. One can see how we did with that.

Well, this should fix everything.

Correct! Well said! Brokebybernacke2

Man I'm still shaking from that trade! I didn't even have a stop in,just my finger on the mouse(3774 to 3796). By the way,I would Never advise anyone to do that.. sometimes even I get lucky. Taking the rest of the day off. Whew!

Hmm, this is new. I thought once again it's up and up on FOMC day (then sharp down the next day).

Cletus Close Notes:

1) Strong up day as predicted
2) NYMO ticks up but normally we'd need a positive divergence (lower close on SPX than yesterday with higher close on NYMO) to build the bottom. For that reason, we'll be patient here on things like options and futures, biased down as a decent odds scenario.
3) Bottoming process is occurring and shorts are risky.

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Thursday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449387