06/09/2012 Weekend Discussion

[ocassional observer]

i see shades of june 2010 here:

this coincides quite good with cobra's evil plan as well.

[Al_Dente]

This may be of interest:
(Recall that May 2011 was last year’s top)… (Also recall Oct was the 2011 bottom).
NYSE showed margin debt for April/May 2011 (for LONG buys on margin) peaking at $315bil
And credit balances then (for SHORT sales) were around $140b

Now compare that with April this year as that is their latest. May should be out soon.
NYSE only reports this monthly, as anything more timely would just be toooooo helpful, nonetheless it is useful.
ESPECIALLY useful if somebody could work it into CHART FORM and overlay a SPY on it. Anyone?
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/fac ... category=8
ps if u are not seeing 2012, just click 2010--current at the left bar

[Al_Dente]

Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index
“Consumer confidence rose last week for the third straight time as the drop in fuel costs helped shore up Americans’ finances and improved the buying climate”
http://www.bloomberg.com/consumer-comfort-index/

Weekly sectors: home improvement was best performer
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/indus ... ECTOR_SPDR

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKb-qfwbZ2M

[BullBear52x]

Hello weekender, everything is up, the bottom process is here, but $RHNYA didn't give me the look I am looking for. so, side ways action to continue a little longer I think. and Friday, that little thing was pointing down that makes you go Hmm....

Nice chart BB!! I don't think we have bottomed yet...we haven't hit the Uranus square to Pluto on June 24, wait until that comes...then we will probably see a bottom soon thereafter....IMHO...

Thnx TG, what do you make of this?

[BullBear52x]

Block trade 6/8/12

[BullBear52x]

The IF side of thing: <132.30 is sellable

bears need to see the turn here

Bears hopeful resistance

[Al_Dente]

The details emerge at zerohedge.com
zh suggests watching ”…Spanish sovereign bonds at the moment when the bond market understands what just happened…”

Here’s Bloomberg’s Spanish Government benchmark bond quote, updated hourly when open for trading (click “1M” one month, etc.)
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND
[Just for reference, Friday’s close was: 6.216%]

[edit: link courtesy champix]

[TWT]

SPX short-term bullish outcome option (Wave B countertrend rebound), which will be confirmed once/if price breaks above 1334.93

-At the June 4 low SPX has completed with a DZZ, from the April 2 top, the wave (A) of a larger Zig Zag.
-The current rebound is a countertrend bounce wave (B). We can assign an initial target in the range 1344 – 1363. The key upside area is located at the gap and upper BB = 1353.39. We have to keep an eye at the 50 d MA that is pointing down.
-A wave (B) can do almost anything on the upside therefore if price recovers above the 0.618 retracement = 1363 then we should not rule out an attempt to achieve a Double Top with a move back at the April 2 top.
-Time wise since the assumed wave (A) was completed in 43 days then the current wave (B) rebound should at lest need 16 trading days to develop, then during the last week of June, if the 0.618 is not breached, we could see the end of the wave (B)
-Once the wave (B) is in place I expect a large wave (C) down that could test the rising trend line support off the March 09 lows.

[xfradnex]

This may be of interest:
(Recall that May 2011 was last year’s top)… (Also recall Oct was the 2011 bottom).
NYSE showed margin debt for April/May 2011 (for LONG buys on margin) peaking at $315bil
And credit balances then (for SHORT sales) were around $140b

Now compare that with April this year as that is their latest. May should be out soon.
NYSE only reports this monthly, as anything more timely would just be toooooo helpful, nonetheless it is useful.
ESPECIALLY useful if somebody could work it into CHART FORM and overlay a SPY on it. Anyone?
http://www.nyxdata.com/nysedata/asp/fac ... category=8
ps if u are not seeing 2012, just click 2010--current at the left bar

Dr.Al it looks like, compaired to the 2000 and 2008 drops, this upcoming market drop will not be as hard. The 2012 SPX hill is wider and the Margin debt roll off is less pronouced. The Credit balance spike is much smaller. It does look like the second SPX spike after the Margin roll off is the key. if we had another month of data, we maybe able to see the Margin Debt peak(or Not).

[xfradnex]

Block trade 6/8/12

New Long Horse is XLF?

[cougar]

Volpinacci twitted on Friday, at 3:49 pm EDT “An unusually crowded weekly OpEx: lots of puts have to be murdered...until 4:15 pm EDT” and posted Chart #1

But the RAMPO that followed (Chart #2) was much more than an OpEx closing necessity and a new question appeared: WereTHEY front-running something?…and if “yes” …what was it?
Was it the Spanish weekend, with that funny BS press conf. and its interminable lies? Probably YES!
Thus, to make it simple, a hypothesis: some Smart Money took the risk of front-running the Euro-Casino, which, in turn, would have to front-run by good chunk of time the Greek Election.
Linda Yeuh made it clear by quoting Finland’s Katainen “We have to deal with the Spanish banks because then we can calm down the situation, especially before the Greek election”
BTW: also on Friday afternoon, some contrarian “big money herd” acquired a huge number of positions shorting Spain…Thus, we’ll have lots of moves to watch…

In the meantime, Volpinacci posted the next “RED ZONE” (Chart #3) where the battle of giants might take place. Since it is the 5th zone up, it should be exited by an impulsive wave down.

However, an opening above it, although unlikely , after the tepid Spanish news, would change the whole story.

[cougar]

$SPX daily (update): Nice bounce from the Fan Line. Probably will check again the 1330 zone.
Again: a gap above that previously successful resistance level will suggest additional bullishness.

[cougar]

$DJIA mo: ascending parabola of the bernank’s success predicts an asymptotic limit ~13406. Retest probable...later:

[pezhead9000]

ALERT: US FUTURES OPEN +19

[cougar]

$SPX KABUKI for a tentative reelection, compared with Bill’s and W'S (as incumbents)
Rule #1: do not allow more than 2 adjacent red bars
Rule #2: 3 mo. RAMPO into Nov

Surprisingly, a brief summer drop under the Jan low (like W's) does not destroy the chances of reelection

[Al_Dente]

Xfrandex
*W*O*W* excellent, thank u very much
I’ll watch for May numbers; they should be out soon
GL2u

[cougar]

GLD (short term) is in a moderate “buy mode”…but still coiling inside the territory of a previous gap: undecided, but on close some smart cookies bought it on higher vol.
Maybe those same guys were considering that the Spanish fandango move predicts stronger euro => lower US$ => gold UP…
However, longer term, a dilution of the Euro is inevitable…To that, add the gold assets that the Olives-Producing-Europe will have to present as collaterals to the ECB. When those gold bars will hit the market, I will be already short gold…

[uempel]

ALERT: US FUTURES OPEN +19

Update:

[xfradnex]

Nice chart http://www.thereformedbroker.com/

[TraderGirl]

Hello weekender, everything is up, the bottom process is here, but $RHNYA didn't give me the look I am looking for. so, side ways action to continue a little longer I think. and Friday, that little thing was pointing down that makes you go Hmm....

Nice chart BB!! I don't think we have bottomed yet...we haven't hit the Uranus square to Pluto on June 24, wait until that comes...then we will probably see a bottom soon thereafter....IMHO...

Thnx TG, what do you make of this?

There is a Bradley turn date of June 12, which has +/- 4 days of influence. Based on charts and astro's we could see a pullback Monday, then back up on Weds into Friday the 15th. We could get a very sharp pullback after the 15th... If the pullback is really sharp, then the next high around June 24-26th would most likely be a lower high, but if the pullback is light, we could get a higher high on 24-26th. I would like to think that the high around 24-26th would be a lower high, therefore technically making sense to have another sell-off into the end of June/beg of July.... Astro's and charts lend to a lower low...

Count wise, it looks like we could be forming a major wave (4) in an abc or double zig zag format...and then getting a wave (5) down... These summer corrections whether 2010 or 2011 look very similar in format, just different levels of volatility on each wave....