07/21/2012 Weekend Update

[BullBear52x]

Crash alert! really? sell first ask question later wouldn't be a bad idea for Bulls.

TLT analog.

DBV not bearish just yet to say that the sky is falling

Good luck in the week to come.

[Cobra]

PAGING COBRA: the link to vote for you fell off your "signature." Please post yr VOTE link, thx

The link is here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Thanks for the vote!

[joe-gamma]

Crash alert! really? sell first ask question later wouldn't be a bad idea for Bulls.

1.JPG

TLT analog.

6.JPG

DBV not bearish just yet to say that the sky is falling

2.JPG

Good luck in the week to come.

BullBear: is it okay if bears ask first-then sellmore?
Is you alert based on all ratios alignment above ema ? 20? or is it the confirmation of tvix breakout of dowtrend line? both? when was last signal?
Thanks for the great charts!

[Al_Dente]

Update on the “Total Volume” chart I posted last weekend.
Note that in one day (yesterday) we saw more daily total volume than we have seen all month.
So hopefully we will continue with a nice healthy correction to tag the channel line at, say, 38% fib retracement in the SPX 1340 zone.
We might even hold that bull uptrend channel line... then everything b fine.

“There is little success where there is little laughter.” [Andrew Carnegie]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_1LfT1MvzI

[MrMiyagi]

Mr MIYAGI: see any pbars fter Friday close?
Marketwtch had 137.75 aprox, and QQs had about 65.10ish, none on iwm

No aftermarket charting for me. The aftermarket bars are almost all the time actual trades in a thin market.

[Al_Dente]

Folks on the net r yapping about Spanish bond yields, so here is that Blmbrg chart:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND

And summarizing the Spanish bond chatter: Europe sees solid red as Spanish bond yields on the benchmark 10-year bond traded well above the key 7% mark that is considered unsustainable to satisfy its borrowing needs. Further uneasiness was provided by a regional government in Spain needing emergency aid. However, officials from Spain said the aid will not affect its borrowing plans. Additionally, Spain lowered its economic outlook, noting that its recession will spill over into next year.
The euro fell sharply versus the US dollar, hitting its lowest level since June 2010.
German producer prices fell more than expected in June…

[KeiZai]

Good evening Ws

I have a slightly mixed signals, can we have a big decline with declining dollar or will break the channel/wedge ? hmmm next week will be very interesting...anyways here is my dollar charts

Shor-term: last week I mentioned ABC correction process (wave4) and now we are heading toward 84 what is from EW perpective last wave in short-term
(P-bar note :I have a p-bar in one quite reliable platform to 82.30 maybe next target after wave 5)

Medium-term: fib 61.8 of wave 3 is 84.06 and upper resistance as well
(note: not 61.8 of wave 3 shown on this picture, but from the upper picture)

EDIT: btw target is same if you take 61.8 from medium wave 3

Long-term: divergence on weekly and again upper trendline at 84

I am looking to buy silver in the case of dollar weakness, this chart is euro denominated silver which use to show the path for silver in $
(note: neckline breakout?)

P.S: more charts tomorrow!

BTW thanks for PMs will reply later gtg

[KeiZai]

Update on the “Total Volume” chart I posted last weekend.
Note that in one day (yesterday) we saw more daily total volume than we have seen all month.
So hopefully we will continue with a nice healthy correction to tag the channel line at, say, 38% fib retracement in the SPX 1340 zone.
We might even hold that bull uptrend channel line... then everything b fine.

721wkndvolu.png

“There is little success where there is little laughter.” [Andrew Carnegie]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_1LfT1MvzI

hmmm 1340 sits with my dollar calculations, be careful guys could be bear trap again

Thanks all for great charts love this weekend thread

[KENA]

[quote="Al_Dente...

Thanks for those links Al!

PAGING KENA:
Boss: weren’t u long MLNX last week way b4 that 30 point gap???

PAGING COBRA: the link to vote for you fell off your "signature." Please post yr VOTE link, thx[/quote]

Hi Al_D ..Yes Amen, I sold at /near the Hi..This does not happen very often..This makes up for past poor/Mediocre trades.I,m a little late in getting back to you but been busy doing my Sat work and keeping the wife happy so I can trade next week.

[Al_Dente]

... PAGING KENA: Boss: weren’t u long MLNX last week way b4 that 30 point gap???

Hi Al_D ..Yes Amen, I sold at /near the Hi..This does not happen very often..This makes up for past poor/Mediocre trades.I,m a little late in getting back to you but been busy doing my Sat work and keeping the wife happy so I can trade next week.

[/quote]
KENA
Too bad I just put it on my “watch list” instead of longing it ...
Next time could u just send me a PM when u think a stock is going to leap 30p in one day, as those r my favorite kinds of stocks, thank u so much

[ZimZeb]

[uempel]

For the bulls: check out schaeffersresearch.com and read the Monday Morning Outlook: "Stop Trying to Outsmart the Market" by Ryan Detrick. He suggests that sentiment levels and accumulation of short positons are bullish. Good research, good read

For the bears: resistance at 1370 is strong, weekly summation shows it too, check out the chart:

[uempel]

spx072112MoW.png

Yeah, let's hope for the bounce

[uempel]

Al_ Dente, DMA 20 is just underneath at about 1357, bulls don't want SPX to fall below. An intraday dip might be ok, but in principle it's a no-no for the bulls

[xfradnex]

I found some ISEE data. So I made a graph with the S&P(close). On the last day of the graph the Index line is up and the others are down? Something unusual? Anyway, I have not figured much out about how to use this ISEE data. If there is a large orange spike, we may be near the top.

[ZimZeb]

Yeah, let's hope for the bounce

Or for some serious pull-up strength...

[xfradnex]

“…some are looking at this as the new carry trade, long the yen short the euro - the reverse of the original carry trade…”
http://soberlook.com/2012/07/collapsing ... cting.html

What? The mattress is not good enough? How can this type of investing make sense?

[xfradnex]

Folks on the net r yapping about Spanish bond yields, so here is that Blmbrg chart:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND

And summarizing the Spanish bond chatter: Europe sees solid red as Spanish bond yields on the benchmark 10-year bond traded well above the key 7% mark that is considered unsustainable to satisfy its borrowing needs. Further uneasiness was provided by a regional government in Spain needing emergency aid. However, officials from Spain said the aid will not affect its borrowing plans. Additionally, Spain lowered its economic outlook, noting that its recession will spill over into next year.
The euro fell sharply versus the US dollar, hitting its lowest level since June 2010.
German producer prices fell more than expected in June…

More http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/fina ... ilout.html. More good news..............

[KENA]

AL_Dente..I had no idea this would pop 30+ points..I track stocks on their pull back from hi's on the dn channel and the 50dma and where they may have a good point of res..What sector, yes sometimes.I only trade max 5 stocks at one time..For me any more are to hard to track. Also there is some safety in numbers because all stocks are not winners..If I get 3 out of 5 thats good..Last week was very good,an exception..Looks like all 5 will be winners and the 6 th one I added Thur is at break even..I can let you know when I get 1-2 or more on my list and that they are looking like they are ready to move.Right now it does not look to good to be adding longs.Hope you log on Sunday to read this..I would hate to retype this,I'm a slow typer.

[xfradnex]

I ran an odds calc of the S&P over 50 years. Using the exact combination of last 6 volume changes (up,down) and the last 3 days of price (up, down). 68 matching days were found. 40 of those days were up the next day. So there is 58.8% odds of a up day Monday based upon this history. Probably not enough samples to be significant.