Cobra's Market View

weekly stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=680&p=96299#p96299

google is the most overbought it has been since 2007. there it went up 11 straight weeks before a correction. the count now is 10. the rsi is at 95 and also the furthest it has ever been from it's exponential ma40 on the weekly:

KENA... Truly appreciate your prompt response. Have a nice weekend!

I want to comment on the very first chart showing institutional accumulation and distribution.

The institutions showed very steady hands throughout August and September with distribution declining throughout to decade lows.
They were not worried nor felt at serious risk for what the central bankers might or might not do.
In fact, the rising accumulation correctly anticipated the Draghi and Bernanke moves in September.

It is interesting to see distribution pick up now.
Prices are high and perhaps the news is being sold to a degree.
However, we are now entering an interesting time of year.
Many fund managers are evaluated and paid year-end bonuses based on performance through the end of October.
As a lot of long only managers are up double digit %. Me thinks they'll be inclined to be defensive next month to protect their gains.
So, I'll be watching to see if that distribution line continues to tick up as they raise cash, and i bet they could really run for cover if some kind of trouble breaks out.

The hedgies are less clear because they have been underperforming. They could be buyers of the pain trade if new highs keep getting pressed, but they could also be aggressive on the short side.

So, I think Bears may get some opportunities in October.

For this week, we may get some window dressing with quarter end on Friday, but again given the above I'll be watching to see if rallies get sold into.

Still watching currencies for equity clues. Not being very helpful though.

AUD JPY has gone into a triangle after setting up a teasing potential H&S. Resolution of the triangle may make or break the H&S.
CAD may have topped but it may just be a pullback. AUD looks like it may consolidate a bit before declaring its next move.

I added a few links to explain why those stocks are chosen.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=680&p=96299#p96299

Thank you all, something from my corner.
TLT still looking like a bear trap.bearish candle formation on SPY

Repost the mysterious chart from McCellan Financial





I consider them as a slightly long term trend guidance for the current market.

Hi weekenders

Natural gas : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=676&p=95750#p95750

Playing it with short DGAZ now with stop at BE
My target price is around 3.3 then I will decide what to do next

BullBear52x wrote:...bearish candle formation on SPY

hi bb
do u think friday's dividend payout screws up that candle
or it is what it is?

TYX charts (not update from thursday)

Big picture Clear 5 waves down, now with falling wedge breakout...looking to sell TMF maybe around 75+...trade of the year IMHO

I’m playing with the relative strength, 10 days
New one added is OEF (large caps = OEX proxy), as I wanted to see the intraday movement to/from large caps (OEX) to smalls (RUT, IWM).
I don’t usually trust a rally that prints weak small caps (and banks), but smalls do have a reputation for catching up/down with ginormous single day moves…… so we’ll see
I went back to the old ratios using SPY, so I question the influence of the SPY dividend payout

The influence of AAPL can’t be overlooked. AAPL is currently 7.5% of the OEX
And data as of 9/6/12 data shows AAPL still 19% of QQQ
http://etfdb.com/etf/QQQ/holdings/
And it’s hard to discount AAPL when it just sold a zillion iPhone5s in the time it took to post this. Here’s similar but using the relative strength of the equal weighted indices in pink
What jumps out here is the WEAKNESS in equal weighted QQQ (QQEW) aka the apple influence.
Am still tinkering with this one, but here it is…. comments/corrections welcomed

Al_Dente wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:...bearish candle formation on SPY

hi bb
do u think friday's dividend payout screws up that candle
or it is what it is?

I take at what it is, looking at SPX daily, it looks like Gravestone Doji, well, that too is bearish. besides Thursday bearish dragon fly doji. candle formation at the current level is bearish. down Monday will confirm it. Screaming sell that is gtg.

SP still looks like bull flag, but there is some mixed signals as DAX (and others EU indexes) probably completed short-term 5 waves structure, well we will see on monday


my 2cents:

I have a target 1494 cash before bigger correction take place until then I am scared to short, but break of the purple channel would be a good start for bears

Still looking to short SBUX but nothing initiated yet. Monday-Tuesday will be telling imo....
NOT A RECOMMENDATION

GDX Daily: Still monitoring the possible Bearish Bat Harmonic pattern as it's still in the range. I'm currently long NUGT BUT monitoring for possible change of course.

XLF barely closed below the previous high in March. Due for a pullback but upward movement too strong, pullback likely a buying opportunity. Still long some FAZ (not a recommendation)

JJG (Grains) going to stay in this range or breakdown? Will monitor...

KeiZai wrote:SP still looks like bull flag, but there is some mixed signals as DAX (and others EU indexes) probably completed short-term 5 waves structure, well we will see on monday
my 2cents:
I have a target 1494 cash before bigger correction take place until then I am scared to short, but break of the purple channel would be a good start for bears

SPcash.png

do u have one of these for russell, boss
thx

Don't know it's significance, maybe someone else can shed some light on if there's a correlation historically or not BUT there's a disconnect recently between LUMBER and Homebuilders (XHB)