Cobra's Market View

GM, Chart pattern, looks like the up arrow is destined.

very small double top (twzzer top), so might see pullback here, I just wish the pullback won't be too large.

VIX is at support or SPY:VIX is at resistance, wait for all this to cool down first I guess.

Cobra wrote:very small double top (twzzer top), so might see pullback here, I just wish the pullback won't be too large.

If large then retest of the overnight high failed?

Check GOOG guys, 8 or 9 days up in a row, above upper bollinger band, MACD max'd, would expect a pull back here. Have gone short.

SPX: I maintain the short term map as long as < 1467

Folks,

Gap up when not many expected. Bears fighting the inevitable. Though institutional investors are showing distribution, the price is not going down as much. The $2 billion a day seems to be working out OK. Someone mentioned rebalancing portfolios before the end of the quarter (was it Al?) that seems to make sense from the market behavior. I say we go higher before Europe closes.

the philly fed state coincident indexes were released today. I've discussed them a month ago, so to sum it up: a level of under 50 in the 3 month diffusion index usually occurs only before recessions. a level of 30 or less occurs usually at recessions:
h[url]ttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Aut9ntaINrs/UDOX5jhd4cI/AAAAAAAAPnQ/37kai25t3iM/s1600/PhillyFedStateJuly2012.jpg[/url]
the july level was 34, august's level is 24. i believe the us is entering a recession right now, and ECRI and Hussman will be vindicated in the future (although their initial timing was wrong). considering the lowered guidance, lowered estimates and probably lower government spending next year, the market is now relying solely on the fed for rescue. i don't believe liquidity alone will be enough to justify the earnings multiples that will be required to maintain current levels.

pullback as expected, now support area. wait.

i've put the map of dec 2007 (start of last recession) vs aug 2012 for better visual of what i stated:
there are 16 red and pinks now vs 12 in dec 07.

intraday, SPY:VIX double top, intaday can be all kind of crazy opportunities

triangle still in play?

longer trends

ocassional observer wrote:i've put the map of dec 2007 (start of last recession) vs aug 2012 for better visual of what i stated:

coincident indexes dec 2007 vs aug 2012.png

there are 16 red and pinks now vs 12 in dec 07.

I was half asleep during ECON 102

Cobra wrote:pullback as expected, now support area. wait.

Wow target hit exactly.

well, at least target reached. wait. a consolidation here would be perfect.

It is far too early to hail Draghi's plan as a solution to the crisis.

The central bank has bought no bonds yet and its members are already sending conflicting signals over how the plan will be implemented.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/ ... 9A20120925

SPY...sitting at resistance....

Relative strength
The OEX drop is unusual
It may be the asset-allocation portfolios divesting some stocks for quarter-end
They have until Friday to re-balance