Cobra's Market View

Many reasons why 1314 is tough to crack, here another one:

ES

OK, the 4th black bar. I expect more pullbacks. Again, I don't think we'll see huge up today.

Goldman Sachs sure fell out of bed this morning, on volume too. Can't find any news.

Want to start by saying I appreciate this form very much Cobra. I am new to this game but a sponge and have learned alot from all who contribute here so thank you. Can someone please tell me if the way I am looking at the Russ2k monthly chart is wrong. I know this forum is mainly for short term day traders but I am trying to align myself with the monthly trend which to me looks like its about to turn. Reason I believe this is because the negative divergence forming in the macd histagram and also the ROC. Not to mention we may get a monthly close back inside the bollinger bands (which I though normally gives a sell signal). Am I looking at this all wrong. Thank you for your help in advance.

gator11 wrote:Want to start by saying I appreciate this form very much Cobra. I am new to this game but a sponge and have learned alot from all who contribute here so thank you. Can someone please tell me if the way I am looking at the Russ2k monthly chart is wrong. I know this forum is mainly for short term day traders but I am trying to align myself with the monthly trend which to me looks like its about to turn. Reason I believe this is because the negative divergence forming in the macd histagram and also the ROC. Not to mention we may get a monthly close back inside the bollinger bands (which I though normally gives a sell signal). Am I looking at this all wrong. Thank you for your help in advance.

You may be right but from my experiences, divergence is not a reliable signal especially what you use here (MACD HIST and ROC) are momentum indicators which a negative divergence only means a weaker in up momentum that does not always translate into a lower price (momentum and price are 2 difference things). I mean sometimes it takes fairly long long time for a negative divergence to work, so personally I won't read much into divergence here. I'm not saying that RUT won't drop, I'm just saying I won't trust divergence.

Cobra Impulse. This is still pretty much a raw data, i.e. basically a trend following system without any stop loss or profit taking or 2nd entry mechanism, but it already has 50% winning rate even measured since year 1990. So I'm confident it'll replace the ST Model eventually. Yeah!

Cobra wrote:

gator11 wrote:Want to start by saying I appreciate this form very much Cobra. I am new to this game but a sponge and have learned alot from all who contribute here so thank you. Can someone please tell me if the way I am looking at the Russ2k monthly chart is wrong. I know this forum is mainly for short term day traders but I am trying to align myself with the monthly trend which to me looks like its about to turn. Reason I believe this is because the negative divergence forming in the macd histagram and also the ROC. Not to mention we may get a monthly close back inside the bollinger bands (which I though normally gives a sell signal). Am I looking at this all wrong. Thank you for your help in advance.

You may be right but from my experiences, divergence is not a reliable signal especially what you use here (MACD HIST and ROC) are momentum indicators which a negative divergence only means a weaker in up momentum that does not always translate into a lower price (momentum and price are 2 difference things). I mean sometimes it takes fairly long long time for a negative divergence to work, so personally I won't read much into divergence here. I'm not saying that RUT won't drop, I'm just saying I won't trust divergence.

Agreed with Cobra on DV. I will stick to MACD Hist. in this case, so far you can not say sell until this month is over and that MACD Hist must be lower than last month.

gator11 wrote:Want to start by saying I appreciate this form very much Cobra. I am new to this game but a sponge and have learned alot from all who contribute here so thank you. Can someone please tell me if the way I am looking at the Russ2k monthly chart is wrong. I know this forum is mainly for short term day traders but I am trying to align myself with the monthly trend which to me looks like its about to turn. Reason I believe this is because the negative divergence forming in the macd histagram and also the ROC. Not to mention we may get a monthly close back inside the bollinger bands (which I though normally gives a sell signal). Am I looking at this all wrong. Thank you for your help in advance.

Check this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p ... &listNum=4


And I'd like to add: put in a stoploss at 770, that could be a baseline of a H&S formation.

Hi Cobra,

Can we see this model in any of your public charts as yet ? V good info !

Love ur work as always !

Cheers !


Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 25, 2011 10:17 am
Cobra Impulse. This is still pretty much a raw data, i.e. basically a trend following system without any stop loss or profit taking or 2nd entry mechanism, but it already has 50% winning rate even measured since year 1990. So I'm confident it'll replace the ST Model eventua

VIX lossing support, target at 15-15.4

Someone is out to get the bears.

Cobra wrote:Cobra Impulse. This is still pretty much a raw data, i.e. basically a trend following system without any stop loss or profit taking or 2nd entry mechanism, but it already has 50% winning rate even measured since year 1990. So I'm confident it'll replace the ST Model eventually. Yeah!

Cool! Keep up the great work!

Mario TR wrote:VIX lossing support, target at 15-15.4

Scary huh? no one buy puts to protect their position, QE3 anyone?

All the permabears here, it won't pay to be a bear until QE2 is over assuming that there is no QE3. We have all sorts of negative world events going on and the market climb is relentless. The correction was probably over at 1250 low a few days ago. Onward toward 1400-1500 then maybe start thinking about a good sized pullback. AAPL is back above its 50dma and it up 25 points in just a little over a week. AAPL will probably trading at 800-1000 within 3-4 years with their earnings.

AK84 wrote:Hi Cobra,

Can we see this model in any of your public charts as yet ? V good info !

Love ur work as always !

Cheers !


Postby Cobra » Fri Mar 25, 2011 10:17 am
Cobra Impulse. This is still pretty much a raw data, i.e. basically a trend following system without any stop loss or profit taking or 2nd entry mechanism, but it already has 50% winning rate even measured since year 1990. So I'm confident it'll replace the ST Model eventua

Still working on it. Will replace ST Model and will issue signals publicly. After applying all the tech used in ST Model (which not yet as I said, it's still the raw data - the primary signal), I think the new model will beat ST Model so no need ST Model anymore.

Looks like 1315 will be broken today:

Channel top.

uempel wrote:Looks like 1315 will be broken today

What is the next significant resistance level in your model?

wow, I was wrong AGAIN. it could keep rising like this. Too bad, I missed the morning entry.