01/24/2013 Live Update

[Harapa]

Big hand for Harapa, one of the only guys here who got it 100% right

Credit for all this goes to VIXies.
Performance of "Harapa VIXies SPY Setup" since going live

[Cobra]

Indeed Triple Top is rare. now it's C&H, targeting 1499ish.

[uempel]

Volume by price doesn't show any support for Apple for awhile, fwiw

I posted this chart about 2 months ago - I still think that aapl near term low was not met today.

[ccash04]

hard to get long when market is so stretched esp above my 10 and 2 BBs, and its right at the top now generally my rule is not to buy when its above there... but with vix so low maybe a ratio of sorts is in order.

[Cobra]

this bull has legs.

[SigmaEcho]

Indeed Triple Top is rare. now it's C&H, targeting 1499ish.

morning high/late sell off, instead of morning dip/late rally?

[skittlesmds]

I guess the only thing that could cause a significant pullback in this market would be World War III.

[SigmaEcho]

Volume by price doesn't show any support for Apple for awhile, fwiw

I posted this chart about 2 months ago - I still think that aapl near term low was not met today.

The attachment 3.png is no longer available

[ballatines]

I guess the only thing that could cause a significant pullback in this market would be World War III.

maybe not ... this will trigger QE4 ..

the market will fall only when bear surrender even a lot of people is buying AAPL now

[L_T]

Need to channel some Hussman here for a different perspective (my emphasis added): http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130122.htm

Fund Notes

As of last week, the market has reestablished the most negative variants of nearly every “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield” syndromes we follow. Even considering the effect of constructive trend-following measures and continued quantitative easing, we estimate a significantly negative prospective return/risk profile for stocks when the ensemble of present conditions is taken together. With commercial paper yields right near their 10-month average, we know of at least some normally insightful investors who seem willing to hold out for short-term yields to advance 10 or 12 basis points before abandoning a bullish stance. This may very well “keep it simple,” but in view of presently overextended conditions, it also inadvertently risks wandering into “stupid.” Einstein once said that things should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. My impression is that an overreliance on aphorisms like “the trend is your friend” and “don’t fight the Fed” raises the likelihood of overstaying one’s welcome at the point that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions (particularly on longer-maturity debt) come into play.

[BigChief]

Here is the hourly chart of the SPY, looking for a divergence on MACD and RSI, also on the 4hr chart and 5min if you pull those up, will add puts if this occurs. With the VIX this low and people giving up on downside, sounds like a great time for being short.

[uempel]

Update daily SPX:

[TraderGirl]

HeHe....

[BullBear52x]

What I learned from NFLX and AAPL move today was the market will do the opposite to the herd mentality.

[Tutti]

HeHe....

Last time AAPL opened up -10%, it was down another 10% 2 weeks later:

AAPL 10% Nose dive.GIF (9.08 KiB) Viewed 3656 times

[hiram]

Need to channel some Hussman here for a different perspective (my emphasis added): http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130122.htm

Fund Notes

As of last week, the market has reestablished the most negative variants of nearly every “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield” syndromes we follow. Even considering the effect of constructive trend-following measures and continued quantitative easing, we estimate a significantly negative prospective return/risk profile for stocks when the ensemble of present conditions is taken together. With commercial paper yields right near their 10-month average, we know of at least some normally insightful investors who seem willing to hold out for short-term yields to advance 10 or 12 basis points before abandoning a bullish stance. This may very well “keep it simple,” but in view of presently overextended conditions, it also inadvertently risks wandering into “stupid.” Einstein once said that things should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. My impression is that an overreliance on aphorisms like “the trend is your friend” and “don’t fight the Fed” raises the likelihood of overstaying one’s welcome at the point that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions (particularly on longer-maturity debt) come into play.

hussman has been on the wrong side of the trade for years now his returns are horrible loves to talk alot but not much in the way of results, i wouldnt put much stock in anything he has to say. i believe managers like him are still in shell shock from the crash and are now afraid to trade not to say he was ever a star to begin with. his growth fund is a huge dog!

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/theFunds.html

click link and see for yourself, low fees dont mean much if your loosing money....


Hiram

[Al_Dente]

Big hand for Harapa, one of the only guys here who got it 100% right

+ + + + + + +

[kenttown]

I guess the only thing that could cause a significant pullback in this market would be World War III.

Isn't war good for stocks?

[uempel]

Volume by price doesn't show any support for Apple for awhile, fwiw

I posted this chart about 2 months ago - I still think that aapl near term low was not met today.

The attachment 3.png is no longer available

SigmaEcho, my hypothesis

[Cobra]

rebound as expected. key time, bulls must make a decisive new high on the rebound, no failure allowed.