Cobra's Market View

Out of Bounds wrote:Is anyone else getting crazy BBand readings on 5 minute SPY? I show between 156.7 and 152.91 using 20,20.

That can NOT be correct [/McEnroe voice]

BB 20,20 does not make sense. The first number is your SMA setting and the second setting is your standard devation from the SMA. The typical SD is 2. I assume you are missing a dot b/w 2 and 0 on your second setting, like this 20, 2.0.

Out of Bounds wrote:

gasprice wrote:THE TOP IS IN: HOW A COUNTRY WITH A POPULATION OF 1 MILLION TOOK DOWN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY!!!!

Let's get realistic folks and recognize the media has to hype up any story with the VIX sub 20, which it will largely stay for years to come, typical vol cycles that I've already discussed.

I wouldn't underestimate how a very small but highly leveraged system could impact other similar but much larger systems. not saying Armageddon is imminent but there is real risk.

agree with OOB--but also adding the key point here is not the event--but what it is showing you about what is going on behind the scenes. al posted something in afterhours re euro banks leveraged 26x. this is a nice idea--but the key problem is this assumes a somewhat concrete value for the assets and leverage. that is the issue derivative values in many cases cannot be (or certainly are not currently) being defined as anything remotely absolute. So the assets that are leveraged are not fixed in value--and the degree of leverage is not fixed in value. or if you want to think they are "relatively fixed in value during normal situations" then "they are not fixed in value during extreme situations". as you see the political situation shift around the idea is what if it becomes functionally possible for political guys to re-create these "semi normal situations" where say 50% of derivatives have some value that "work" on a day to day basis.

think of it this way--in a large shift the 500-1000 trillion nominal value (we just don't know as not all these things are on any books or are able to be valued) which have a ball park 10% real value (on average over all of them) could create a situation where you (the usa) suddenly needs 10 trillion by thursday (not unlike Cyprus % wise with say 24 billion in gdp and needing 17 billion (or at least a quick 10) to keep the doors open). like OOB not currently focused on armageddon--but just trying to get across the size of the issues.

amazing as it seems--everything is based on trust--you trust your stuff will get cleared. you trust the food is ok. and you trust the govs to act within bonds. even if you are not the trusting type. remove this and things get odd in strange ways.

so the two dangers are the size of the leverage which is really mostly underrated. and more to the point the idea of trust which is far more subtle than first glance may convey. as far as vol cycles--i am not disputing your idea of sub 20--but anything traded by humans has a much better chance of +2 point standard deviation for a reasonable length of time. i admire your confidence in your work--and i am sorry to say i have little confidence in humans under pressure real or imaginary.

all just my opinion good luck with your trades

Tabby wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Is anyone else getting crazy BBand readings on 5 minute SPY? I show between 156.7 and 152.91 using 20,20.

That can NOT be correct [/McEnroe voice]

BB 20,20 does not make sense. The first number is your SMA setting and the second setting is your standard devation from the SMA. The typical SD is 2. I assume you are missing a dot b/w 2 and 0 on your second setting, like this 20, 2.0.

I posted it incorrectly. My settings are 20,2.0. Weird readings though.

The scenario you describe is basically the same as the mortgage derivative meltdown where a few bad loans in a loan bundle went bad bringing down the house of cards, cyprus could be the equivalent of the one or two bad loans. So I agree, don't underestimate the power of "small"

Mr. T wrote:

heavenskrow wrote:VXX held support at channel, less go!

Now to break it and dump out!!!

Want $19 handle

Want $21.5 target

jungle trunks wrote:The scenario you describe is basically the same as the mortgage derivative meltdown where a few bad loans in a loan bundle went bad bringing down the house of cards, cyprus could be the equivalent of the one or two bad loans. So I agree, don't underestimate the power of "small"

sorry, meant this to be in response to taggard's description

Out of Bounds wrote:

Tabby wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Is anyone else getting crazy BBand readings on 5 minute SPY? I show between 156.7 and 152.91 using 20,20.

That can NOT be correct [/McEnroe voice]

BB 20,20 does not make sense. The first number is your SMA setting and the second setting is your standard devation from the SMA. The typical SD is 2. I assume you are missing a dot b/w 2 and 0 on your second setting, like this 20, 2.0.

I posted it incorrectly. My settings are 20,2.0. Weird readings though.

Found the problem. unchecked the "size to fit studies" button on the y axis and everything reset. Values are much more reasonable now. Some sort of bug in their system - that shouldn't happen.

Depending on how market close today, I see one reliable indicator telling a red day tomorrow so far. Also, there is another indicator showing that market is topping based on today rallying (80%). However, my MT model has not been confirmed yet.

Yup,just waiting for 155.83 then benny will bring her down

TOS still showing Gap at the peak, maybe the market want to fill that first? Oy, 5dma resistance here too.

it's clear on 60 min chart why price consolidates here.

Short term swing set up, sell the rip, we may go flat and drift upward from here but I think this is good entry.

Which gap will fill first?

Out of Bounds wrote:

Tabby wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Is anyone else getting crazy BBand readings on 5 minute SPY? I show between 156.7 and 152.91 using 20,20.

That can NOT be correct [/McEnroe voice]

BB 20,20 does not make sense. The first number is your SMA setting and the second setting is your standard devation from the SMA. The typical SD is 2. I assume you are missing a dot b/w 2 and 0 on your second setting, like this 20, 2.0.

I posted it incorrectly. My settings are 20,2.0. Weird readings though.

SPY opened 155.72. Current BB 153.95 , 155.07,156.18 and current SPY price is 155.51. We have a wide BB due to gap up SPY. It takes while till it correct itself.
Maybe a boring day till closer to FOMC time.

Long.
Have been sitting still.
The Jackals are hard at work (up and down), and I don't want to play.

My composite trend signal is up.
My summation index signal is neutral and will flip to down if yesterday's low is broken (preferably on a closing basis).

I expect some more antics around FOMC.
Once that clears, the market will let us know which way it wants to go.
The trend is still up.
I plan to do nothing, but if my summation signal goes down, I may get defensive.

Added short position 155.36

gonna go back to sleep until FED
i really like GIS but waiting for a pullback from earnings breakout, gonna do a post on it later

Out of Bounds wrote:Added short position 155.36

average is 154.78 now.

Out of Bounds wrote:Added short position 155.36

Stop?

I want to make a move myself but it doesn't seem to be moving with much conviction.

L_T wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Added short position 155.36

Stop?

I want to make a move myself but it doesn't seem to be moving with much conviction.

I don't use stops. I recommend them, but I don't use them.