04/20/2013 Weekend Update

[uempel]

A partial retracement to the FLD and subsequent drop is expected next in the SPX Hurst Analysis. Also Nasdaq, Euro, Gold, 30 yr Bond, Crude & US$ covered.

http://sentienttrader.com/hurst-trading ... pril-2013/

Royal, thanks for the link - but the lingo annoys me if each analyst uses his own phraseology in order to explain a pattern it's kind of confusing. Instead of suggesting that the market is rising next week (his H) and tanking afterwards (his G) sentimenttrader uses a scripture which doesn't mean anything to me. I don't want to learn a new alphabet when visiting a new TA website. Bugs me, doesn't it bug you?

I try to use the classical terms out of Murphy's scripture and to stick to em...

PS: I forgot to mention it, market is in wave UI-56-B-ZZZ

[uempel]

I've got a good DAX signal for tomorrow. If it's bullish (as I presume) DAX can rise to 7650 - that's nearly 200 points. The only thing I don't like about this bullish scenario is that the full stochastics on the weekly are still a bit to high, I'd prefer them to be a bit lower. But the the daily stochastics look great.

Dax : BT nearing completion / or already completed...will see what happens next week but I am more interested in longs atm

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=878&p=125412#p125412

DAX-BT-21.png

R2K: first ZZ likely done, question is if we are working on a connector (B) /more likely/ or current correction is done

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=891&p=127331#p127331

R2K-21.png

IWM: same here

IWM-21.png

ES/SPX: either done or one more leg down before bounce/new highs - It wouldn't suprised me as too many people are watching HnS and that's no good, market is biatch

SPX-21-4.png

GS: could be in 4th wave of C, structure from the highs is corrective = I am expecting at least one more high after current decline

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=879&p=125650#p125650 (last chart)

GS-21.png

---------------peace--------------

JD.png

[BullBear52x]

TLT short term got the 2x top going, need break out to void it. but long term look is still going strong.

[BullBear52x]

Magic 31 is here once again.

CCI is at 161.8% support

[BullBear52x]

Bottom fishing
CLF

DBA

[KeiZai]

I've got a good DAX signal for tomorrow. If it's bullish (as I presume) DAX can rise to 7650 - that's nearly 200 points. The only thing I don't like about this bullish scenario is that the full stochastics on the weekly are still a bit to high, I'd prefer them to be a bit lower. But the the daily stochastics look great.

Yep momentum is not so healthy I am looking for snapback rally only to same level as u (HnS neckline backtest) there we will see what happens but likely more downside ahead in medium term

[BullBear52x]

I've got a good DAX signal for tomorrow. If it's bullish (as I presume) DAX can rise to 7650 - that's nearly 200 points. The only thing I don't like about this bullish scenario is that the full stochastics on the weekly are still a bit to high, I'd prefer them to be a bit lower. But the the daily stochastics look great.

Yep momentum is not so healthy I am looking for snapback rally only to same level as u (HnS neckline backtest) there we will see what happens but likely more downside ahead in medium term

Monday morning where the money will be made for intraday trade. like all of your charts, and thank you for all great posts, I am busy this weekend and next week my trading will be spotty. GLTA.

[KeiZai]

Bottom fishing
CLF

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DBA

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I am fishing here too, wave 4 then maybe one more leg down? Either way bigger retrace should happen anytime soon

[Al_Dente]

[Bespoke, today]
“A little over 200 companies have reported earnings so far this season, and as shown below, 58% of them have beaten consensus earnings estimates. This is the exact same "beat rate" we saw last earnings season.”

“Unfortunately, top-line revenue numbers haven't been pretty. As shown below, 43.9% of the companies that have reported have beaten revenue estimates, which would be the weakest reading seen since the financial crisis. Last earnings season, we saw a big bounce in revenue beats after two very weak quarters, but it looks now like we're reverting back to what we saw in the middle of 2012.”

ps: Vote Cobra Sunday: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[KeiZai]

I've got a good DAX signal for tomorrow. If it's bullish (as I presume) DAX can rise to 7650 - that's nearly 200 points. The only thing I don't like about this bullish scenario is that the full stochastics on the weekly are still a bit to high, I'd prefer them to be a bit lower. But the the daily stochastics look great.

Yep momentum is not so healthy I am looking for snapback rally only to same level as u (HnS neckline backtest) there we will see what happens but likely more downside ahead in medium term

Monday morning where the money will be made for intraday trade. like all of your charts, and thank you for all great posts, I am busy this weekend and next week my trading will be spotty. GLTA.

Thanks bud u know I can say the same for your work and others as well..great board with lot of great traders here!

[gappy]

Still think the bullion banks are in dire straits. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZ6NwE0NxVA

[Auole]

Uempel: That was classic. Good laugh on that one.

PS: I forgot to mention it, market is in wave UI-56-B-ZZZ

A Fran P.S: I really do look seriously at every body's work here. Ewavers, multiwavers (Al Spaghetti); couldn't make it without Cobra's measured moves

[Auole]

Here's back at y'all. John Carter's Squeezie charts. Works best on 60 min. If red dot on 'squeeze' indicator, the move is ify, insecure, not reliable.
Note no red dot YET on the Emini hourly. @ bottom, TTM wave indicator we're in yellow - consolidation mode. ADX, single red line, top indicator = trend strength.
My best guess here is intraday trade it only as there may yet be some up move before the nice May go away and get some gardening done. IAT (Regional Banks) looking
strong to upside/ XLF not so strong at least on hourly so what? maybe nice down before up? [confiscation, illegal taxation, holidays on the horizon, trouble is a brewing]
Cobra, did U notice the DOW the weakest of our anemic American indices Friday?

GDX. ugh. day at a time doin' it only. Per Squeezie chart looking like next move may be a bit down before next up. Apply Fib retrace and fan to it on both daily/4-2 Hrly and 4 min for trade help is what I do. My miner stocks have such a black eye I can only see next resistance test per fib confluences @ $29.60. Actually I'm looking for something else (good volume, nice sell & go away previous May charts), to trade for awhile. Do you seasoned and wise traders here think it best to just stick with an IWM trade? Be kind pleeze; this is only my 2nd May trading ordeal. I do realize though that we are at the 3rd in 20 yrs 13-34 MA crossover precipice.
GDX 4 hourly FIB study: {Never ever do anything without MarketForecaster - 3rd from bottom.

GDX Hourly squeeze study:

GDX 4 min. FIB + squeeze study:

[ClarkW]

Magic 31 is here once again.

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CCI is at 161.8% support

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BB: What are your thoughts on filling this gap? Bounce first?

[ClarkW]

Al: You first brought Gerald Appel Rule to my attention. We have 2 of the 3 with the Transports as the last to cross. With that said last two times $COMPQ and $SPX crossed they were false alarmed

[ClarkW]

David Larew's (New Trading System's) setup on $VIX signaled sell

[BullBear52x]

Magic 31 is here once again.

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CCI is at 161.8% support

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BB: What are your thoughts on filling this gap? Bounce first?

Gap support area but with 3rd time is the charm for bears kind of chart, no buy signal I can see, not on the mid to long term for sure, on short term swing set up next dip is buy-able if no new low.

[BullBear52x]

futures are strong, I think gap over 20 ma is on the MM's mind for spy. got to get up early once the volume start to pick up it will be fun, I feel the big move coming already. big breakfast is awaiting.

[Al_Dente]

Al: You first brought Gerald Appel Rule to my attention. We have 2 of the 3 with the Transports as the last to cross. With that said last two times $COMPQ and $SPX crossed they were false alarmed

I posted an update on cobra’s “trading signals” 4/18
It’s still current on my watch
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/04 ... g-signals/

[TWT]

$DAX: If today´s gap is not closed a wave (B) should be underway #dax #elliottwave