Cobra's Market View

heavenskrow wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:Haha our trading styles are pretty much the same then.

Even for short duration trades....it usually consists of 100% of my portfolio.

I don't mind losing 2-3% to make 12-17% and on a day trading time-frame, the market quickly tells you if you are wrong or right which is great....And usually for me, these day-trades eventually evolve to the swing positions if the market keeps adding more reasons for you to hold...

LOL, all-in is the only way to boost the portfolio, but also, give you a heart-attack if it goes against you, like in Aug-Oct with the big one day moves, was down $250k in one day, but by the end of the day was neutral, but was sweating it the whole time...

Now, the markets a little more tame... but Im more calculated on my big moves...

damn 250k holy sh*t... u have more balls than me[/quote]

No paper trading.... Don't feel like balls when your down....

oldpigwang wrote:Cobra ban: Do you still think retest yesterday's high valid?

yes. NORMALLY. it's very rare the up leg we had was just one legged.

That said, I shorted this morning, because I strictly follow the market.

So although I do expect a rebound somewhere to revisit yesterday's high at least, but I'm not buying this dip yet.

GREAT EYES BULLY BEAR!

bullybear wrote:Close near here is high potential for gap up open with Trin now 4+ -- as BullBear say, early bird get the worm -- but only if interested -- I know what Bear going to say

earlybd2.gif

ClarkW wrote:GREAT EYES BULLY BEAR!

bullybear wrote:Close near here is high potential for gap up open with Trin now 4+ -- as BullBear say, early bird get the worm -- but only if interested -- I know what Bear going to say

earlybd2.gif

almost forgot about TRIN. maybe I should take my profits near close.

Thanks alot Cobra.

frankthetank wrote:Looks like exhaustion on gold and silver. This may be the start of up turn in commodities. Oil is still over 100 dollars a barrel.

I don't trade gold or silver, but I watch them for market sentiment. Read that if silver holds at 2615, it is bullish for both gold and silver.... FWIW

I am personally looking for the markets to be bullish into beg of March, then "possibly" a downturn and a secondary top in June. Meantime, gold could go gangbusters at that time with Euro worries potentially into a Sept/Oct 2012 market bottom.... FWIW

So, all-in on bottoms, until March... is my strategy... until it doesn't' work...

Cobra wrote:

noob wrote:

Cobra wrote:

SigmaEcho wrote:Hi Cobra,

In the last 80 year the 3rd presidential years have been up 18 out of 20 times, so I have read. So odds favor SPX closes the year above 1257. How do you value these stats?

Thanks

I won't bet 1257 simply because of this statistics.

Is the target 1290-1310 still valid?

that target is just reference, don't trade based on that.

right now the odds are, assume we close right here, then the selling isn't over yet, and yesterday's high is likely revisited. All based on the past patterns.

Thanks, but 1250 seems to be holding up. The rationale for more down ahead is this is rarely one legged because of MDD? Thanks.

Early bird? (bull) I see nothing here. sell on....

BullBear52x wrote:Early bird? (bull) I see nothing here. sell on....

YES, this is why I keep 50% of the shorts ON.

Bull = Possible Channel support? , Bear = gap down H&S?

Bulls will get really lucky if 124.5 hold up this round, I am eyeing 123.5 still. anyways, I see no buyers to put any good word to it.

TraderGirl wrote:

frankthetank wrote:Looks like exhaustion on gold and silver. This may be the start of up turn in commodities. Oil is still over 100 dollars a barrel.

I don't trade gold or silver, but I watch them for market sentiment. Read that if silver holds at 2615, it is bullish for both gold and silver.... FWIW

I am personally looking for the markets to be bullish into beg of March, then "possibly" a downturn and a secondary top in June. Meantime, gold could go gangbusters at that time with Euro worries potentially into a Sept/Oct 2012 market bottom.... FWIW

So, all-in on bottoms, until March... is my strategy... until it doesn't' work...

Thanks everyone for the feedback. I took profits on my zsl and slv puts but will short again on a bounce...

KENA wrote:Is this going to be it and go dn from here or are we going to go up one more time for an "E" move to test the recent highs then dn.I may be wrong but I am leaning to one more push up to finish the "E" move.Lets hear some comments. My Stock research is turning up more shorts..Longs are thin.(Swing Trades)

I am agreeable with one more push up. The bullish sentiment is high enough that dip buyers should come in. Also, it seems only fitting and poetic that this year should end with a final short squeeze to push the index to a positive return for the year.

well, guess that's it for today. as I said a moment ago, the selling most likely isn't over, but the bigger picture, bulls are not over yet, at least not proven. Thank you guys, I'll say you tomorrow.

cougar wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Early bird? (bull) I see nothing here. sell on....

YES, this is why I keep 50% of the shorts ON.

same here let 50% run.


Thanks Cobra and everyone GLTA

Well we all know it's gonna be positive jobs numbers again. Holding shorts overnight is clearly insane. Also, the pending home sales might get a boost too due to the recent good news in the real estate market.

noob wrote:

Cobra wrote:

noob wrote:

Cobra wrote:

SigmaEcho wrote:Hi Cobra,

In the last 80 year the 3rd presidential years have been up 18 out of 20 times, so I have read. So odds favor SPX closes the year above 1257. How do you value these stats?

Thanks

I won't bet 1257 simply because of this statistics.

Is the target 1290-1310 still valid?

that target is just reference, don't trade based on that.

right now the odds are, assume we close right here, then the selling isn't over yet, and yesterday's high is likely revisited. All based on the past patterns.

Thanks, but 1250 seems to be holding up. The rationale for more down ahead is this is rarely one legged because of MDD? Thanks.

yes, so more likely a small dip tomorrow morning then reverses up. again NORMALLY.

Think we gap down 10+ points tomorrow.Dollar had too big of change today for 1 day down.Something we are not hearing/seeingw is going on. Findout tomorrow?e

BullBear52x wrote:Early bird? (bull) I see nothing here. sell on....

Trin smelly at close

Selling before sh*t hitting the fan???

johnnywa wrote:Think we gap down 10+ points tomorrow.Dollar had too big of change today for 1 day down.Something we are not hearing/seeingw is going on. Findout tomorrow?e