03/14/2012 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

need break the blue line decisively.

[jarbo456]

Jarbo

re the spx 1550-1650. using a longer term monthly chart spx is over the 78 fib AFTER failing just under it last time up in 2011. That is a decent looking chart so far.

while i am not a longer term bull people often forget that with inflation based discounting a hit in 2012 of 1550 is not the same as 2000--maybe off by 30-60% in buying power someplace depending on how you factor it. i am not saying spx is a great deal--i am only suggesting it is not as bad a deal as it first appears.

as to what would do the trick?

1. as a rule things get "nutty" at tops and you get absurd spikes (up and down on a monthly).
2. ideally something like Greece leaving the euro zone--which is bot not sold. so that there is some sort of anticipated bummer that doesn't work out badly and then they are all sure "like dudes the bear is all over and like that".
3. what creates the top or the real move down? maybe japan either doing a controlled default? maybe Spain screwing things up after it was not supposed to. Certainly the side effects of liquidity are likely to have some kind of hideous effect.

the key thing is "total loss of confidence" in the central banks short term--that is either justified (voters get upset and start putting controls or slowing down responses by larger player.

but in any case if there is some silly ass whacky move like the last tops--it could be aapl participates and that would be the idea behind a possible move to 700-800.

i am not really forecasting this stuff--but i have been thinking about it for a while. the action that people are upset about (continued moves up) often on this site--is suggestive of the the action near tops. but near in the sense of 1 month to 1 year (again using monthly chart spx). for now given we may have just created rough support at the 78 fib of the last large spx move down you have to at least be open to the idea stuff could do the wacky thing.

good luck

interesting. i actually have very little idea to any of this - i know that a lot of tech analysts at the banks have gone full blow bulltard, but i'm not sure if you can go counter trend in a market that's obviously controlled by central bank liquidity.

until the central bank game changes, it's all medium to long term buy and hold accumulation style trading for myself. that is, once i get out of these pitiful shorts i've been stuck with for the past 2 months.

[Petsamo]

All overseas markets sold off except Europe. So, this red day for US is not unusual. The gap down will depend on what overseas markets do.

[Al_Dente]

SENOR

Stop is in with profits...not sure what to do overnight. Probably cash 1/2 and let the other 1/2 roll. I am scared of gaps

Its just that if volume would start flowing into DECLINING stocks then we might get a grizzly instead of a little bear cub.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRIN& ... listNum=15
PS: i wussed out early with lunch money and pretty face GLTA

[SB73]

key time. bears really need show strength.

uh oh...bear failure in 3,2,1

[TWT]

KBE: The EWP from the October lows can be counted as completed Triple Zig Zag
The question is if today´s potential Spinning Top has established the top of the wave (Z)

[stucap]

need break the blue line decisively.

here comes the cavalry.....

[johnnywa]

Cobra your wrap us had making new high today which we did today,then your shaded bar had us going done to 1340 before a retest of high and then the 6.5% retracement.Am I reading that right.Just trying to make sure I understand you Martians

[BullBear52x]

message to da bears: there' s always tomorrow

[SB73]

message to da bears: there' s always tomorrow

Nice trades today Senor BB52...

[Cobra]

well, goes exactly as planned.

[THAT GUY]

Cobra, if u have longs, would u keep them overnight that Thursday is the most bullish day of the week ?

Thanks!

[jarbo456]

bots are a little late today, maybe still jet lagged from the daylight savings time change...

anyone want to take the under that we're ending this day in the green?

[BullBear52x]

message to da bears: there' s always tomorrow

Nice trades today Senor BB52...

Thanks, I am done, I thought for sure the change is coming, well, BTFD as usual.


Thanks Cobra and everyone,

TA note: Buy that dip! as far as I can see.

[btran874]

message to da bears: there' s always tomorrow

Man, you've been a bear since December rally? But you know what you're doing so you didn't lose money.

My biggest regret is I bought at 1340.03 but sold the next day for quick profit. I should have hold it until we get all the way to the top. Hell, even when the big correction 6.5% that Cobra sees it won't break 1340.03 and that I am willing to make a bet.

[Buckethead]

Tomorrow may be up significantly. Large POMO. Today digestion of yesty's gains

[SB73]

I am definitely not feeling as bullish as the rest of you for tomorrow. I think that bear may have a decent leg down tomorrow, but that will likely be a buying opportunity.

[Cobra]

here's a normal pattern, not sure if time is enough though.

[Buckethead]

I am definitely not feeling as bullish as the rest of you for tomorrow. I think that bear may have a decent leg down tomorrow, but that will likely be a buying opportunity.

Yesterday was a major accumulation day. 99% of time there is follow-thru in next few days.

[BullBear52x]

message to da bears: there' s always tomorrow

Man, you've been a bear since December rally? But you know what you're doing so you didn't lose money.

My biggest regret is I bought at 1340.03 but sold the next day for quick profit. I should have hold it until we get all the way to the top. Hell, even when the big correction 6.5% that Cobra sees it won't break 1340.03 and that I am willing to make a bet.

yes, if you look back I was more bear then bull since 2007. but hey, to survive this market you got to have to agreed with uncle Ben or you lose.