Cobra's Market View

pidge66 wrote:

AK84 wrote: Depends on a lot of different factors and "feelings" I guess. I normally try not to hold my positions for more than 7-10 days (time decay can kill u ! ) and usually buy at calls/puts at least 2 months out if its a swing position. Day trade is different and I use weeklies sometimes but honestly its very stressful and I have a another job (one that requires me to sit at a desk for 10 hours a day.....i consider that my second job )

I usually ITM options (at least 2-3 strikes below current or entry price) . I start off buy naked calls/puts with protective hedges such as aapl , or stronger stocks that I like (changes EVERYDAY!!) and if i make money and want to hold overnight I either strangle or spread the position to protect profits.

If i had sep puts on any positions I had today I would have gotten v vv pissed with the action of the last 2 days because of the chop and vol! but my positions have respected me ....so far!!

sorry if im not very clear but hope i could help in some way possible!

Thanks AK84. I normally feel "shackled" and frozen given any options hedge, usually I just let it expire worthless. I think options are a lot harder.

What kind of secondary job allows you to trade so much? I'd like to get one!

hah yea i hear u . i have a hard time hedging my options as well . it actually really sucks. so its critical to try and be more right than wrong otherwise ur acct value swings like crazy (and ive learned the hard way many times!) ...but usually i try to make some money on my calls / puts and then turn them into spreads or strangle them depending on my strategy (holding overnight or not ) and then take off the hedge the next day and re-hedge at the end of the day. OR I hedge with stocks I like and are performing well. This could be anything from AAPL to GOOG to whatever. Just depends on the day , how I feel , and most importantly, How well I can read the chart. I am just an amateur and continue to learn everyday from the Master Cobra himself and everyone else here like SOKU, KENA, Cougar, 99er, Uempel, etc etc (cant type all the names lol ) .

KENA does options as well so u shud def get his opinion too ! I like to follow his posts as he does lots of single stock names too !

I work at a private company on the equity research dividend forecasting desk and im not restricted in trading ...although its gotten quite tough to be super active (i follow the board a lot but dont day trade as much anymore). I now try and put on swing trades!

Hope this helps!

EvilTrader wrote:

Cobra wrote:

q2model wrote:

Cobra wrote:

EvilTrader wrote:Im inclined to believe the TOP was already seen for this week.

let's see how market closes today.

Under what condition would you say top is in?

Didn't you see I didn't disagree with EvilTrader? There're always some chances especially if we close Open > Close today, with VIX double reversal bars, with NYMO and T2122 at record high, what else can I expect? I have to say a top of some kind was in or very close.

That´s it.

Also, this rally did reach the 50% retracement line from the recent sell-off.

Yes, I noted this earlier, too. My concern is that 50% is not a "normal" retracement target. Usually one lower or higher (i.e. 61.8%) So, I'm on edge... Although short biased, for sure.

AK84 wrote: ...
Hope this helps!

Thanks!!!

Cobra, what is today open for SPY, because from my platfom it seems way to low, how this occur when the futures were very high at the open.

Thanks

janez wrote:

janez wrote:I shorted heavy mid day. Now wonder whether to cover some or all.

SOHU, ANR, MLM, MCK

didnt get a chance to look at ANR or MLM but MCK looks good to hold overnight and SOHU as well (although sohu broke out of daily downtrend line but with the black bar on daily chart u could be ok ).

Be careful and good luck!

Cobra, Your call this morning and from yesterday close the market looks overbought is spot on, at least at this time of writing. Not getting unnerved with some of the intraday highs would have proved extremely profitable shorting.
I see light volume, and some volatility indexes rising, albeit on low volume - which suggests to me the market is waiting and adjusting.

Assuming one of two outcomes tomorrow: the market closes up (strong), or closes down (weak), what do the patterns say today?
In other words, does today point to either a bear flag or a rising wedge (?) ?
Or, all things being equal, what is most likely to be expressed based solely on todays data, should hypothetically one of the two events occur?

I apologize, if I am not even asking the question correctly. Thanks.

Thanks, AK. I covered ANR, MLM, SOHU. MCK, FLS remaining (really because they are hardly profitable ).
may reshort them. They are all broken hourly.

My longs are mostly red. Cobra said buy dip?

Mongoose wrote:Cobra, Your call this morning and from yesterday close the market looks overbought is spot on, at least at this time of writing. Not getting unnerved with some of the intraday highs would have proved extremely profitable shorting.
I see light volume, and some volatility indexes rising, albeit on low volume - which suggests to me the market is waiting and adjusting.

Assuming one of two outcomes tomorrow: the market closes up (strong), or closes down (weak), what do the patterns say today?
In other words, does today point to either a bear flag or a rising wedge (?) ?
Or, all things being equal, what is most likely to be expressed based solely on todays data, should hypothetically one of the two events occur?

I apologize, if I am not even asking the question correctly. Thanks.

I expect a pullback of some kind. As for Bear Flag or Rising Wedge or more bullish one Double Bottom, we'll have to see how pullback goes. Right now too early to say.

rola wrote:Cobra, what is today open for SPY, because from my platfom it seems way to low, how this occur when the futures were very high at the open.

Thanks

the open price is 122.46 for SPY.

Cobra wrote:

Mongoose wrote:Cobra, Your call this morning and from yesterday close the market looks overbought is spot on, at least at this time of writing. Not getting unnerved with some of the intraday highs would have proved extremely profitable shorting.
I see light volume, and some volatility indexes rising, albeit on low volume - which suggests to me the market is waiting and adjusting.

Assuming one of two outcomes tomorrow: the market closes up (strong), or closes down (weak), what do the patterns say today?
In other words, does today point to either a bear flag or a rising wedge (?) ?
Or, all things being equal, what is most likely to be expressed based solely on todays data, should hypothetically one of the two events occur?

I apologize, if I am not even asking the question correctly. Thanks.

I expect a pullback of some kind. As for Bear Flag or Rising Wedge or more bullish one Double Bottom, we'll have to see how pullback goes. Right now too early to say.

ideas on why the market is putting in such a strong end of day move?

WATCH THE DOLLAR!

jarbo456 wrote:

Cobra wrote:

Mongoose wrote:Cobra, Your call this morning and from yesterday close the market looks overbought is spot on, at least at this time of writing. Not getting unnerved with some of the intraday highs would have proved extremely profitable shorting.
I see light volume, and some volatility indexes rising, albeit on low volume - which suggests to me the market is waiting and adjusting.

Assuming one of two outcomes tomorrow: the market closes up (strong), or closes down (weak), what do the patterns say today?
In other words, does today point to either a bear flag or a rising wedge (?) ?
Or, all things being equal, what is most likely to be expressed based solely on todays data, should hypothetically one of the two events occur?

I apologize, if I am not even asking the question correctly. Thanks.

I expect a pullback of some kind. As for Bear Flag or Rising Wedge or more bullish one Double Bottom, we'll have to see how pullback goes. Right now too early to say.

ideas on why the market is putting in such a strong end of day move?

Because its schizo ...duh !!

Short it all ! Heck, short yourself, short me , short your family, short everything!

AK84 wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:

Cobra wrote:

Mongoose wrote:Cobra, Your call this morning and from yesterday close the market looks overbought is spot on, at least at this time of writing. Not getting unnerved with some of the intraday highs would have proved extremely profitable shorting.
I see light volume, and some volatility indexes rising, albeit on low volume - which suggests to me the market is waiting and adjusting.

Assuming one of two outcomes tomorrow: the market closes up (strong), or closes down (weak), what do the patterns say today?
In other words, does today point to either a bear flag or a rising wedge (?) ?
Or, all things being equal, what is most likely to be expressed based solely on todays data, should hypothetically one of the two events occur?

I apologize, if I am not even asking the question correctly. Thanks.

I expect a pullback of some kind. As for Bear Flag or Rising Wedge or more bullish one Double Bottom, we'll have to see how pullback goes. Right now too early to say.

ideas on why the market is putting in such a strong end of day move?

Because its schizo ...duh !!

Short it all ! Heck, short yourself, short me , short your family, short everything!

...it's like a woman! -_- (sorry for the women on this board...i kid ^^).

i saw a buy signal, so am actually now long SPY, but it's beyond me to understand why...just following what i'm seeing on the short term.

uempel wrote:A last chart, then I'm off. I'll exit at about 1209 or 1210, don't want to be caught in a bear-trap...

SPX1215.png

Well-done sir.

volume surge, so could see a pullback till the close and I think that's almost it for today.

ORCL flirting with close above recent highs again today lol

Thanks all

well, guess that's it for today. I need check to see if indeed NYMO and T2122 had made a record high, still cannot believe that they could go higher tomorrow. that said, as all you know that for the past 2 years, all bulls need are imagination. So nothing bearish is guaranteed. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

Cobra wrote:

pady wrote:Hi Cobra,

Do you update the board when the impulse system gives a signal during the trading day ? How does one get the signal themselves ?

Thanks

gd

I just give day signal which is the day before and yesterday confirmed the entry. You have to decide the exact entry intraday when every time such a signal is given.

I missed this reply yesterday. Thanks.

gd