Cobra's Market View

uempel wrote:

q2model wrote:

Michelle wrote:

uempel wrote:Michelle, I've experimented with A/D and cumulative. The way I tested it it never gave any good signals. I prefer Bullish percentages. I found an A/D chart and put a 55 in. What do you read? I don'' pick up any viable information

NYAD cumulative isn't going to give much info, but interestingly, it has touched, and breached the 50 day for the first time since 09.

Do you mind explaining what weekly cumulative means? Rolling 5 days sum? Thanks a lot.

Go to "chartschool" at stockcharts.com and enter NYAD cumulative. As far as I remember it makes the NYAD easier to read, wipes out nervousness.

Thanks

meet you at TraderVix
drinks on me..

(TVIX appears impervious to the bulls)

at the minimum, going short now creates a great deal of headline risk for your portfolio heading into monday given all the chatter right now and meetings that will take place over the weekend. I didn't like holding short over the weekends in Q3 08, same now.


Also, I wanted to go back to a post by BullTart here on 9/15, keep this potential short term cycle in mind, it may still be the right track:

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/20 ... -312163954

$ selling off a bit. Putting a little wind into equity's sails.

SPX
Update.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/spx_2580.html

Have a nice weekend. Hope it's more exciting than the SPX.

Claire, this is for you: it's a close-up of the 377 chart, and you see that the red MA is flat. SPX's fall from 1370 to 1100 flattened it.

uempel wrote:Claire, this is for you: it's a close-up of the 377 chart, and you see that the red MA is flat. SPX's fall from 1370 to 1100 flattened it.

377CloseUp.png

How do you interpret the flattening ? Choppy ahead of more down soon? or gap up again . this is tough to trade!!!!

spinning top on the vix anyone ?

still hanging in...

uempel --thank you. It's kind of you to take the time to be helpful. I see it now very clearly.

Repositioned 25% of Short.
I want to give some respect to the declining tops line and the resistance at SPY 114 (though that could fall at the close).
Will add more if conditions warrant next week.
Would have done more but didn't get price that compensates me for weekend risk.

$NYADV and $NYDEC are the pure numbers that we love.
$NYAD nets them out.
All reset every morning on open, hence zig zag lines.
Cumulative just eliminates the resetting and provides a smoother line easier to “read” but lags a touch

Anyone shorts over the weekend?

Cobra - Second month on the board and I have to give you credit for the intuitive commentary and chart presentations. As a former CEO of a regional financial services company I have to say that it would have been a true pleasure having a person with your insight as the head of research. I am not surprised that you have posters with incredible acumen and astute market observations. Thank you for the hard work.

AK84 wrote:

uempel wrote:Claire, this is for you: it's a close-up of the 377 chart, and you see that the red MA is flat. SPX's fall from 1370 to 1100 flattened it.

377CloseUp.png

How do you interpret the flattening ? Choppy ahead of more down soon? or gap up again . this is tough to trade!!!!

The flattening of 377 is due to the drop from 1370 to 1100.

I think the safest way to play now is to short the bounces... I was long premarket but I exited fairly early. I was waiting for a more bullish move, at least to 1145. Now I'm all cash. This is a losers game. Can to in both directions. If I had to chose I would short, because sooner or later the market will drop. But it might be another month or two, and I don't want to have trapped positions for a few weeks. Enjoy your weekend, I'm off now...

wayne0708 wrote:Anyone shorts over the weekend?

All cash since 11:00 am-ish....Just threw 100 bucks at a spy short for the weekend to keep it interesting.

sgregs wrote:Cobra - Second month on the board and I have to give you credit for the intuitive commentary and chart presentations. As a former CEO of a regional financial services company I have to say that it would have been a true pleasure having a person with your insight as the head of research. I am not surprised that you have posters with incredible acumen and astute market observations. Thank you for the hard work.

Wow! Cobra, way to go!

I just closed most short positions except TWM.
I really enjoyed a few days in this forum.
Great work, Cobra and other regular contributors.
Wish you all a good weekend!

stockcycle wrote:It's my time to add long @1133. I do'nt mind if I have to hold it over weekend.

If things are looking bad Monday. the Gov will pass their bill. saving ammo.

Meeting all weekend,reversal date 23rd today,new moon top Tuesday....I will short Tuesday if market goes up into the close Tuesday,weekend would be to nerve wracking