10/05/2011 Intraday Watering

[jarbo456]

Hedge your position shorts or longs if you have to have one in time like today. Hope is not a strategy.

For a newb like me, how would you hedge a long TNA position?

sell IWM calls?

or just buy some TNA puts...<shrugs>

depends on how hedged you want to be.

[ddd]

Hedge your position shorts or longs if you have to have one in time like today. Hope is not a strategy.

For a newb like me, how would you hedge a long TNA position?

Now your should be in profit. Use stops.

[Cobra]

Cobra,

In last nights report u said if big up today then tomorrow all will be erased.....still true ? or still up tom ? im thinking more up ....but kinda to put in a bear flag / wedge type pattern

I don't know. I just told you the statistics. The interesting thing I found is: whenever I believed those statistics, they didn't work at all.

[CognitiveDissonance]

Hedge your position shorts or longs if you have to have one in time like today. Hope is not a strategy.

For a newb like me, how would you hedge a long TNA position?

sell IWM calls?

Thanks!

[kaiboliu]

Hedge your position shorts or longs if you have to have one in time like today. Hope is not a strategy.

For a newb like me, how would you hedge a long TNA position?

Now your should be in profit. Use stops.

Stop don't help you with over night GAP

[Al_Dente]

note from my buddy on the GS bond desk:

"The belly of the curve sold off 20 bps…..HUGE move….haven’t seenthat kind of a selloff since 08…..part of this is a glut of new supply coming to the market, but it’s also…..
Risk ON."

think we have another end of day run up...doesn't take much to get people to buy this market.

what is "belly" of yield curve.... is it 10s ... 10 yr maturities?

[stucap]

Seems to be some divergence forming here....RSI trending down, MACD refusing to cross....

But, bulls can still imagine a rally -- all it will take is an algo blast up above the days' high to trigger some covering, no?

[BullBear52x]

Hedge your position shorts or longs if you have to have one in time like today. Hope is not a strategy.

For a newb like me, how would you hedge a long TNA position?

sell IWM calls?

or just buy some TNA puts...<shrugs>

depends on how hedged you want to be.

Buy Bull etfs in the same dollar amount, if thing goes your way per your chart analysis, sell the hedge, if it goes against you let it the whole position run until the hedge max out, sell the hedge position there for profit. it will show as unrealized lost but total cash will be the same.

[Cobra]

I'm not sure if this a 3 push up or simply consolidation before another breakout attempt.

[99er]

RUT
MACD cross.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_7007.html

[BullBear52x]

I don't see bullish signs but a fight for survival here. a break down below 113 will only tell the Bulls is done.

[Unique]

Last 30 mins is what counts...

Suspsense is killing me...Yawn...

[cougar]

RUT
MACD cross.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/rut_7007.html

Very nice, 99er!

[SB73]

Cobra,

The stats are solid. I have ridden this bull train up far enough. Time to get off and start looking for short entry points. This move will be wiped out in the next couple of days, but I am now in the camp of dip buying...just nowhere near these levels. Looking for 1100ish on the SPX in the next 2 days.

[jarbo456]

note from my buddy on the GS bond desk:

"The belly of the curve sold off 20 bps…..HUGE move….haven’t seenthat kind of a selloff since 08…..part of this is a glut of new supply coming to the market, but it’s also…..
Risk ON."

think we have another end of day run up...doesn't take much to get people to buy this market.

what is "belly" of yield curve.... is it 10s ... 10 yr maturities?

Between 5-10 year parts of the curve.

Prior to today, the long end had been rallying a scotch, basically flattening the curve (operation twist) but today the selloff was all across the curve from 2013 on out, but really concentrated in the 5-10 year space. Little bit of a reversal today. All in, the word is that brokerdealers sellingoff balances, and syndicates are selling down right now….long long end didn’t sell off quite as much bc there’s marginally more support and more yield hogs and the short end has been strong since forever I guess……
Just to put this in perspective, usually the curve moves 1-2 bps a day, 3-4 is a BIG move. 20….welll sheeeeeeshh………
Muni curve is really viewed traditionally as lagging treasuries historically, but the last 3 times we’ve had big moves, the muni curve was a “leading” indicator……..
All in all, nothing exciting. Long live munis.

[Mr. BachNut]

Random observation: Since the August low, the risk on bullish pulses have generally run between 4 - 8 days. Doesn't mean it will repeat this time, but looking at trend line resistances, lack of overbought condition and (at the moment) good follow through on yesterday's action, this thing has some room to run. Shouldn't be straight up though.

[uempel]

Today's a waiting game...

[Cobra]

nice, turn out to be another breakout.

[Roadrunner]

ticking, ticking, ... last hour coming.

Lately, it's the last 15 min that counts.

well, maybe the last 30min... big green 5 min candle

[wayne0708]

what is target cobra?