11/03/2011 Intraday Watering

[knock]

ES
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/es_7632.html

Time to Rock n' Roll.

Lovely butterfly!

[Cobra]

too late, my browser crashed. it's volume surge than H1 long.

[tdo722]

think the high is in for the day. chop down to 125.20'ish for the rest of the day.

high is not in yet.

[MrMiyagi]

I'm tempted to say 1300-1320 is in play.

[xfradnex]

jef full recovered from 20% dip today and trading stops. could be exhaustion spike now.

now broke lower support from yesterday.

[tdo722]

okay now the high is in.

[pady]

I was going to ask about exhaustion. Last hour bar didnt look like that. I feel 1263-65 will be 61.8 retrace. Hoping there. Else I throw in the towel. And wait for next year.

[Dow Trader]

jarbo456,
I trade EURO since year 2000 and it is now in trading range which means try to play the level and area, for example 142.50 is strong resistance, why ? because it was last rate hike level and they now cut which means it is a sell area, If they cut again ( the first hike was 140.60 ) then a new range will be 128.00 to 140.00 area.
if you want to trade it based on contracts, then as long as it is below 142.50 then target is 129.00 and so on, EUR now not good with traditional TA in my view or at least this is what I found.
for now, I mean today, it is in wait and see, chek the chart

[Me XMan]

Shorted SPY 126.10...Greece situation is fluid...

[uempel]

Update:

[waverider]

I'm tempted to say 1300-1320 is in play.

Do you have any evidence? European equities outperformed credit today, suggestive of hedging. This is overbought imo.

[MrMiyagi]

Got a few shorts here (despite my 1300 prediction) and hiding under the covers rest of the day.

Actually... I have to get some housework done, catch up later.

[99er]

So honey...what's for lunch?
SPX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx_3218.html

Pernod?

[MrMiyagi]

I'm tempted to say 1300-1320 is in play.

Do you have any evidence? European equities outperformed credit today, suggestive of hedging. This is overbought imo.

Just going on momentum, sentiment and late entries here, nothing chartwise.

[jarbo456]

jarbo456,
I trade EURO since year 2000 and it is now in trading range which means try to play the level and area, for example 142.50 is strong resistance, why ? because it was last rate hike level and they now cut which means it is a sell area, If they cut again ( the first hike was 140.60 ) then a new range will be 128.00 to 140.00 area.
if you want to trade it based on contracts, then as long as it is below 142.50 then target is 129.00 and so on, EUR now not good with traditional TA in my view or at least this is what I found.
for now, I mean today, it is in wait and see, chek the chart

haha. agreed. i worked for a very large fund currency trading, mainly spot, since 2003. definitely have a lot more to learn trading in general, but i'm becoming more and more disillusioned by the clarity in the FX market. had though it was impervious to large mechanisms pushing and pulling at it due to its size. but it's obvious, especially over the past few years, that the market is as susceptible to head fakes and stretches/pulls as the US equity markets. i started trading equities because of the increasing market participation by central banks in the FX market - especially opaque actions which, 10 years ago, would not have nearly taken place as often as it does now.

i'm realizing more and more that the bond market is the only semi-clean signal generating market at this point.

long term, any EUR/USD under 1.40 is still bear positive.

[StrikePrice]

@StrikePrice -

Could this be an impulse up ??? Could 1292-1215 have been an ABC ? Curious...

Well sure, I still see is as a Diagonal which could come in both an A wave and a wave 1 as a leading diagonal. So even if this is a start of another Impulse we'll have a Wave 2 and that would be confirmed by not falling lower than 1215.42.

Now could it also be an Ending Diagonal going for a higher high above 1292.66? Possible because it held my Diagonal 2-4 trend line. So maybe it was a Zig-Zag Wave 4 and now we're in Wave 5. You could easily run that as your count and if it doesn't make a higher high call it a wave 5 failure.

So we have easily 3 possible counts we need to keep in our heads. I guess that's why most hate Elliott Wave. And why i must combine it with a mechanical buy/sell signal using other indicators. (which i ignored on my earlier short, trying to jump the signal, anticipation can be great or can really burn you)

Times like now can be really confusing for EW vs. the way things looked on last Friday.

btw...your work is great Pady, good calls all around.

[tdo722]

who is shorting with me, raise your hand? I short at 126.04. Looking for at least $1000 profit on 1500 shares of spy.

[Al_Dente]

Update
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =247748592

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlRF43-x ... re=related

[fehro]

would make a nice down channel, if we turn down here...

[uempel]

Update: