Cobra's Market View

people or machines buying the intraday breakout to a new high in appl.

Good luck SNAKES!
I'll be taking the weekend off, away from my desk!

backtest?.. then down to neckline... to make the "head" more symmetrical?

Why am I short here?!

jarbo456 wrote:people or machines buying the intraday breakout to a new high in appl.

I don't have any experience with that but I think the $100 a month version of this HFT program might show it clearly.

I do know that at times, they have bought just 7 stocks in the Dow 30 and moved the mkt 200 points in minutes. With a 90% correlation now, you can own a company that is doing great and a 20% drop in a month slaughters you too despite your knowing how solid the firm is.

On Oct 27th, we had some pretty bullish action in the markets, all bulls, exhaustion buying. The following day Trannies and Small Caps were so close to making a new high, but failed. Today we have a similar situation. Trannies (DJT) was one point or so away from making a new high, couldn't do it. Back on Oct 28th, Russell was within 2 points of making a new high, but couldn't. Just pointing out similarities...

jarbo456 wrote:bears are in trouble. need to close the day under 1319....that's SPX 1319.

In cash right now, but what do you see magical about that number in particular?

wow bears may have some hair on there ass

Could anyone tell me why when European stocks is trending down, the US stocks pared the losses today?

Olli Rehn's talk is given in European trading hours, right? Why EU markets didn't pick this good news and sour up back then?

Does "every dip was bought in US market" really mean a much higher target of SPY ahead? What is the target in "dip buyers'" minds? A 1500 or 1600 in the first half?

I am confused by the optimistism, or more precisely, the insanity on the street.

Could some bull give me some fresh-up and I am very much appreciate for your enlightening views.

Thanks!

SB73 wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:bears are in trouble. need to close the day under 1319....that's SPX 1319.

In cash right now, but what do you see magical about that number in particular?

to be honest, not much...just that if it can close below it, the bears may be able to close the daily SPX candle under the trend line.

my next post is what i see on SPY...not great for bears.

SPY daily and hourly show you where the bears need to break to have a chance.

could be a H&S top...but whatever it is, doesn't matter unless the bears can break below the initial neckline, trendline, and ultimately what i see as the 23% fib retrace from the 12/20 low (NOT the 12/19 low).

Cobra..Thanks for the week..Everyone have a great weekend.

TraderGirl wrote:I'm with Cobra and TWT, we could be in "B" wave up, next comes, "C" wave down. If you look at the "A" wave we had, that is 148 Dow points, so if c = a, then that could take us down to 12552...????

I think the Dow is headed to test last year's highs and then it all turns.

is it just me? the market went up big right after close? what the hack?

It looks like that metals are running on steroids, together with market. Greece is back to the table,cornered again, very close to the making deal.
Everyone have a great weekend.
Metals:

soku wrote:is it just me? the market went up big right after close? what the hack?

saw a spike in /ES up to 1317.25
spike in SPY to 132.14

Thanks Cobra and everyone, have a good weekend.

dcurban1 wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:I'm with Cobra and TWT, we could be in "B" wave up, next comes, "C" wave down. If you look at the "A" wave we had, that is 148 Dow points, so if c = a, then that could take us down to 12552...????

I think the Dow is headed to test last year's highs and then it all turns.

I agree that we are headed probably beyond last years highs on the Dow, but I think we get a pull back here in a 4 wave, then up in a 5 wave into March 13-16, then we have a big pull back from there..... IMHO

pidge66 wrote:

spy.GIF

Why am I short here?!

There is no reason why anyone should be net short here. I closed out positions, but probably should have had some long exposure going into next week. I can't see why we don't test 1340-1350 next week (barring any calamity over the weekend). Everything is pointing higher and I would not think otherwise.

Huge gap up on Monday.