The Intraday US Stock Market Discussion Board
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RedKite wrote:Yes indeed. You could say last Friday was final bottom, the problem is that June 24 was a capitulation day, and last Friday wasn't. Usually the bottom is a capitulation day, though I have to say I don't have the rigorous stats for that assertion. I'm measuring capitulation using NYUD:NYUPV.chickencoop wrote:June 24th was a new low but it bottomed on that day?RedKite wrote:Thanks. My misunderstanding.
On a different subject, whether we go up or down. On Friday NYA50R had a new low in this recent distribution phase. I can't find an example where it had a new low after the final bottom. In other words it's saying the final bottom of this phase is still ahead of us, not behind us.
I too thought Friday was the final bottom until I saw the European volatility measures today, VDAX and VSTOXX, then I went back and looked at NYA50R on Friday, and the lack of capitulation, and now I'm very suspicious of this current recovery. I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.
I take your point though.
if we fall through the gap and head lower.. think there will be even a sharper down move.. we've bounced weakly off this support 3 times in the last 4-5 days.. every time you jump up and down on the floor the weaker it gets.. until it falls to the next floorrhight wrote:Uh-oh, if we fall thru the gap i'm gonna crap
Kabbalistic tree of life versus Lord of Destruction - I sure like your abbreviationsDaniel-David wrote:Crude oil pushes at hod as Dow goes negative to fresh LOD.
lilitulip: SPX:VIX is not one that's easy to quantify, so I don't try too hard with it. Some periods it bottoms very low, like below 50, other periods it bottoms high, most recently a bit below 80, usually. I looked at percentage difference a while ago and didn't come to a conclusion. So I use it as a secondary indicator, not primary. Another one in a similar vein is the RS of BPINDV, which should go down to at least 45 (with smoothing) for a bottom, and hasn't. Can't base trades on these, they're just supporting indicators.lilitulip wrote:Hi RedKite,
Appreciate your input. I also check SPX:VIX, but since SPX has been moving higher, should the value need to use a relative method compare to previous, instead of a fix number, I don't know whether use percentage difference is better? what do you think? thanks
RedKite wrote:chickencoop wrote:RedKite wrote: I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.
I like your imaginative interpretations of these abbreviations.uempel wrote:Kabbalistic tree of life versus Lord of Destruction - I sure like your abbreviationsDaniel-David wrote:Crude oil pushes at hod as Dow goes negative to fresh LOD.
Sorry, I'm just bored, trying to confuse everybody. I'm waiting for some kind of strong move at SPX 1637 and so far nothing is happening...Daniel-David wrote:I like your imaginative interpretations of these abbreviations.uempel wrote:Kabbalistic tree of life versus Lord of Destruction - I sure like your abbreviationsDaniel-David wrote:Crude oil pushes at hod as Dow goes negative to fresh LOD.
I thought them fairly standard...