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IWM mid to long term setup, if bulls manage to move histogram to positive, my sell the rip will be voided. right now is right at the border line. bears either do it now or without me
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Can you please educate and provide your view on Bitcoin? that bug jumped $ 250 to $ 900 in 10 day!!!!!!
Thank you
Google Tulip Mania
This is a fantasm me think. Bernanke says it is ok, Richard Branson tells Virgin Galactic has accepted a bitcoin payment.
Bitcoins from 12 USD in 2012 to 700 today. This kind of speculation is a sign that there is too much money in the system...
My opinion is that it will be shown in books history as the tulip speculation is today to explain global financial delirium....
Last edited by champix on Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Here is the update I sent out on Sunday night....followed pretty well...was expecting a pullback of some kind today...but may come later...?? Told subscribers we may see the biggest down day on Weds...
Developed equity markets are closer to the sources of equity optimism – the favourable
combination of DM growth and accommodative policy – but they are also the markets that
have benefited most so far in 2013. After a year of outsized market performance, dictated in
large part by expanding multiples and a compression of risk premia, our expectations
globally this coming year are for more moderate returns amid low volatility, and for a tilt
toward earnings growth as the primary driver in the US and Europe, with robust dividend
yields and some consolidation in multiples.
Expectations for US returns are modest, with an end-2014 target of 1900 for the S&P 500,
for a price return of about 6% from current levels and a total return of slightly more than
8%, amid still-low realised and implied volatility. The US multiple, which expanded in 2013
to 15.5, is expected to compress a touch to just over 15, with earnings growth and dividend
yield responsible for the expected upside. Expectations are more robust in Europe, with
volatilities similarly moderate: our 2014 Stoxx600 target of 360 is almost 11% from current
levels, as a pick-up in earnings growth more than offsets some multiple compression. In
Japan, expectations are higher still, although volatilities are more elevated as well, with an
end-2014 Topix price target of 1800, up more than 17% from current levels. Japan returns
are driven by significant earnings growth and some ongoing multiple expansion, with
Japanese markets still well behind the recovery seen in other DMs relative to pre-crisis
levels.
Expectations in Asia ex-Japan are for about 8% returns, but that is back-end-loaded,
with Asian EM markets facing some pressure during the first half of the year.
The clearest expressions of this DM-domestic-demand-driven market view have already
been generously priced in most places, with US and European indices making new highs,
and leadership in 2013 concentrated in domestic cyclicals, although these trends may well
extend. Our forecasts call for an acceleration in the US to be focused on a pick-up in
investment spending, which is less aggressively priced at the sector level (Industrials and
Technology), and may have implications more globally (export-heavy Korea, Taiwan and
Germany are first among equals here).
While the EM economic outlook is less favourable than the DM outlook in terms of the
growth/policy balance, coming after a year of significant underperformance, our EM equity
outlook is a bit more upbeat. Stability in China and reform optimism there, DM support for
external EM sectors, and perhaps a boost to EM external sectors from currency weakness
(relative to the USD), add up to a more sanguine view of EM equities relative to most of
last year and relative to other EM assets for the coming year.
We would emphasise that any optimism here ought to be focused on capturing exposure
to DM economics, focused on risk premia that have built up over the last few years of
underperformance, while avoiding some of the EM markets with moderate global exposure
and deeper structural issues at home. So EM differentiation remains a key theme. It is also
worth noting that, given the robust commodity supply outlook, lack of China growth
acceleration and resulting downside commodity price risks, despite a bit more EM
optimism, commodity-linked sectors (Materials and Energy) and commodity-heavy markets
(Russia, South Africa, and Brazil) may be less likely to benefit, given our core set of views.
Along with the expected growth acceleration, we also envisage periods of rate worries that
may halt equity markets, even if only temporarily. Building composite trades that manage
that specific risk via other assets that may be affected by a US rates sell-off – and that
benefit less from the underlying US growth driver – may help in holding core long equity
positions during bouts of rate turmoil.
This is possibly why bitcoin pulled back, but doesn't seem like it would be done yet...
This could be a,b 5 waves for c, or ab could instead be 1, 2, 5 waves up for 3... so perhaps it is a wave 3 or c....usually at least another attempt at a high...
But it definitely could be a bubble machine...going to pop at some point...POP!!