03/19/2014 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Schaeffer’s data re: the Dr. Copper crash
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/why-d ... ol/id=7936

But it's not just the Chinese slowdown that has caused the plunge in the price of copper - Chinese businesses have been using the commodity as collateral for their loans.
So with the first ever bond default in China, commodity investors are worried there may be a glut of the metal coming on to the market.
Exactly how much copper is being held for collateral is uncertain.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26583535

TOTALLY OFF TOPIC [save for later]
Apple Designer Jonathan Ive gives a rare, remarkable interview
[just scroll down, u don’t have to sign in]
http://time.com/jonathan-ive-apple-interview/

[Al_Dente]

Schaeffer’s data re: the Dr. Copper crash
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/why-d ... ol/id=7936

Good read Al, it was annexed to Todd Salmone's Monday Morning Outlook last weekend.
Funny how we often don't check the validity of some old adages and accept them as facts. But one saying is always valid, always: The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent (usually attributed to J.M.Keynes).

the Dr. has been in trouble for years
but u already knew that
this is daily, 6 years

[gappy]

Schaeffer’s data re: the Dr. Copper crash
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/why-d ... ol/id=7936

But it's not just the Chinese slowdown that has caused the plunge in the price of copper - Chinese businesses have been using the commodity as collateral for their loans.

So with the first ever bond default in China, commodity investors are worried there may be a glut of the metal coming on to the market.

Exactly how much copper is being held for collateral is uncertain.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26583535

Capture.PNG

[Al_Dente]

Follow up on that Yuan thing I posted last night in the subscribers area:
From Business Insider this moning:
“Yuan nears the danger zone. The Chinese yuan fell to 6.1991 against the U.S. dollar in offshore trading on Wednesday, coming close to the 6.20 ‘danger zone’ flagged by Morgan Stanley analysts as a level that could trigger a more rapid depreciation. The move follows the worst two-day loss for the yuan (on Monday and Tuesday) since December 2008, which comes in the wake of the People's Bank of China's weekend announcement that it would widen the daily trading band in which the yuan is allowed to fluctuate in onshore markets.”

[DumbMoney]

Gold short positions need to cover or not?

This am's Hightower fwiw.

Capture.PNG

Will it sync down to the Yen again?

yen.PNG

au.PNG

Profit is a little narrow, as it has been going.

Capture.PNG

glty

Thanks for your analysis,Mr Gappy.

[gappy]

Gold short positions need to cover or not?

This am's Hightower fwiw.

Capture.PNG

Will it sync down to the Yen again?

yen.PNG

au.PNG

Profit is a little narrow, as it has been going.

Capture.PNG

glty

Thanks for your analysis,Mr Gappy.

De nada senor, thanks for your xlent chart annotations.

[Mr. BachNut]

Check your SKEW
In two days SKEW has gone bonkers
Bachnut posted re SKEW a coupla days ago when it was half bonkers, now it’s full-on bonkers

319skew_png.png

Saw that. Flaky. Could be some aberration mucking up the calculations or it could be significant.
It doesn't exactly give me a warm and fuzzy everything is normal market is stable sort of feeling.
I'll look to the Friday close and next weeks levels post opex for maybe more sensible readings.

[flrtrader]

Top Near?

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/20 ... uy-stocks/

[Mr. BachNut]

Message to those who have a broker with access to Eurex:

DAX volatility was great today: DAX moved in-between 9326 and 9223 - that's a range of more than one (for those who only speak Spanish - uno ) percent.

The same intraday action by SPX would be a range of approx 1855 to 1873.

Last but not least: DAX has many idiosyncrasies. One of them is the 100 point range. Corrections tend to be 100, 200 or 300 points. Bigger corrections go for 400, 500, 800, 900 and so forth. These figures are not set in stone - but DAX traders seem to prefer these round numbers. Today's range was quite exemplary.

Seemed like a narrow range day with a slightly higher high and much higher low. Bull flag?

[Al_Dente]

FURTHER
We all know Emerging and China have been struggling for a while. We all know the issues: hard/soft landing, weak banks, debt default, domino effect, etc.
This chart shows that the big problem might be more currency related.
The world (Emerging) is trying to hang in there, but the Emerging Market Currency ETF (CEW, the gold-line ) looks like toast to me…
I know I know it’s all interrelated, equites banks bonds currencies… BUT STILL… this jumps out at me…
This is WEEKLY, the long view, on simple overlay.
[Alternative interpretations welcomed]

[fehro]

Schaeffer’s data re: the Dr. Copper crash
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/why-d ... ol/id=7936

But it's not just the Chinese slowdown that has caused the plunge in the price of copper - Chinese businesses have been using the commodity as collateral for their loans.

So with the first ever bond default in China, commodity investors are worried there may be a glut of the metal coming on to the market.

Exactly how much copper is being held for collateral is uncertain.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26583535

The attachment Capture.PNG is no longer available

$SSEC weekly... with SPX behind it.

[Al_Dente]

Check your SKEW
In two days SKEW has gone bonkers
Bachnut posted re SKEW a coupla days ago when it was half bonkers, now it’s full-on bonkers

Saw that. Flaky. Could be some aberration mucking up the calculations or it could be significant.
It doesn't exactly give me a warm and fuzzy everything is normal market is stable sort of feeling.
I'll look to the Friday close and next weeks levels post opex for maybe more sensible readings.

hi boss
SKEW is on a sell-spy signal on my watch
but it’s too flaky for a real actionable signal….. so I have to wait for price and volume to tell me more…

[Al_Dente]

$SSEC weekly... with SPX behind it.

thx boss
yeowch
usually I have to temper that view with a hong kong overlay $HSI hang seng
otherwise I would vom

[fehro]

$SSEC weekly... with SPX behind it.

thx boss
yeowch
usually I have to temper that view with a hong kong overlay $HSI hang seng
otherwise I would vom

Better?

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. will any of the trends get tagged at the FOMC release in 1m.

[Cobra]

technically a breakout is more likely because the day high has been tested many times. show is about to begin.

[fehro]

VIX started early... VIX 15m

[Cobra]

first 2 responses usually fake.

[fehro]

SPX 5m

[Cobra]

no roller coaster show so far, the reaction is one sided.