03/24/2014 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

How I use the “block feature” on this board:
>User Control Panel (at the top left of this page)
>Friends & Foes
>Manage Foes
>Type in any name in the “Add New Foes” box
>Submit
>Confirm YES submit

Thanks Al, I've been trying to figure out how to get rid of you
Now, back to bidness

once you put someone on Foes list it will automatically send a nasty PM to that person it should

[L_T]

40 years of SPX (purple), gold (shaded gold), long bonds (black), and the U.S. dollar (dashed green),
with a 30 year trend channel (grey lines), drawn on the long bonds $USB.

Conclusion: Just be long the $SPX forever?

[L_T]

Intraday Bullish Percentages look really bad Weaker than I expected. BPFINA (not shown here) is flat.

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... ,$BPINDU|B

A / D bearish especially NASDAQ.

[TraderGirl]

There is an intraday turn off the "T" around 11am PST/2pm EST...I am assuming this will be a low....we'll see...

that does not mean "the" low...just possible intraday turn...

[Al_Dente]

40 years of SPX (purple), gold (shaded gold), long bonds (black), and the U.S. dollar (dashed green),
with a 30 year trend channel (grey lines), drawn on the long bonds $USB.

Conclusion: Just be long the $SPX forever?

Hi LT I think u mentioned this last week [?]

LONG TERM VIX non-confirmation
Nothing new here; we’ve talked about this for months.
But the bottom panel, inverted VIX with an arbitrary 12/55 ma on it, shows a nacent bear cross [edit: that's a bear-SPY cross], long term
This can be cured by SPY moving up to new highs, and VIX moving down to new complacency levels.
The comparisons to the 2007 VIX have been noted and shown before. In 2007 the VIX divergence persisted for many months before SPY got into real trouble.
THIS IS WEEKLY, long term.

[Al_Dente]

...Now, back to bidness

[Al_Dente]

once you put someone on Foes list it will automatically send a nasty PM to that person it should

u sure about that boss ?

[Al_Dente]

WOW
For those of you keeping score in the subscription area:
Cobra over the weekend mentioned something something bla bla, can’t post it here but a number was $184.41 AND TODAY’S LOW WAS $184.62
WOW once again The Snake = awesome

[TraderGirl]

There is an intraday turn off the "T" around 11am PST/2pm EST...I am assuming this will be a low....we'll see...

that does not mean "the" low...just possible intraday turn...

Ok, well maybe it's a high...

[ALdaytrade]

There is an intraday turn off the "T" around 11am PST/2pm EST...I am assuming this will be a low....we'll see...

that does not mean "the" low...just possible intraday turn...

Ok, well maybe it's a high...

Up to around, 1857.50ish?

[TraderGirl]

There is an intraday turn off the "T" around 11am PST/2pm EST...I am assuming this will be a low....we'll see...

that does not mean "the" low...just possible intraday turn...

Ok, well maybe it's a high...

Up to around, 1857.50ish?

It's on the hourly chart so could have seen the high already...or one small leg up?? maybe 185.3 to 185.4??

[Nrsimha]

Janet Yellen = EPIC FAIL.


(Not her looks or age or gender or race or .... [NOT THAT AGAIN!! ])
The fact that SHE WANT TO RAISE INTEREST RATES "SOONER THAN EXPECTED".
That is what the guys at Blackrock and the other big playas are reading from last weeks
statements. And that is what you should be bracing for.

She is truly a moron.

Funny all the people whining about Fed's easy money are now screaming EPIC FAIL that the policy they hated and whined about for five years is coming to an end— but that's idiots for you.

Here's a tip: If your bio has the words "freedom" or "gold" in it, you've been dead wrong about this economy for five years. Deal with it.

And Yellen's a moron?

The woman's a professor at Harvard,a Fed reserve board member starting in the 70s, teaching Macro econ at Haas, served on POTUS econ board of advisors, re appointed to Fed board in '90s, taught London School of Econ, fellow at Yale assoc, Vice-chair Fed reserve board, and Chair of the Fed— probably the most powerful woman on planet earth.

That's her resume, now you post yours— If you've got the sack.

If not, I'll assume in your third grade moron language: Nrsimha=EPIC FAIL

I spent days away from this board after the Yellen nonsense last time, I come back and here's the idiot brigade blaming the government for their problems— again.

No personal attacks? All this guy is is personal attacks. Shut up, you're making my ears bleed.

Political should be banned from this board.
everyone knows politician lies and worst yet those who support them and defense these liars.

Looks like I hit a nerve.

[rhight]

This is an update to the 60min T&P chart, if the low is in at 1849. If price extends in time and price beyond the blue box (down), then that could portend a change in the daily trend. Admittedly the sample size is not large, with a recency bias. That said, price turned at the average in the prior blue box, but at the -1 std dev in the current box, indicating a weakening of the trend. A positive price reversal on the 60min RSI calculates to 1883=(1884.0 + (1849.7 - 1850.4)), and if price stops short of that with the next up swing (assumed), that would be another indication of a change in daily trend is at hand.

[Vaamsy]

Is that a cup and handle on the AAPL 5min?

[MrMiyagi]

qqq

qqq2

spy

[Denali92]

Not a full set of observations – those will be posted tomorrow.

Now that we have Friday confirmed as the post FOMC / Opex top that I was looking for, what is next? We have corrected 34pts which is right in the middle of the expected range for minor tops

Per my previous posts, MAJOR TOPS during March opex and post March FOMC are rare – really just the March 2000 Friday post FOMC top, but we do have last September as a reminder of the power of post FOMC / Opex tops, so the jury is out on how far and how long we can decline.

For now, we need to let this play out for at least another day (all of the fall corrections except for the post October opex / post employment turn) lasted at least 3 days…. with Wednesday being the preferred day for them to end.

I will leave it to the experts to predict the price levels for the next turn. For now, I just can say that the minimum time period for this correction to end is Tuesday with Wednesday more likely. That is the minimum based on how we have traded previously…. as for potentially longer corrections, I will look briefly at the history of early Aprils and April employment in the comments I post tomorrow early.

We did get an hourly buy signal at 12:30pm. Since 2009, there have been 12 previous Monday post opex buys signals (covering 9 post opex downtrades):

4 Monday post opex lows (1 just a 2 day pre FOMC bounce),
3 Tuesday bottoms and
2 Wed after Bottom:
-2 signals on a Monday for the May 2011 bottom
-1 signal on the Monday for Aug 2013 bottom – MID and RUT bottomed on the Monday
1 Post Thanksgiving bottom in Nov 2011

There were only 2 losers from these 12 buy signals, as there was almost always a bounce…. it was just rarely the low when the opex week high was LATE in the week like last week.

Markets are definitely getting more interesting!

-D

[Al_Dente]

The fact that SPY tested that last low on LOWER volume is important for the bullish case
(shows that selling is drying up a bit compared to the last time spy hit that mark),
BUT THE DAY IS NOT OVER YET, so it’s not a fact yet………

[ALdaytrade]

There is an intraday turn off the "T" around 11am PST/2pm EST...I am assuming this will be a low....we'll see...

that does not mean "the" low...just possible intraday turn...

Ok, well maybe it's a high...

Up to around, 1857.50ish?

It's on the hourly chart so could have seen the high already...or one small leg up?? maybe 185.3 to 185.4??

Thank you for this turn time, Trader Girl! One more time for later today? Or maybe we are headed toward 1840?

[Denali92]

GREAT CALL on the bounce area! It was looking grim for a while, but your grids were spot on.

Nice cal!

-D

Update: that lower grid line at approx 1850 should provide a bounce

SPX2.png

[Me XMan]

Anyone seeing SPX 1900 next month?