08/01/2014 Live Update

[Mr. BachNut]

The Big Dow Megaphone still lives.

I thought this thing was done, but after a token close a smidge above the upper bound in June,
July closed back in the megaphone having pinocchio'd the excess.

The ascending wedge has support for August around 16,650. Ruh Ro.
It is all quite pinchy now with conflict between resistance and support.

[Cobra]

members only update at 11:30 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

They forgot coffee!!!

OT
SPX short-term participation, top panel, pink
Yesterday just 19% of SPX stocks were above their 20ma
This is where it bottomed in April, but it can always go lower (like down to 12% last sept; not on this chart)

[Cobra]

another 100% mm target. not sure.

[Mr. BachNut]

returns for the month of july

july returns_png.png

They forgot coffee!!!

I have been drinking a lot of coffee.

It may just be testing the April May highs before failing.
COT has speculators quite long and commercials quite short.

However, if those highs get broken, prior coffee bulls ('77, '85, '94, '97, '11) have gone to $2.50 - $3.00.
If the ETF tracks well, dreams of JO 48-58 would not be absurd.
NOT A PREDICTION but possibly a nice dream.

[gappy]

Daily.

Capture.PNG

[fehro]

XLF weeklies.. feeling the summer heat..

[MrMiyagi]

Bottom must be here because I just bought a couple of SSO puts

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

Greedy yield over-reaches? What!

[Al_Dente]

CREEPING INTERNALS:
Declining volume just crept up to 2.5x advancing volume
Declining issues = 2.5x advancing issues

Oh dear !

[gappy]

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

target met. vol surge, may see rebound here firs but this bear may still have legs.

[MrMiyagi]

TICK was as low as -1400

I think old lady Janet is getting a beating..

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:10 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

Bottom must be here because I just bought a couple of SSO puts

"should" bounce here... but the market never does as it should.. "thin zone" -1925-1900 .. so not so sure.. a quick hit to 1900??

[flumanchu]

The true test will come on Monday, when the margin calls hit.
That's why you never see more than 2 days down at a time.
The decision for bull / bear will be made on that third day, and typically the market has been supported to prevent a cascade / panic.
If there's not support on Monday, then the Fed is ready for the correction - lookout!

[Mr. BachNut]

NYMO hitting my extreme oversold level intra-day.
A low of some sort should be close in time (now to early next week) at least for a bounce.
A low is probably getting close in price too but maybe not as crashy waterfalls can keep going.

Questions:

What is the margin clerk up to?
Do traders want to hold their shorts over the weekend?

[L_T]

I have been drinking a lot of coffee.

It may just be testing the April May highs before failing.
COT has speculators quite long and commercials quite short.

However, if those highs get broken, prior coffee bulls ('77, '85, '94, '97, '11) have gone to $2.50 - $3.00.
If the ETF tracks well, dreams of JO 48-58 would not be absurd.
NOT A PREDICTION but possibly a nice dream.

You sometimes allude to trading other markets, maybe you could show us some charts?

[L_T]

TICK was as low as -1400

I think old lady Janet is getting a beating..

Actually I thought she was short social media and biotech stocks?!

[tomsky]

Dow has so far tested the overnight low and was rejected but have to see reversal pattern to reload longs (a higher low on 5m).