12/15/2014 Live Update

[Out of Bounds]

Well, I'm back for a second.

Just got off the phone with my broker and his people are saying to exercise some caution. I am now in 100% cash across the board - even long term accounts and tax qualified accounts. Their feeling is that the oil situation is creating a a scenario where it is difficult to predict the future and that they think the possible risks are higher than the implicit benefits of cheaper oil. Basically, the economy is so tied to oil profits, that no one can really gauge how much the economy might get hurt.

They are not encouraging clients to sell all stocks but rather to thin out holdings which may be overextended and shift to defensive areas. The decision to go all cash was mine.

[Cobra]

fulfill 100% mm could mean another leg down. may see rebound here first though.

[jway888]

Well, I'm back for a second.

Just got off the phone with my broker and his people are saying to exercise some caution. I am now in 100% cash across the board - even long term accounts and tax qualified accounts. Their feeling is that the oil situation is creating a a scenario where it is difficult to predict the future and that they think the possible risks are higher than the implicit benefits of cheaper oil. Basically, the economy is so tied to oil profits, that no one can really gauge how much the economy might get hurt.

They are not encouraging clients to sell all stocks but rather to thin out holdings which may be overextended and shift to defensive areas. The decision to go all cash was mine.

sounds like even the brokers gang are reading zerohedge now finally

[Mr. BachNut]

Initial targets reached. Gap closed and 50 day MA busted and prior big uptrend revisited.
NYMO has solidly entered the turn zone but still a ways to go to get to the oversold zone.
Can keep going or turn up any day.

I can't find much context for natural support if price keeps dropping until a fair ways lower.
I noticed there is a small gap open at 1965.27.
Then comes the 200 day MA at 1946.92 and my lower Keltner at 1929.64.
I have marked with red circles. They are, as usual, possibilities not predictions.

It is hard for me to imagine things dropping that far, but that is not my job.
I am keeping an open mind to both directions.

[fehro]

XLF under some heat..

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

[daytradingES]

[Cobra]

mini rebound target. exceeds it then bulls have hope.

[Mr. BachNut]

One more piece of possible context.
100 day MA is 1987.95

We are about there now.
This could also be a good place for bulls to make a stand... or not.

[ballatines]

0.382 feb retrace hit vs Ruble at day low ...

[DellGriffith]

re: tiny text....

You can just copy it with ctrl-c and paste it into notepad, wordpad, or even the quick reply box. it shows up as normal size when you do so.

[tsf]

Congratulations, daytradingES.
Looks like your excellent record of calling corrections is intact.

[fehro]

SPX possible minor rinvs H&S.. but VIX still very whippy

[Cobra]

this rebound has legs.

[K447]

re: tiny text....

You can just copy it with ctrl-c and paste it into notepad, wordpad, or even the quick reply box. it shows up as normal size when you do so.

Of course, there are lots of ways to actually make the tiny text more readable. All of them require multiple steps, takes more time for the reader.

Why make any part of a posting hard to read in the first place? What is the point?

[BullBear52x]

Captain obvious is sitting at 50 DMA.

or find excuse to sell per schedule.

[DellGriffith]

Well, I'm back for a second.

Just got off the phone with my broker and his people are saying to exercise some caution. I am now in 100% cash across the board - even long term accounts and tax qualified accounts. Their feeling is that the oil situation is creating a a scenario where it is difficult to predict the future and that they think the possible risks are higher than the implicit benefits of cheaper oil. Basically, the economy is so tied to oil profits, that no one can really gauge how much the economy might get hurt.

They are not encouraging clients to sell all stocks but rather to thin out holdings which may be overextended and shift to defensive areas. The decision to go all cash was mine.

I remember trading back in the 1990s. I would watch the oil sector a lot then. Every day, there were news reports of refineries getting shut down for mechanical or technical problems, reports of pipeline crises, tanker issues, fear that OPEC cutting production would cause a panic, and a lot more that I have long forgotten. All of the news was geared to make you think prices would rise and an oil crisis was imminent ---- yet the oil price simply went straight down in the 1990s and we had an oil glut and a booming economy.

What I'm saying is, be very careful who you LISTEN to. In fact, my experience with news in the oil sector in the 1990s convinced me to stick with technicals. I pretty much ignore news in my investing at this point.

[BullBear52x]

re: tiny text....

You can just copy it with ctrl-c and paste it into notepad, wordpad, or even the quick reply box. it shows up as normal size when you do so.

Of course, there are lots of ways to actually make the tiny text more readable. All of them require multiple steps, takes more time for the reader.

Why make any part of a posting hard to read in the first place? What is the point?

If it really bother you just ignore her. life is too short to frustrate over little thing like that. really, you probable won't miss any thing unless you follow entry and exit. let people enjoy their world the way they see fit.

It bothers me sometime, but I can pick and choose what I want to read. I skip her message many times and read hers many times just........

[Out of Bounds]

Well, I'm back for a second.

Just got off the phone with my broker and his people are saying to exercise some caution. I am now in 100% cash across the board - even long term accounts and tax qualified accounts. Their feeling is that the oil situation is creating a a scenario where it is difficult to predict the future and that they think the possible risks are higher than the implicit benefits of cheaper oil. Basically, the economy is so tied to oil profits, that no one can really gauge how much the economy might get hurt.

They are not encouraging clients to sell all stocks but rather to thin out holdings which may be overextended and shift to defensive areas. The decision to go all cash was mine.

I remember trading back in the 1990s. I would watch the oil sector a lot then. Every day, there were news reports of refineries getting shut down for mechanical or technical problems, reports of pipeline crises, tanker issues, fear that OPEC cutting production would cause a panic, and a lot more that I have long forgotten. All of the news was geared to make you think prices would rise and an oil crisis was imminent ---- yet the oil price simply went straight down in the 1990s and we had an oil glut and a booming economy.

What I'm saying is, be very careful who you LISTEN to. In fact, my experience with news in the oil sector in the 1990s convinced me to stick with technicals. I pretty much ignore news in my investing at this point.

Oil was only a part of our discussion but it was an important part. The gist of the call was that the risk/reward ration is not very favorable right now and I agreed, perhaps more fervently than he would have liked.

[BullBear52x]

It's holy season, Joy and peace time snakeville.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMmYCKlHuKM