01/02/2015 Live Update

[Heck]

By by bull something rotten in Denmark

what news from denmak, something bad?

Danish Havarti & Port Salut

[cletus]

VXN is now in the death zone. But, the signal has been consistent, you need a big red down bar to confirm the bottom. This has worked for a while, maybe it stops. Anyway, the point is you need at least the big red down bar to start, then another follow through day, and we have yet to even see the big red down bar yet. So, bulls might have to wait a bit.

[cletus]

Energy stocks are rallying pretty well now that crude is apparently rising. Hm, probably a mistake to sell out of PSX, but I certainly wasn't bearish on it. Just neutral for now.

[johnnywa]

By by bull something rotten in Denmark

what news from denmak, something bad?

Its a phrase

[fehro]

SPX .. steep yellow channel.. VIX weakening.. minor div on the MacD atm

[DellGriffith]

This is an unusual alignment of large double red bars to start a correction.

September 20th, 2013 was similar. Everything kept falling for about 3 weeks.

February 21st, 2013 was a second red bar, followed by a bear flag for two days and then a huge red bar terminating at the lower bb.

October 9th and 10th, 2012 were two red bars that broke a long multimonth rally. The second red bar hit the lower bb and it stopped there and we got a week long relief rally before a lower high and big drop.

The overall theme I see is that two red bars to start a correction mean a visit to the lower bb. In most cases, the second red bar tags the lower bb. In cases where it does not (and this is one of those) price just drops straight down to the lower bb over several days.

So that is my current bias. I think we just keep falling until the lower bb is hit.

[FlowerGirl]

XIV daily for FlowerGirl.. touch and go at this point.. could hold, could fail miserably… hence the sharp up channel in the VIX

ATM my ST signals are mixed...not much help...staying in cash...
My NUGT entry was missed by 1 cent...too bad...

[ballatines]

$HYG & CL is performance good today .. can't be too bearish on $SPY?

[fehro]

XIV daily for FlowerGirl.. touch and go at this point.. could hold, could fail miserably… hence the sharp up channel in the VIX

ATM my ST signals are mixed...not much help...staying in cash...
My NUGT entry was missed by 1 cent...too bad...

keep your eye on USO/UCO.. maybe close for a dead cat bounce.. possible falling bullish wedge… *added orange overhead.. a break above both trends could be explosive upwards.. and if it does.. weekly candle on USO .. may.. and that's a big may.. print a hammer

[Al_Dente]

First Five Days “Rule”: As goes the first five trading days, so goes the year.
In other words: at the close on Jan 8 (the fifth trading day) SPY must be above $208.19 (SPYs closing price on dec 31) to give us green odds for 2015.
Lower than $208.19 will give us red odds for 2015.
Please correct me if I’m wrong

[brucekeller]

$HYG & CL is performance good today .. can't be too bearish on $SPY?

Right now CL is a dead cat bounce until proven otherwise. Its rise coincidentally might be stopping right about here at 53.64

[q2model]

First Five Days “Rule”: As goes the first five trading days, so goes the year.
In other words: at the close on Jan 8 (the fifth trading day) SPY must be above $208.19 (SPYs closing price on dec 31) to give us green odds for 2015.
Lower than $208.19 will give us red odds for 2015.
Please correct me if I’m wrong

Dec 31 close is not 208.19

[Al_Dente]

Banks printed a "reversal day" on Wednesday (so did Tran, not shown here)
TA “rule” for a reversal day candle is: short term long above top of that candle; short term sell below bottom of that candle = ST sell confirmed

[Out of Bounds]

Banks printed a "reversal day" on Wednesday (so did Tran, not shown here)

Thanks. I missed that.

[Al_Dente]

First Five Days “Rule”: As goes the first five trading days, so goes the year.
In other words: at the close on Jan 8 (the fifth trading day) SPY must be above $208.19 (SPYs closing price on dec 31) to give us green odds for 2015.
Lower than $208.19 will give us red odds for 2015.
Please correct me if I’m wrong

Dec 31 close is not 208.19

Thank you very much
12/31 Intraday high = 208.19
12/31 Close = 205.54
I think the benchmark for the rule is the close 205.54
Can anyone confirm this?

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/01 ... ay-update/

[Al_Dente]

............Thanks.........

OT
A % view of juiced shorts over the last 15 days

[fehro]

SPX

[FlowerGirl]

...12/18 closing bar was more than a rouge trade....
Some possibilities that I have on my whit board...

[Out of Bounds]

short SPY 205.30