Cobra's Market View

MrMiyagi wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Anyone else see this?

What would be the next step?

It broke down, could have gone either way

SPX still struggles... VIX perking up... AAPL another new LOD... SPX red VIX red

USO nearing 20d retest at 15.01.. hence the pressure on the indexes.. energy profit taking?

10/9 Friday:
ES Non-commercials are not buying the rally [COT]. They added to net shorts, which are now the highest since December 2011.
Through Wednesday, domestic equity funds reported net outflows of $3.7 billion [Lipper].
NYSE short interest is at record levels [massive short interest has been known to produce massive short squeezes].
The real surprise is a huge $53 billion inflow into Money-markets (largest in 2 years) [BACml]
“…rising cash levels indicate big risk rally …driven primarily by short-covering rather than fresh risk-on." [BACml]

Be on the ALERT for short covering, especially at breakouts........ [Pasta]

Al_Dente wrote:10/9 Friday:
ES Non-commercials are not buying the rally [COT]. They added to net shorts, which are now the highest since December 2011.
Through Wednesday, domestic equity funds reported net outflows of $3.7 billion [Lipper].
NYSE short interest is at record levels [massive short interest has been known to produce massive short squeezes].
The real surprise is a huge $53 billion inflow into Money-markets (largest in 2 years) [BACml]
“…rising cash levels indicate big risk rally …driven primarily by short-covering rather than fresh risk-on." [BACml]

Be on the ALERT for short covering, especially at breakouts........ [Pasta]

Pasta loves a good squeeze

Out of Bounds wrote:Pasta loves a good squeeze

ELSEWHERE:
Advancing stocks are 0.95 x declining stocks
Advancing volume is 0.50 x declining volume
Declining stocks are 1.05 x advancing stocks
Declining volume is 2 x advancing volume

Pretty boring….. the only standout is DOWN VOLUME, which means plenty of selling volume in few stocks

Let’s look at TICK, using 500/-500 on the raw 5min TICK.
Assume anything in-between +500 and -500 is noise (the grey lines)
Looking for tick moves ABOVE the green line (> +500 = up bias) or BELOW the red line (< -500 = down bias) for direction
This morning I see “positive” ticks (eg: above +500), and the rest is noise in the gray zone... so far...

Al_Dente wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Pasta loves a good squeeze

plenty of selling volume in few stocks

1012tick five.png.png

If AAPL wakes up,could mean a good push.

These are ALL JUICED SHORTS on the 5min
The only standout short I see here today is short oil (SCO), which is trying to breakout of a double/triple top

We really need a fresh high today, otherwise we are faulked
$201.91 would do the trick

Earnings: Johnson & Johnson reports pre-open tomorrow, Tuesday
CSX, INTC, and JPM report after tomorrow’s close.

SPX still struggling weakish.. .. possible orange ascending triangle.. VIX still didn't under cut FOMC spike and a tag better support.. kinda double bottom on VIX.. don't love it.. prefer an undercut.. SPX breaks red uptrend.. then could get ugly

If $VIX in red N days, SPX tomorrow chance of green:red =

Consecutive Days Times Next_Day_Up Down Even
N=1 1524 815 708 1
N=2 809 464 344 1
N=3 429 212 217
N=4 203 104 98
N=5 83 49 34
N=6 42 25 17
N=7 22 9 13
N=8 9 5 4
N=9 5 1 4
N=10 2 1 1
N=11
N=12

When N=10, next day SPX up:down = 1:1. Not many odds, just two events historically. N never greater than 10.

volume coming in to SPY.. . big question is it buying or selling...

First attempt on breakout failed, let see if it can today.

not sure if we have Fib 61.8% mm here.

Hourly volatility is still green-bull-spy
SPY “Ascending Broadening Wedge” (like a megaphone tilted up).
http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

Here is my fundamental, if no new injection, there will be no new high, the rainbows people already talk negative rate is coming.

Back to the sector LONGS, 5min
Guess who else brokeout above that 17 Sept high (pink) today
Yeah baby

Soon it will be hard to talk deflation when the dollar moving lower.