11/13/2015 Live Update

[Unique]

VXX chart update

[daytradingES]

we are below the breakdown level of 2072.50
(L2022.75 @ 9:16)
so rebounds to be sold

[fehro]

SPX .. VIX into some resistance here, but open gap 2022-2019 .. so close

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B checking in.

The NYMO cycle continues down.

I sold the down cycle confirmation October 21 and took a punch stopping out October 22. Ouch.
I reloaded short week before last and scaled out half yesterday. I have added long hedges here to get near neutral.
I confess to being bashful posting after Mr. Market smacked my last post, but it shows the NYMO model suggests that a move will come and where it might go not so much when or from where.
In this case a big divergence became a huge divergence.

The chart is real interesting here.
We have tagged the middle Keltner band this morning with the NYMO piercing into the potential turn zone.
It's the close that matters though.
It is still a ways away from the oversold zone.
More importantly, we are still above the benchmark of SPX 2016.50 for this down cycle.
Two weeks ago the benchmark seemed like an impossibility. Now it is in striking distance. Wow.

Perhaps we keep tanking to get to the benchmark or beyond, but it would not be unusual to have a bounce that brings NYMO back toward the zero area first.
OPEX is coming.
The next down thrust could then take out the benchmark or better with NYMO either getting oversold or putting in a positive divergence (by month-end?).
We shall see. I'll be watching for a tag of the 50 day MA.

I would like to do nothing for the next week (or dabble long maybe) but the game plan is to remove hedges on a rally or a rout.

[Trades with cats]

Well seriously when the Department of Commerce shows retail tanking just before the holiday shopping season starts that can't be good for a consumer driven economy. And with performance as bad as it has been for hedge funds the 'I want my money back' letters must be pouring in so that only leaves buyback money to move this thing higher.

[Al_Dente]

Well seriously when the Department of Commerce shows retail tanking just before the holiday shopping season starts that can't be good for a consumer driven economy. And with performance as bad as it has been for hedge funds the 'I want my money back' letters must be pouring in so that only leaves buyback money to move this thing higher.

JWN

[Unique]

AMZN: Out of my couple weekly 665 weekly puts. +700% gain

[josephli]

Well seriously when the Department of Commerce shows retail tanking just before the holiday shopping season starts that can't be good for a consumer driven economy. And with performance as bad as it has been for hedge funds the 'I want my money back' letters must be pouring in so that only leaves buyback money to move this thing higher.

Well, Bill Ackman has been panicking after Valeant tanked.

[Trades with cats]

Lets not forget Sequoia.

[josephli]

Lets not forget Sequoia.

What does that mean?

[Unique]

Might go for 2029.5 retest here ES, which is the 5m 20ema and 15m 8ema

[daytradingES]

For the market to hold even one apparently needs new buying, so any new selling is downward pressure.

If you were a fund manager and looking to keep your job and you had seen a dead cat bounce back towards old highs (2132.25) but failing to reach them (2110.25) (71 days) and then falling off strongly with no support levels and the flash low 1831 two and 1/2 months before (24 aug) wouldn't you sell?

If you are in the bottom quintile for 2 or 3 quarters your job is in jeopardy. You don't have to be the best you just have to stay in the middle to keep your job.

[fehro]

AMZN: Out of my couple weekly 665 weekly puts. +700% gain

nice!. drinks on Unique tonight!

[fehro]

VIX wild swings..

[daytradingES]

bounce to 2031.75 area? (ES)

[Trades with cats]

Sequoia fund, according to the Wall Street Journal, has 1/3 of their money in Valiant Pharma. Two outside directors resigned this spring when it started to get ugly.

The real point is that we will be seeing several hedge funds close after year end.

[Trades with cats]

Small caps on fire, nice V recovery closing in on the gap fill. The ES looks like the co-located HFT servers are broken. What is going on ?

[Unique]

I'm done for the day, exhausted after a long week. Have a great weekend everyone!!!

ES: Rejected first try at the 5m 20ema/15m 8ema so far...loving this train that keeps on gifting

[Mr. BachNut]

Well seriously when the Department of Commerce shows retail tanking just before the holiday shopping season starts that can't be good for a consumer driven economy. And with performance as bad as it has been for hedge funds the 'I want my money back' letters must be pouring in so that only leaves buyback money to move this thing higher.

Probably worth noting that we are also coming into tax loss selling season between now and mid-December.
You guys are probably aware that a large chunk of the recent rally in the indexes was driven by a narrow set of big cap stocks.
There is a large cohort of stocks (not to mention other things... gold, etc.) that might get the heave ho for tax reasons.
We could get an interesting low in December for a Santa rally.
And if Santa fails to call...

[josephli]

Sequoia fund, according to the Wall Street Journal, has 1/3 of their money in Valiant Pharma. Two outside directors resigned this spring when it started to get ugly.

The real point is that we will be seeing several hedge funds close after year end.

I see. Thanks. Oh well, they are smaller than pershing square, and does not have ackman's stardom. but quite a thing to watch now.