Cobra's Market View

josephli wrote:

brokebybernacke2 wrote:

Daniel wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Starting to scale in shorts to hold over the next few days. Taking advantage of these rips.

Ditto. But I'm going to wait until post-jobs report. This market just itchyy-wants to go to the obvious targets SPX 2000 and SPY 200, thereabouts, and have a Gunfight at the OK Corral over the future direction of the interm. term market levels. The NFP may be an 'excuse' to run price there.

If so, I'd rather be tardy in re-instituting shorts than run over. As Cobra always says, in an easy money highly-liquid environment, "all bulls needs is imagination".

a really strong jobs report would make some nervous...

a strong report open to march or april rate hike.

dont think the fed will raise in march, guessing they wait for some more confirmation, so that gets a bounce of some sort..until april or may -that be the hike and more of an impetus for bears, opinion..

BPNYA doesn't show any sign of weakness ...

♫ "drifting along like a tumbling tumbleweed"

Back later. Might watch a bit of the GOP "take no prisoners" civil war.

Conspiracy Theorist story #1 on former Chesapeake Energy CEO's car crash.

uempel wrote:BPNYA doesn't show any sign of weakness ...

kur.png

Hey Uempel - what is the math behind BPNYA? Not so much the NYA part, but the BP What is it that it is displaying? Thanks.

Tutti wrote:

uempel wrote:BPNYA doesn't show any sign of weakness ...

kur.png

Hey Uempel - what is the math behind BPNYA? Not so much the NYA part, but the BP What is it that it is displaying? Thanks.

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... rcent_inde

SPX red VIX red

Tutti wrote:

uempel wrote:BPNYA doesn't show any sign of weakness ...

kur.png

Hey Uempel - what is the math behind BPNYA? Not so much the NYA part, but the BP What is it that it is displaying? Thanks.

Tutti, as to BPNYA: at the moment I consider it the best BP to assess SPX moves.
As to the idea behind BPs:I wrote this about a year ago. If you want more specific info, send me a pm.

Bullish Percentages show what percentage of an index' components are on a P&F buy signal. The BP shows the momentum of the market, of a specific index.
What is a P&F buy signal? A P&F chart shows us if an equity is on a „buy“ or a „sell“ signal.
Bullish Percentages add up all the „buys“ and „sells“ of an index (such as NYSE: BPNYA, SPX: BPSPX, DJIA: BPINDU, NASDAQ: BPCOMPQ). A number like BPSPX 70 tells us that 70% of the 500 components of SPX are on a „buy“ signal.
If an increasing amount of SPX components are on a P&F "buy" and BPSPX is up it's likely that SPX will move up too - and vice versa. BPs show the internal strength of the index.
The downside of BPs is that they are not capital weighted - whereas indices such as SPX are capital weighted (DJIA is the only exception). For instance: should three heavily weighted equities such as aapl, msft and xom shoot up 15% next Monday whereas all other components of SPX are slightly down SPX will be up - the three heavily weighted equities pull the index up. But BPSPX will be down, because a few of the 497 other components of the index will slide into a P&F „sell“.
Eventually such distortions will be corrected: a narrow market signals weakness and the index tends to follow its Bullish Percentage. But these distortions can go on for weeks.
Whoever wants to monitor distortions of BPSPX can check the daily moves of the heavily weighted equities in SPX. The percentage numbers here indicate their weight in SPX: aapl 4,97%, xom (Exxon) 3.24%, ibm 1.81%, ge 1.78%, msft 1.76%, cvx (Chevron) 1.75%, att 1.67%, pg (Procter) 1.44%, wfc (Wells Fargo) 1.42 % (hey, the most heavily capitalized bank in the US, everybody thinks Citi is numero uno!), jnj, goog, pfe, ko (Coca Cola),jpm, pm (Philip Morris), orcl, vz (Verizon), wm, intc, qcom - the weighting of Qualcomm is still 0.84% of SPX. Please note that these figures are a few months old.
© uempel

uempel wrote:

Tutti wrote:

uempel wrote:BPNYA doesn't show any sign of weakness ...

kur.png

Hey Uempel - what is the math behind BPNYA? Not so much the NYA part, but the BP What is it that it is displaying? Thanks.

Tutti, as to BPNYA: at the moment I consider it the best BP to assess SPX moves.
As to the idea behind BPs:I wrote this about a year ago. If you want more specific info, send me a pm.

Bullish Percentages show what percentage of an index' components are on a P&F buy signal. The BP shows the momentum of the market, of a specific index.
What is a P&F buy signal? A P&F chart shows us if an equity is on a „buy“ or a „sell“ signal.
Bullish Percentages add up all the „buys“ and „sells“ of an index (such as NYSE: BPNYA, SPX: BPSPX, DJIA: BPINDU, NASDAQ: BPCOMPQ). A number like BPSPX 70 tells us that 70% of the 500 components of SPX are on a „buy“ signal.
If an increasing amount of SPX components are on a P&F "buy" and BPSPX is up it's likely that SPX will move up too - and vice versa. BPs show the internal strength of the index.
The downside of BPs is that they are not capital weighted - whereas indices such as SPX are capital weighted (DJIA is the only exception). For instance: should three heavily weighted equities such as aapl, msft and xom shoot up 15% next Monday whereas all other components of SPX are slightly down SPX will be up - the three heavily weighted equities pull the index up. But BPSPX will be down, because a few of the 497 other components of the index will slide into a P&F „sell“.
Eventually such distortions will be corrected: a narrow market signals weakness and the index tends to follow its Bullish Percentage. But these distortions can go on for weeks.
Whoever wants to monitor distortions of BPSPX can check the daily moves of the heavily weighted equities in SPX. The percentage numbers here indicate their weight in SPX: aapl 4,97%, xom (Exxon) 3.24%, ibm 1.81%, ge 1.78%, msft 1.76%, cvx (Chevron) 1.75%, att 1.67%, pg (Procter) 1.44%, wfc (Wells Fargo) 1.42 % (hey, the most heavily capitalized bank in the US, everybody thinks Citi is numero uno!), jnj, goog, pfe, ko (Coca Cola),jpm, pm (Philip Morris), orcl, vz (Verizon), wm, intc, qcom - the weighting of Qualcomm is still 0.84% of SPX. Please note that these figures are a few months old.
© uempel

Thanks! Let me read and digest and i'll send a PM if I have any questions.

3rd test, breakout is more likely.

oh come on.. it's just a small gap.. fill it already.. .. the longer it takes, and the if doesn't fill.. bodes better for the bears.. fwiw.

20w SMA 1995.76

SPY $199.05 intraday hit.

NYMO at +96.38, day high and positive. Was negative earlier around +91.

Sold a few more shorts here at this HOD (so far). So, I am about 20% short at the moment. Not looking for immediate plunge. Just selling spikes.

VIX nears 14 month support, TLT green,

uempel wrote:EMA 377 quite good at interfering with bullish runs. But Bullish Percentages are up and show no sign of turning to the downside. As long as BPNYA is positive the market rebound has not topped and the bias is bullish

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

fr.png

I like your prediction thumbup

Some NYSE leaders on the day ...

Daily SPY:

Looks like the next event is a shorting opportunity.
The midline of the bollinger band will cross the 50 DMA soon.
History shows price hits the lower bb within 1 month of that event in most cases.
That cross is imminent.
We'll see if it happens again!

I think it's about time to go down, I put my money where my mouth is.
I just bought 50 each;
April 15 190 puts
&
April 15 185 puts

I'm either right or out a bunch of money.

sooo pretty.. TLT/GLD/SPX/VIX