Cobra's Market View

gappy wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:RATE WATCH:
At a certain point, higher rates start being too stressful for long equities
(for example: Freddie Mac: "if rates continue their upward trend, expect mortgage activity to be significantly subdued in 2017."

10 year treasury yield $TNX, possible stress point:
SocGen: 2.60%
Goldman: 2.75%
JPM: 2.75%
Gundlach: 3%

Today $TNX hit 26.21 (2.62% yield) and pulled back a smidge

then again...

Capture.PNG

maybe tar baby lurks.

QE4？


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Ah! Now that would really be something.

watch for the slippery road. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgP0aUKlmNw

I have a hard time thinking all the really well paid smart people at Bridgewater and others haven't made changes to their models prior to the most advertised rate hike in history. They are paid to make money not to bring down the market. Of course if it gets beyond their parameters then they will, once again, bring down the market.

Must be a storm in Chicago knocking out Citadel's laser line to New Jersey.

I got a big sell signal on daily SPY that doesn't come up very often. Last time was 20 months ago. It says were taking a pretty good drop.

My sell signal's track record: it has won 14 of the last 15 times.

Is fern here today?

I am out, done for the day. Peace!

Chart for the road: Topping process is on its way but don't let these short term mess fool you on longer term they will be messy on these no man's land area. Peace!

BullBear52x wrote:... don't let these short term mess fool you on longer term they will be messy on these no man's land area...

Just messy all the time, is that the message?

stockcharts.com:
There has been a big change to intraday data for S&P Dow Jones Indices and chartists using volume indicators should take this into consideration.
Basically, S&P Dow Jones started using data from the "Consolidated Tape of all recognized U.S. exchanges"….
Note that this change affects INTRADAY volume data.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_ig ... -indu.html

DellGriffith wrote:My sell signal's track record: it has won 14 of the last 15 times.

Thanks! How big is the drop? When last time you got it?


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I have ES VWAP at 2260, a very achievable target.

Al_Dente wrote:stockcharts.com:
There has been a big change to intraday data for S&P Dow Jones Indices and chartists using volume indicators should take this into consideration.
Basically, S&P Dow Jones started using data from the "Consolidated Tape of all recognized U.S. exchanges"….
Note that this change affects INTRADAY volume data.
http://stockcharts.com/articles/dont_ig ... -indu.html

Thanks!!! that explains a lot.

The unusual price action continues:

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/12 ... ay-update/

There are no strong insights in the above.... just highlighting that this Nov - Dec period continues to be different.

-D

Al_Dente wrote:Is fern here today?

Been in and out today running errands with the wife. Almost bought some TNA around 1:00, but held off. Thx!

% since PEOTUS Day
Hourly

This could be controlled selling. Someone big is selling chunks at a time, and then letting the market float up before the next dump.

te_fern wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:Is fern here today?

Been in and out today running errands with the wife. Almost bought some TNA around 1:00, but held off. Thx!

This is what I meant by trading with the trend
IWM only, 1m, intraday only…
Yes the 34/89 crossed to bull but can it last out the day before flipflopping back to bear… IDK """"""""Almost bought some TNA around 1:00, but held off"""""""
1:00 would have been a "cover short" point, but that's only if you were still trading a bear trend...that's just me... grain of salt... FWIW...