Cobra's Market View

ISM came out quite bad in Jan 2008 after a good run all thru late 2007 and that ISM data marked the beginning of a very rough period and eventually the fall of 2008 ( remember oct 08 ) Just wondering if we could be entering into another pattern similar to the top of 2007... (July top and then November top )charts look eerily similar now, if so, august will be bad now.

anyone know why the dollar is rallying on the weak ISM number? should do the opposite... also euro selling off?

A song for AAPL: "...you are amazing, just the way you are..."

OIH, support at 155 and 150.

Qs. support at 57.

Taking partial profit with this drop. as long as AAPL holds, need to be conservative on the short side.

commodity bets are off as manufacture weak? EUR down!

Cobra, et al,

Good morning. Busy week behind us, I see. Got back over the weekend from a family cruise, so I missed the fun. Glad I was in cash, or I would have gotten badly hurt, I think.

Expect we'll see lots more volatility this week, until the final votes on the debt ceiling "deal" are in. Good to know we'll be cutting $1 trillion over the next 10 years, while simultaneously adding an additional $80 billion per month in new debt, isn't it? Although, I hear tell we may be getting an additional $5 trillion in savings by not going to war with England...

Good trading all!
A

well, at least now the previous low was revisited, so bulls still have hopes as it can be seen as double bottom. I'm not sure where the market is heading now, seems IWM didn't sell much. Let's wait and see.

Cobra wrote:well, at least now the previous low was revisited, so bulls still have hopes as it can be seen as double bottom. I'm not sure where the market is heading now, seems IWM didn't sell much. Let's wait and see.

also the /es 1274.75 gap held, a good sign ...

Mr. BachNut wrote:

pdz wrote:P-bar target reached.It seems any P-bar is always reached regardless of good or bad news.

The Phantom Bar strikes again! This one was particularly impressive for the size of the move given the open.

Those phantom bars are really quite scary. I can't even begin to come up with why that works as a targetting mechanism.

SPX
MACD cross.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/spx_01.html

Out of Bounds wrote:Sold my longs this morning and went short in premarket. Probably too early to sell BAC but $10 was too tempting.

Excellent play, Out of Bounds!
Congrats!

VIX has not broken Friday's high (yet) despite this morning's swan dive. Put on a bottom fishing long (agree with Cobra Impulse) with stop looking for some kind of relief rally this week.

pablorynx wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:

pdz wrote:P-bar target reached.It seems any P-bar is always reached regardless of good or bad news.

The Phantom Bar strikes again! This one was particularly impressive for the size of the move given the open.

Those phantom bars are really quite scary. I can't even begin to come up with why that works as a targetting mechanism.

My time and sales from IB shows a trade at 127.97 on 7/29. Is it really a phantom?

cougar wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Sold my longs this morning and went short in premarket. Probably too early to sell BAC but $10 was too tempting.

Excellent play, Out of Bounds!
Congrats!

Thanks, I had been waiting for this debt deal rally and sharpening my knife.

Cobra wrote:well, at least now the previous low was revisited, so bulls still have hopes as it can be seen as double bottom. I'm not sure where the market is heading now, seems IWM didn't sell much. Let's wait and see.

looks flagging. test new lows coming?

Watch your head...
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/08/rut.html
Low ceiling.

Out of Bounds wrote:

cougar wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Sold my longs this morning and went short in premarket. Probably too early to sell BAC but $10 was too tempting.

Excellent play, Out of Bounds!
Congrats!

Thanks, I had been waiting for this debt deal rally and sharpening my knife.

sell the news, the oldest trick in the book. unfortunately there is no *news* yet so the market is actually selling off on ISM not the debt deal. vote still to come....

i am long 1276, holding out for much higher prices.

could be the 2nd leg up here, could fail at any time. it's rare that the morning sell off is just one leg, so more likely the morning low will be revisited either with lower low or higher low.

IWM update:
Again, sell the TOPS!
Note that the good old "Dow scale" works...

We held 1282 and if we see an up trend this week BWLD is now on my list to watch.It has had a good pull back to the lower part of the channel.The RSI's and STO's are starting to turn up and has had a good up trend.May be a good swing trade.Still holding NFLX for more up.Lets see.

euro getting clobbered. no idea why... i am long crude 94.95, stop even