Cobra's Market View

Why I watch this NDX monthly chart:
I would consider another ”Oops!...Whipsaw” formation as delivering a bullish signal, since it successfully happened twice before: in ’03 and in ’06 (see chart).
Inversely, a failure to complete the RSI/SMA(5) crossover, like in May/June ’08, would be bearish.
===========

Technical note: On sub-graph 2, SMA(5) is an open end indicator, while RSI is an oscillator limited to variations between 0 and 100. TA purists would argue that they should not be represented on the same graph. However, RSI can be adjusted to fit on its scale the exact amplitude of the SMA movements, displayed for a specific time period. This seems to work. After all, as BullBear noted, TA is not a science…It is a simple production of “directional hints”, based on previous occurrences…

cougar wrote:Why I watch this NDX monthly chart:
I would consider another ”Oops!...Whipsaw” formation as delivering a bullish signal, since it successfully happened twice before: in ’03 and in ’06 (see chart).
Inversely, a failure to complete the RSI/SMA(5) crossover, like in May/June ’08, would be bearish.
===========

Technical note: On sub-graph 2, SMA(5) is an open end indicator, while RSI is an oscillator limited to variations between 0 and 100. TA purists would argue that they should not be represented on the same graph. However, RSI can be adjusted to fit on its scale the exact amplitude of the SMA movements, displayed for a specific time period. This seems to work. After all, as BullBear noted, TA is not a science…It is a simple production of “directional hints”, based on previous occurrences…

Thanks cougar you gave me too much credit, I can not see a chart that can match yours just yet.

In case you missed it an article on Greece.

http://stk.ly/pCSpgf

Someone on the main board last week also chirped about watching the Greek 10yr bond; here’s more from yest:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/your- ... &emc=tha25
all I can find is NBG (nat’l bank of greece) on freestockcharts
and NBG and $GRDOW on stockcharts.
So, here’s Al’s simple chart of $GRDOW with price overlay NGB (faded pink dotted line) and $SPX (purple) behind, which helps answer our ongoing question “What is SPX ignoring?”
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GRDOW ... =248091728
I don’t find Greece at forexpros.com but then I don’t know what (symbol) to look for (jarbo?)

BullBear52x wrote:

cougar wrote:Why I watch this NDX monthly chart: I would consider another ”Oops!...Whipsaw” formation as delivering a bullish signal, since it successfully happened twice before: in ’03 and in ’06 (see chart). Inversely, a failure to complete the RSI/SMA(5) crossover, like in May/June ’08, would be bearish. Technical note: On sub-graph 2, SMA(5) is an open end indicator, while RSI is an oscillator limited to variations between 0 and 100. TA purists would argue that they should not be represented on the same graph. However, RSI can be adjusted to fit on its scale the exact amplitude of the SMA movements, displayed for a specific time period. This seems to work. After all, as BullBear noted, TA is not a science…It is a simple production of “directional hints”, based on previous occurrences…

Thanks cougar you gave me too much credit, I can not see a chart that can match yours just yet.

Sorry to interrupt this "bromance", but just for fun, pop on over to king cobra’s market outlook page; they’re talking about a “MONSTER GAP UP” over there !

Al_Dente wrote:Someone on the main board last week also chirped about watching the Greek 10yr bond; here’s more from yest:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/your- ... &emc=tha25
all I can find is NBG (nat’l bank of greece) on freestockcharts
and NBG and $GRDOW on stockcharts.
So, here’s Al’s simple chart of $GRDOW with price overlay NGB (faded pink dotted line) and $SPX (purple) behind, which helps answer our ongoing question “What is SPX ignoring?”
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GRDOW ... =248091728
I don’t find Greece at forexpros.com but then I don’t know what (symbol) to look for (jarbo?)

Here is the 1 year on Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1YR:IND

10 year

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB10YR:IND

Just change the number to get the year.

tdo722 wrote:Man, i love your t/a very much bullbear52. Quick question, why did you decided to hold short overnight at the close of thursday?

Ditto! Awesome, awesome TA! Thanks bullbear52!

The MACD on the daily chart has me worried and leaning towards the short side this week.

dcurban1 wrote:

spx1104111.JPG

The MACD on the daily chart has me worried and leaning towards the short side this week.

PS: thanks dcurban1 for the greek bonds link…the futures are open…. pass the Ouzo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AzpHvLWFUM

Sunday Evening Updates

EURUSD http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/eurusd_5886.html
ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/11/es_7254.html

Have a nice one.

cougar wrote:Why I watch this NDX monthly chart:
I would consider another ”Oops!...Whipsaw” formation as delivering a bullish signal, since it successfully happened twice before: in ’03 and in ’06 (see chart).
Inversely, a failure to complete the RSI/SMA(5) crossover, like in May/June ’08, would be bearish.
===========

Technical note: On sub-graph 2, SMA(5) is an open end indicator, while RSI is an oscillator limited to variations between 0 and 100. TA purists would argue that they should not be represented on the same graph. However, RSI can be adjusted to fit on its scale the exact amplitude of the SMA movements, displayed for a specific time period. This seems to work. After all, as BullBear noted, TA is not a science…It is a simple production of “directional hints”, based on previous occurrences…

Cougar,
Thanks for responding to my email.
I like your chart; easy to see key areas. There are many rules with RSI; they are hard to remember and keep straight. There is one http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... trength_in chart like yours in chart school, at the bottom of the page. It seems that playing with the RSI time period may help your system. They also added a SMA of the RSI, which could make your crossovers cleaner(timing may not work). . Anyway

I did some back tracing analysis with daily Eler signals Close to Close, High to High, Low to Low on the S&P. I did a 7 point match(green, red, blue) for the last 3 days. I found 4 date matches over the last 10,000 days. The results below are for what happened the day after. All had good negative OL swings . Two had 0 OHs. Two dates had significant market drops within 5 days. The last date, 8/25/11 , continued an uptrend, but had a good OL swing.

Bears holding either from 1292 or 1263 - futures down 16. Looks a small gap down.