Cobra's Market View

BullBear52x wrote:

CH37 wrote:I think yesterday high data of ISEE, probably due to huge calls volume on MU.

What's the news on MU they lost like 200mil, I thought they are going to 7.7ish, now almost bullish cross

CH37 wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

CH37 wrote:I think yesterday high data of ISEE, probably due to huge calls volume on MU.

What's the news on MU they lost like 200mil, I thought they are going to 7.7ish, now almost bullish cross

The reason why I mentioned MU calls, because of yesterday ISEE (All Equities Only) is 410 !
I never see this high within 3 years. So, I checked option activities. It seems huge calls volume from MU contribute partially this 410 !

KENA wrote:COBRA..Could not post on Quote on the above.Need a better way to delete.Refresh does not work most of the time so had to post to delete..Thanks

TraderGirl wrote:UUP bounced at lower trend line with a peek through most likely indicating it's continued direction?? If this bounce can hold through tomorrow, we may get a move up in the dollar with a corresponding pullback in PM's and equity markets. The last time we got a bounce off the bottom trend line, the markets corrected, so we may get that, but then if the dollar starts to turn down again, we could get a pretty strong bounce in PM's, IMHO...

There is a strong reversal date in PM's between 27-29th.

BullBear52x wrote:Guess who's the weakest link today? beside financial. Oh! it's at a support now.

KENA wrote:To taggard..Thanks for your post..That is good info to follow...Ps My son's tag is taagard,every time I see your posts I wounder what is he doing here.

Cobra wrote:

KENA wrote:COBRA..Could not post on Quote on the above.Need a better way to delete.Refresh does not work most of the time so had to post to delete..Thanks

Sorry, don't understand what you're saying.

Al_Dente wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Guess who's the weakest link today? beside financial. Oh! it's at a support now.

baron
what time frame
how many days?
thx

taggard wrote:

KENA wrote:I did some researsh on the 3 peaks and domed house..The best I could find is we are now between 22 and 23..Dn to 24 will not happen until mid April.Point 26 will not happen until Oct.area.Things change so just watch the progress.

george1.png

A ta person i have followed for 12 years actually has george lindsays notes (given to her by the guy she learned from) it seems there are over 100 pages of notes this guy made on this pattern--including 27 pages of notes on "counts from the middle section". I think this overall makes the pattern less trustworthy. anything too complex is hard to use trading. never the less--a key idea is there is a set time for the move up from either 10 or 14 depending on which count you use. (yeah he had alternate counts) the period of time is 7 months 10 days (all days are counted not just trading days) which puts the key top in may (best case) to july worst case. given the complex nature of the pattern (along with the absurd detail in the notes) most likely the best way to use the pattern is more of a general idea and with the widest timing.

(a general idea means look at each move and consider the psych at that time--as opposed to be being 100% focused on the exact visual image of the pattern. all patterns are actually made up of market trading and psych--and as al brooks notes--"if it looks like a pattern (even if it is not exact) it will likely act like a pattern".)

what i don't see is on spx why we have to be between your 22-23 as we have only a shallow pull back to the daily 20 ema. you could be right of course--i would just consider the timed move from 10 to 14 which of course were the lows in 2011.

finally the most useful part of the pattern to people on this site might be the shape of the top (so 21 to 25) if you pull up a monthly and look at the last two tops this is a very different idea. the psych behind the proposed domed top is clearly an explosive move (after a failed pullback). the most logical place for such a move would be close to the old high of 2007. Any breach to the upside would force epic short covering (as many traders will lean short at such a major event) and this would create a short term move of say 50-150 spx points. That in turn could force a move over the last high (and ideally 1600) pulling in everyone with the idea a clear new bull market was in place.

and that of course would finally be the last move of this advance (about 6-12 months after many thought the move would happen). the timing is interesting in terms of the election (eg election could be factored 6 months prior to event and start having effect) and the ECRI recession call (for ball park may-aug of this year) since they have a very good record in general.

only my opinion but (1) would not fixate too much on the exact shape other than the major psych behind the pattern. (2) am not convinced that we are 22-23 but certainly cannot prove we are not. (3) if we get a forced move up around (just at just under or just over) the 2007 high--that is going to be interesting--esp if we get a fast breakdown rather than the typical 6-12 month top formation.

Bonus--readers may want to pull up an dow chart of 1964 to 1984ish and consider the pattern in that light just for "fun".

Cobra wrote:no sharp down then it's bulls turn, the bias is up.