07/20/2012 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Relative strength, indices

[Out of Bounds]

My T mind is running on fumes = I thought your name was "out of blondes"


Sorry Tradergirl....... no pictures of blonde guys please

That would be an appropriate name as I am balding and once had blonde hair.

[SWalsh]

Thank you, every dog got its day, today is my day!

"IF" this plays out, we have all three wave moves up and they could be completed. That would make this not a wave 2 correction (and it's difficult to get a clear wave 1 down) but rather a 5th wave failure.

Of course what the HFTs do will determine where we go, but if selling enters in a magnitude strong enough, they will stand aside. 200 down on the Dow could get interesting:

Great chart SWalsh, thanks for sharing!

If it doesn't work-out perhaps a career in painting modern art is calling!

[Cobra]

Cobra,
Any moving target now? Thx.

no idea if this would work out. range day again, so no easy call for me.

[Jupiter]

Cobra,

would that be 1361?

[gappy]

original.jpg

Courtesy Dr. J from over at Danerics.

[Mr. BachNut]

A little short but not much.
I started rebuilding my short yesterday but was very cautious as technicals continued (until this morning) to improve.
I can't say the top is in, but the chart has features to anticipate such.
Note the following:

Three pushes up to higher highs
A striking McClellan Oscillator divergence
A rising wedge pattern (not broken obviously but has bearish implications)
A possible bull trap piercing of 3 point declining tops line but inside resistance of 2 point declining tops line
Declining volume

The next several days, especially once OPEX is cleared will be clarifying.
For bears, it would be great to see a test of yesterday's high fail some time next week...if there is a test.
A negative closing MO would also be bearish IMO (chart shows intra-day this morning)(note MO is Trade Navigator data set which is different than StockCharts).

I will cautiously add small short layers as evidence builds until we get confirmation of a top.

Pardon the busy chart.

One concern is how subdued the VIX is. Without rising volatility, the machines could just be producing deceptive action.
Another concern is the improving technicals (until this morning). However, I find technicals often look best at the top.

[nicha]

Cobra - I would like to thank you for posting AAPL updates intraday. I saw the p-bar yesterday afternoon to 606 which made me think: hmmm.

Mr Miyagi - you posted a nice colored chart of AAPL showing the same p-bar to 606 and recommended selling some. I did sell all after seeing the chart. I would have gotten a better price had I waited an hour more nonetheless I did not regret selling it earlier.

I am happier today that I did. Thank you1

[Petsamo]

SPY 1 min looks like a megaphone

[SWalsh]

Thank you, every dog got its day, today is my day!

"IF" this plays out, we have all three wave moves up and they could be completed. That would make this not a wave 2 correction (and it's difficult to get a clear wave 1 down) but rather a 5th wave failure.

Of course what the HFTs do will determine where we go, but if selling enters in a magnitude strong enough, they will stand aside. 200 down on the Dow could get interesting:

136.65 is the number I am eyeing today on SPY.

I'm presuming you mean this channel which could be an -A-B-C down. It will likely hold today given the action. Breaking it should be quite significant.

I think I've made it abundantly clear with charts that these Algos play trendlines unless the HFT (with total vision of orders IMO) blow through them. The burst up here has been HFTs again. It bears repeating. If one reads "Dark Pools" you will not view the markets the same. You will look at these channel and trendlines and look for HFT/Algo activity. They are too large a part of the market to be opposed. The big traders who were competition primarily were forced into liquidation during the 2008 drop with some implementing various provisions as they could not sell enough in a given day for redemptions.

[Petsamo]

Nice recovery on RIMM

[Cobra]

hopefully a double bottom here.

[57chevy]

I see some arguments again, please focus on the trade in this forum. If you'd like to discuss something else, please let me know, I can open another forum for you, thanks.

Meanwhile, I see some suggestions about particular person here, if you guys know what I'm talking about and like to let me your opinion, please PM me. If I see enough supports, I'd do something, otherwise I'd just regard it as a personal opinion not majority's idea therefore would do nothing.

I, for one, rather enjoy the HFT commentary accompanied by perspectives as to the political motivations underlying the phenomenon. Most of the trading commentary here (perhaps with the exception of COBRA's conservative and methodical analysis) is wrong most of the time. For my monthly fee I'd rather read something illuminating. If one only wants to read comments that fit nicely within one's limited comfort zone, then one should ignore posts from certain people who may portray brilliant psychotics in the movies.

[joe-gamma]

Look like some consolidation but would be nice to see new lows into Europe close..this is 89 minute midcap future

midcap 720.png (10.13 KiB) Viewed 11907 times

Thanks to all the great charts today!

[Xian]

I see some arguments again, please focus on the trade in this forum. If you'd like to discuss something else, please let me know, I can open another forum for you, thanks.

Meanwhile, I see some suggestions about particular person here, if you guys know what I'm talking about and like to let me your opinion, please PM me. If I see enough supports, I'd do something, otherwise I'd just regard it as a personal opinion not majority's idea therefore would do nothing.

I, for one, rather enjoy the HFT commentary accompanied by perspectives as to the political motivations underlying the phenomenon. Most of the trading commentary here (perhaps with the exception of COBRA's conservative and methodical analysis) is wrong most of the time. For my monthly fee I'd rather read something illuminating. If one only wants to read comments that fit nicely within one's limited comfort zone, then one should ignore posts from certain people who may portray brilliant psychotics in the movies.

There's no monthly fee on this board. Also, there are MANY people who are right often on this board— you're wrong about that.

[victorm]

I see some arguments again, please focus on the trade in this forum. If you'd like to discuss something else, please let me know, I can open another forum for you, thanks.

Meanwhile, I see some suggestions about particular person here, if you guys know what I'm talking about and like to let me your opinion, please PM me. If I see enough supports, I'd do something, otherwise I'd just regard it as a personal opinion not majority's idea therefore would do nothing.

I, for one, rather enjoy the HFT commentary accompanied by perspectives as to the political motivations underlying the phenomenon. Most of the trading commentary here (perhaps with the exception of COBRA's conservative and methodical analysis) is wrong most of the time. For my monthly fee I'd rather read something illuminating. If one only wants to read comments that fit nicely within one's limited comfort zone, then one should ignore posts from certain people who may portray brilliant psychotics in the movies.

you absolutely right 57chevy...

[Mr. BachNut]

One caution about MO divergences...they can become more divergent.
Note period from early February to early March.
That said the current rally has a very different complexion than the last one.

[TraderJoe]

I enjoy your charts and comments Mr. BachNut

[gappy]

I see some arguments again, please focus on the trade in this forum. If you'd like to discuss something else, please let me know, I can open another forum for you, thanks.

Meanwhile, I see some suggestions about particular person here, if you guys know what I'm talking about and like to let me your opinion, please PM me. If I see enough supports, I'd do something, otherwise I'd just regard it as a personal opinion not majority's idea therefore would do nothing.

I, for one, rather enjoy the HFT commentary accompanied by perspectives as to the political motivations underlying the phenomenon. Most of the trading commentary here (perhaps with the exception of COBRA's conservative and methodical analysis) is wrong most of the time. For my monthly fee I'd rather read something illuminating. If one only wants to read comments that fit nicely within one's limited comfort zone, then one should ignore posts from certain people who may portray brilliant psychotics in the movies.

Right/wrong depends on a longer time line than you have accumulated during your membership here.

[Wanderlust]

I see some arguments again, please focus on the trade in this forum. If you'd like to discuss something else, please let me know, I can open another forum for you, thanks.

Meanwhile, I see some suggestions about particular person here, if you guys know what I'm talking about and like to let me your opinion, please PM me. If I see enough supports, I'd do something, otherwise I'd just regard it as a personal opinion not majority's idea therefore would do nothing.

I, for one, rather enjoy the HFT commentary accompanied by perspectives as to the political motivations underlying the phenomenon. Most of the trading commentary here (perhaps with the exception of COBRA's conservative and methodical analysis) is wrong most of the time. For my monthly fee I'd rather read something illuminating. If one only wants to read comments that fit nicely within one's limited comfort zone, then one should ignore posts from certain people who may portray brilliant psychotics in the movies.

you absolutely right 57chevy...

I do have to say, this is one heck of a place to learn, no matter if they are right alll the time or or not. I learn from their mistakes Cobra is tops.