07/21/2012 Weekend Update

[TradingJackal]

Fed reserve meeting is on July 31st. A little after AAPL party till July 31st in anticipation of QE3 may also be an option.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/711141- ... nce-of-qe3

[xfradnex]

Issues with food. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/forget-co ... oised-lift How to play: http://beta.fool.com/tdalmoe/2012/07/17 ... ught/7197/. I guess food related stocks are going to have less profit. Drought may cost country .5 in GDP. Search this link for GDP. http://www.kansascity.com/2012/07/21/37 ... mpact.html. It has been said that the great depression and Black Friday 87 had issues with recovery because of droughts (1930 and 1988). This issue may cancel out some of the market lift expect from being a presidential year.

[joe-gamma]

I ran an odds calc of the S&P over 50 years. Using the exact combination of last 6 volume changes (up,down) and the last 3 days of price (up, down). 68 matching days were found. 40 of those days were up the next day. So there is 58.8% odds of a up day Monday based upon this history. Probably not enough samples to be significant.

Xfrad: thanks for those statistics !
like to crunch #s? take a look at the size of the downmove in Trans, when I glanced at that, my eyes (which often deceive me) seemed to see tendency for followthrough on downside next day, and often left a tail in the candle following day....I do not have the data or software but it may have some substance...

would be something like: show next day o,h,l,c and change when:
Trans net change is -1.5% or more negative,
Trans open is equal or greater than close 2 days and 3 days ago (so its not in downtrend)

and whatever else you feel is important like >200day ma, less than highest high of past 6 months blah blah...

Good luck.
thanks, Joe

[joe-gamma]

more on election years....might mean next year is pretty bleak for economic growth..there are a few studies suggesting strong tendency for stocks to be weak first 2 years into presidency and then pumppriming leads to above average returns in last 2 years
here is one link http://www.investopedia.com/articles/tr ... z21I4zx06K

and another pointing to strong summer returns as we run up toward presidential election (only covers data through 2000)

[joe-gamma]

2004 summer it was not rewarding to be long inJuly, nor in August but there was major accumulation day

2008 did not show the data's positive returns either, maybe this year

[xfradnex]

I ran an odds calc of the S&P over 50 years. Using the exact combination of last 6 volume changes (up,down) and the last 3 days of price (up, down). 68 matching days were found. 40 of those days were up the next day. So there is 58.8% odds of a up day Monday based upon this history. Probably not enough samples to be significant.

Xfrad: thanks for those statistics !
like to crunch #s? take a look at the size of the downmove in Trans, when I glanced at that, my eyes (which often deceive me) seemed to see tendency for followthrough on downside next day, and often left a tail in the candle following day....I do not have the data or software but it may have some substance...

would be something like: show next day o,h,l,c and change when:
Trans net change is -1.5% or more negative,
Trans open is equal or greater than close 2 days and 3 days ago (so its not in downtrend)

and whatever else you feel is important like >200day ma, less than highest high of past 6 months blah blah...

Good luck.
thanks, Joe

I will try tomorrow. There is no excel file for DJT on Yahoo now. Yes, Transports and Financial are leaders and they are both down more than DOW. Also, I use Yahoo data; Yahoo does not provide real opening prices. The Close = the Next day's opening.

[joe-gamma]

I ran an odds calc of the S&P over 50 years. Using the exact combination of last 6 volume changes (up,down) and the last 3 days of price (up, down). 68 matching days were found. 40 of those days were up the next day. So there is 58.8% odds of a up day Monday based upon this history. Probably not enough samples to be significant.

Xfrad: thanks for those statistics !
like to crunch #s? take a look at the size of the downmove in Trans, when I glanced at that, my eyes (which often deceive me) seemed to see tendency for followthrough on downside next day, and often left a tail in the candle following day....I do not have the data or software but it may have some substance...

would be something like: show next day o,h,l,c and change when:
Trans net change is -1.5% or more negative,
Trans open is equal or greater than close 2 days and 3 days ago (so its not in downtrend)

and whatever else you feel is important like >200day ma, less than highest high of past 6 months blah blah...

Good luck.
thanks, Joe

I will try tomorrow. There is no excel file for DJT on Yahoo now. Yes, Transports and Financial are leaders and they are both down more than DOW. Also, I use Yahoo data; Yahoo does not provide real opening prices. The Close = the Next day's opening.

sound like alotta work! Thanks for reply.
PAGING a CURIOUS SYSTEM DEVELOPER


would be something like: show next day o,h,l,c and change when:
Trans net change is -1.5% or more negative,
Trans open is equal or greater than close 2 days and 3 days ago (so its not in downtrend)

and whatever else you feel is important like >200day ma, less than highest high of past 6 months blah blah...

[ClarkW]

All data from last weekend but long term so still worth checking out

[uempel]

Yeah, let's hope for the bounce

Or for some serious pull-up strength...

rut072112MoW.png

I don't use Russel as an indicator, BPNYA was up Friday...

[Al_Dente]

[quote="Al_Dente...

...PAGING COBRA: the link to vote for you fell off your "signature." Please post yr VOTE link, thx

How do non members plug the King on stockcharts? is it followers or vote? thx, joe[/quote][/quote]
hi joe: I think stockharts.com non-members can just click on the link, and that gives cobra some "juice"
while members need to click the link AND THEN CLICK “VOTE”

The link is here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Al_Dente]

Thanks to ALL weekenders for great charts, links and comments

PAGING Keizai… thanks… I’m also wary of a trap.
I like nice clean sell signals here (weekly) and I didn’t get them this week (pink boxes).
This implies that it is not a BIG top yet (?)

And a zoom of my favorite “Risk On/Risk Off “ Ratio (top panel) which likes to track SPY (but hasn’t since June) …… It’s very bearish BUT it is now wedging, with positive divergence. So although investors are clearly chosing safety over risk, bounces may surprise, as earnings season unfolds, and the unpredictable noise of the news drones on.

“Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks.” [Warren Buffett]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns

[Cobra]

anyone uses Tapatalk? I just upgraded it. Don't know if it works now or no.

[ClarkW]

Looks awfully high. Admittedly after looking at charts I feel like bonds and stocks are heading lower which doesn't work. CONFUSED!
EDIT: Borrowed/stole this from someone....assuming King Cobra or Dr. Al

[ClarkW]

anyone uses Tapatalk? I just upgraded it. Don't know if it works now or no.

I just accessed this thread fine. I've never been able to figure out how to comment or add charts using Tapatalk, Richarab does that I believe

[ClarkW]

I HAVE FOCUS ISSUES

I find charts and comments on future action based on blah blah blah....only I don't follow through because I'm sidetracked. And OF COURSE they were profitable trades while I followed other things...

$NATGAS tested the neckline and is moving up BUT ChiOsc is very high AND it could be at top of blueish green channel. Also negative divergence on RSI and MACD

[xfradnex]

I HAVE FOCUS ISSUES

I find charts and comments on future action based on blah blah blah....only I don't follow through because I'm sidetracked. And OF COURSE they were profitable trades while I followed other things...

$NATGAS tested the neckline and is moving up BUT ChiOsc is very high AND it could be at top of blueish green channel. Also negative divergence on RSI and MACD

More insight: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... ice-spikes. Gas is complicated. There were only 3 readings of UNG CCI ( 666,335, and 234) larger than Friday's 225 during the past year. Most of the time, gains were made the day after a peak reading. Looks like UGAZ has a breakout. Sometimes there is a pullback after breakout (then resume).

[joe-gamma]

For the bulls: check out schaeffersresearch.com and read the Monday Morning Outlook: "Stop Trying to Outsmart the Market" by Ryan Detrick. He suggests that sentiment levels and accumulation of short positons are bullish. Good research, good read

For the bears: resistance at 1370 is strong, weekly summation shows it too, check out the chart:

4.png

Great Read thismorning, thanks !

[sloth]

no charts, just thoughts: Too much riding on the election to allow any significant drop in the stock market. A big move down here would do too much damage to the "recovery" and would cause corporations to stop hiring which the reserve will not allow because of the dual mandate. Shorting 1390-1425 seems obvious and would make it a crowded trade which makes me think the market will grind higher to the 1450 area by October after sucking in as many shorts as it can.

[BBFinance]

For the bulls: check out schaeffersresearch.com and read the Monday Morning Outlook: "Stop Trying to Outsmart the Market" by Ryan Detrick. He suggests that sentiment levels and accumulation of short positons are bullish. Good research, good read

For the bears: resistance at 1370 is strong, weekly summation shows it too, check out the chart:

4.png

Smart and intelligent investors / traders do not read schaeffersresearch.com and take action based on that.
It is just a marketing outfit like CNBC or Cramer.
let us not approach the market with own bias and find justification in internet.
No body knows what the market will do tomorrow but using AII sentiment is simply outdated.

[xfradnex]

I ran an odds calc of the S&P over 50 years. Using the exact combination of last 6 volume changes (up,down) and the last 3 days of price (up, down). 68 matching days were found. 40 of those days were up the next day. So there is 58.8% odds of a up day Monday based upon this history. Probably not enough samples to be significant.

Xfrad: thanks for those statistics !
like to crunch #s? take a look at the size of the downmove in Trans, when I glanced at that, my eyes (which often deceive me) seemed to see tendency for followthrough on downside next day, and often left a tail in the candle following day....I do not have the data or software but it may have some substance...

would be something like: show next day o,h,l,c and change when:
Trans net change is -1.5% or more negative,
Trans open is equal or greater than close 2 days and 3 days ago (so its not in downtrend)

and whatever else you feel is important like >200day ma, less than highest high of past 6 months blah blah...

Good luck.
thanks, Joe

I tried again. no luck. I would have to write a program to extract all the data I needed or I could do a one time pull in of all the data, which would take to much time.