08/31/2012 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevent ... 20831a.htm The text.

THANK YOU

[Cobra]

strong coming back, amazing. wait.

[SB73]

strong coming back, amazing. wait.

take a look at the precious metals move...wow

[Al_Dente]

Ben
“…substantial further expansions of the balance sheet could reduce public confidence in the Fed's ability to exit smoothly from its accommodative policies at the appropriate time. Even if unjustified, such a reduction in confidence might increase the risk of a costly unanchoring of inflation expectations, leading in turn to financial and economic instability....”

ben buy shite.png (89.67 KiB) Viewed 4174 times

[TraderGirl]

we need uempels turn times...

[HuyVanLang]

Thanks Cobra, I'm glad I closed my short yesterday. For me today is a gambling day so I'm no match to them. I'm going fishing now. Good luck everyone!

[Unique]

First impulse, second reaction, third real. Key to success on Fed days. 10AM

We're on yesterday's close line, we should bounce/stall a bit, then we get the real direction

We're on the 3rd phase, this looks like a range bounded boring consolidation day. Monday is holiday. Yawn

[Tutti]

Ladies & gentlemen enjoy your long weekend. My stops are set and I'm pool bound.

Cobra thank you for hard work.

Tutti.

[Al_Dente]

one minute
good luck

[Mr. BachNut]

Ho hum. Just another day range trading between Wednesday's high and yesterday's low.

Correction to comment made earlier: Futures market open until normal time.
So, we may get to see who has confidence to hold over the weekend, longs or shorts.

[EvilTrader]

Talking the big picture, its a dangerous short here. (Arent all shorts dangerous ? )

Mr. Bernanke is all about money printing, even when he does not do it right away.

Bond buyers know they are doomed over the longterm.

[Harapa]

The currency pairs have been losing correlation with SPX
Eyeball analysis only: it looks like bear spy when this happens in unison (?)
Smarter comments welcomed please

831currency.png

Not for INTRADAY, ONLY for Swing Trades

Currency markets have done an amazing job of predicting the US equity market moves in the last 5 years (and possibly since 2000). Buying and selling based on hourly momentum in AUD/JPY would have fetched you >400% (vs 1% B&H) since March 2007 (in SPY). Combining this with other pairs on my momentum list would have positioned you on the right side of almost all moves since march 2007 (67% win rate, Pain factor = -6.7% draw down of 5 consecutive trades). I am surprised by the results but data is data.

Here are detailed STATs for AUD/JPY pair since may 2007
Long/ Short/ L+S
Total Trades 167/ 167/ 334
Winning Trades 116/ 98/ 214
Losing Trades 71/ 71/ 142
Win percent 69%/ 59%/ 64%
RTN Cumulative 499%/ 432%
B&H 0.83%
2012 YTD 14% vs 12% b&H
Last trade: Short on 8/22, 0.6% gain

So a strategy built around currency markets can be very profitable.

[ClarkW]

The currency pairs have been losing correlation with SPX
Eyeball analysis only: it looks like bear spy when this happens in unison (?)
Smarter comments welcomed please

831currency.png

Not for INTRADAY, ONLY for Swing Trades

Currency markets have done an amazing job of predicting the US equity market moves in the last 5 years (and possibly since 2000). Buying and selling based on hourly momentum in AUD/JPY would have fetched you >400% (vs 1% B&H) since March 2007 (in SPY). Combining this with other pairs on my momentum list would have positioned you on the right side of almost all moves since march 2007 (67% win rate, Pain factor = -6.7% draw down of 5 consecutive trades). I am perplexed by the results but data is data.

Here are detailed STATs for AUD/JPY pair since may 2007
Long/ Short/ L+S
Total Trades 167/ 167/ 334
Winning Trades 116/ 98/ 214
Losing Trades 71/ 71/ 142
Win percent 69%/ 59%/ 64%
RTN Cumulative 499%/ 432%
B&H 0.83%
2012 YTD 14% vs 12% b&H

So a strategy built around currency markets can be very profitable.

AUD/JPY pointing to lower market currently, right? (longer term = days). I don't daytrade myself

[TraderGirl]

/DX Dollar...fell through support, looks like it's heading to $80ish.. next trendline support...

[Cobra]

now the market calms down. I see a small triangle here, so the bias is a up.

[jdow]

Whoah!! I just woke up and saw the price action....I didn't believe my chart that showed this kind of price action, but here it is, just like my chart shows...if my chart continues to be correct, we continue to move up, then another spike down (possibly lower, don't know the levels), then a choppy move up the rest of the day...

Dont know if you follow IWM, check out the 5 min on that one... $1.2 (1.5%) sell off from opening hi. I missed that short. Now its rewcovered .80%.. (.65)

[Harapa]

AUD/JPY pointing to lower market currently, right? (longer term = days). I don't daytrade myself

Last Trade: Short on 8/22 @ 141.41
Holding period can be few hours to several days. Analysis is done on hourly candles.

[TraderGirl]

If this pattern continues, we could see a very choppy move up for NUGT...wait for pullback to channel support..??

[KENA]

The algorithm crossed below the blue line and with today will turn up..Now the mkt (NYA)may have a short term up trend for a couple of days or so..This is no place to short the indexes..Short some stocks yes if they have good pull backs off hi's.

Chart by stocktiming

GT.

[Mr. BachNut]

While the trend in AUD JPY is now down (bearish equities), it is a bit oversold and could bounce near term.
It would be consistent with a test of equity highs.
See RSI in chart as well as sketchy parallel channel line from prior low.
Not a prediction...just a possibility to be aware of.