10/06/2012 Weekend Update

[joe-gamma]

studies for reversion intraday? something like a PPO (1,21,1) on one:vix trade may have given an early warning to exit longs on Friday am and also on sept 14, sept 25th etc.....not sure which period would give good signals without whipsaw and without leaving too much profit into the swing trade..

Joe do u have a chart of this? what time frame 5 min? 15min? etc
thx

sorry no intraday data for freeloader like me....here is the daily....

the PPO with parameters 1,X,1) shows how far away price tends to get from X moving avg (idea from Joanne K)

might just be massaging indicator TOO much to fit THE DATA and over- complicating BBs great simple 1min indicator while trying to squeeze every last tick in the trade.....

bb1min1006vix.JPG (19.83 KiB) Viewed 4418 times

[uempel]

The ambiguity of the TA pattern shows up in long term weekly chart. SPX had a sell signal 2 weeks ago (check dotted vertical), but black trendline and the Fed offered strong support and index was able to gain ground last week.

Problem is the blue resistance overhead, it's an ellipse going back 15 years. What's going to fail first, black support or blue ellipse resistance

As to trading : there are three datapoints which I consider foolproof (be careful, don't believe anything your read here ) and will help me trade tomorrow Monday: resistance is high up at 1480ish, support is down at 1452. And I've got a good time signal on the 60 min: 2:00 p.m., which can either be a reversal or an acceleration of the initial move. Enjoy

Weeky long term (close up)

60 min with my favorite scenario for Monday

[Cobra]

The ambiguity of the TA pattern shows up in long term weekly chart. SPX had a sell signal 2 weeks ago (check dotted vertical), but black trendline and the Fed offered strong support and index was able to gain ground last week.

Problem is the blue resistance overhead, it's an ellipse going back 15 years. What's going to fail first, black support or blue ellipse resistance

As to trading : there are three datapoints which I consider foolproof (be careful, don't believe anything your read here ) and will help me trade tomorrow Monday: resistance is high up at 1480ish, support is down at 1452. And I've got a good time signal on the 60 min: 2:00 p.m., which can either be a reversal or an acceleration of the initial move. Enjoy

Weeky long term (close up)

Closeupweeklylong term.png

60 min with my favorite scenario for Monday

60min.png

Good, I like 60 min chart, perfectly fits my evil plan.

[BullBear52x]

sorry no intraday data for freeloader like me....here is the daily....

dayspyvixppo1006.png

the PPO with parameters 1,X,1) shows how far away price tends to get from X moving avg (idea from Joanne K)

might just be massaging indicator TOO much to fit THE DATA and over- complicating BBs great simple 1min indicator while trying to squeeze every last tick in the trade.....

bb1min1006vix.JPG

I don't see PPO having any advantage over simple MACD or Bollinger band (BB), because the range of PPO can be any where from +/-2 to 5 for some period but not the others.(not consistence for good system) the simple BB 20,2 on 5 min. is far more powerful just to daytrade alone. add to that SPY:VIX will give the extreme range, where $TRIN will confirm the trend, A/D will secure the trend.

[uempel]

Cobra, the overall picture doesn't look great unless the market breaks higher. At the moment weekly blue ellipse looks strong, strong enough to contain the market. I doubt the bulls can drum up all their kin and break the 1470/85 threshold. If I put aside my bullish bias I don't like this chart. Market needs a new bullish impulse in order to jump resistance - QE3 and iPhone 5 have withered away, is China GDP growth back above 10% in the cards

[BullBear52x]

Cobra, the overall picture doesn't look great unless the market breaks higher. At the moment weekly blue ellipse looks strong, strong enough to contain the market. I doubt the bulls can drum up all their kin and break the 1470/85 threshold. If I put aside my bullish bias I don't like this chart. Market needs a new bullish impulse in order to jump resistance - QE3 and iPhone 5 have withered away, is China GDP growth back above 10% in the cards

The attachment WeeklyBear.png is no longer available

uempel, great chart as always, here is my fun on the Curve. this is projection with Monday down only rooky version just for fun.

[Al_Dente]

I really wanted to see the percent-of-stocks-above-their-50ma a bit stronger here, like in other bull runs (see gold behind price panel).
Bulls hope this will strengthen very soon, otherwise bears will want to strut.

It’s Sunday, vote for cobra again: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

And vote for my new girlfriend: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjXBQqIE ... ure=relmfu

[KeiZai]

Crude oil (bullish railroad tracks on daily ?)

USD/CAD (related to oil)

out of channel retraced to 50fib from decline, next price movement will be crucial for direction (bearish UC = bullish oil and vice versa)

Watching INTC, bounce may be close

With indexes I am undecided, I need to see more charts just got back home but what I saw so far I think I have a little little bullish bias

Thanks for charts and see you later

[Al_Dente]

Gold possible sell on Friday close below 1760 (NTA)

very nice charts thanks
respectfully request u post updates as often as u can

[Al_Dente]

Cobra, the overall picture doesn't look great unless the market breaks higher. At the moment weekly blue ellipse looks strong, strong enough to contain the market. I doubt the bulls can drum up all their kin and break the 1470/85 threshold. If I put aside my bullish bias I don't like this chart. Market needs a new bullish impulse in order to jump resistance - QE3 and iPhone 5 have withered away, is China GDP growth back above 10% in the cards

WeeklyBear.png

UEMPEL
Thanks
U had a brilliant chart last year from CS showing the classic “Top Zone” with all its bounces and shoulders and tests and retests etc.
Did u save it ?????

[joe-gamma]

I really wanted to see the percent-of-stocks-above-their-50ma a bit stronger here, like in other bull runs (see gold behind price panel).
Bulls hope this will strengthen very soon, otherwise bears will want to strut.

107wkndspxa50r.png

Like Cobra said:either just beginning or much weaker uptick

It’s Sunday, vote for cobra again: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

And vote for my new girlfriend: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjXBQqIE ... ure=relmfu

OOlala, almost inspires meto do housecleaning!

[uempel]

I really wanted to see the percent-of-stocks-above-their-50ma a bit stronger here, like in other bull runs (see gold behind price panel).
Bulls hope this will strengthen very soon, otherwise bears will want to strut.

107wkndspxa50r.png

It’s Sunday, vote for cobra again: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

And vote for my new girlfriend: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjXBQqIE ... ure=relmfu

Al_Dente, I agree to all you say:

1.) Bulls have to break resistance quite soon - otherwise game is over
2.) I like the looks of your new girlfriend. But I'm not sure you'll be around this forum much longer, which makes me feel sad . You'll be hanging around in that bar and she'll be distracting you - no time for Cobra's bar

[Al_Dente]

Crude oil (bullish railroad tracks on daily ?)...USD/CAD (related to oil)...out of channel retraced to 50fib from decline, next price movement will be crucial for direction (bearish UC = bullish oil and vice versa)...Watching INTC, bounce may be close...With indexes I am undecided, I need to see more charts just got back home but what I saw so far I think I have a little little bullish bias ...

Thanks Keizai, great charts as usual
But that is one goofy avatar
I found an avatar that might be more appropriate 4 u
http://screencast.com/t/YILjzBDUgUbc

[uempel]

Cobra, the overall picture doesn't look great unless the market breaks higher. At the moment weekly blue ellipse looks strong, strong enough to contain the market. I doubt the bulls can drum up all their kin and break the 1470/85 threshold. If I put aside my bullish bias I don't like this chart. Market needs a new bullish impulse in order to jump resistance - QE3 and iPhone 5 have withered away, is China GDP growth back above 10% in the cards

The attachment WeeklyBear.png is no longer available

UEMPEL
Thanks
U had a brilliant chart last year from CS showing the classic “Top Zone” with all its bounces and shoulders and tests and retests etc.
Did u save it ?????

Al_Dente, I've still got most charts, but they are hidden away. I don't know which one you mean so I can't search...

Let's look at it without that specific chart. The question is: was 1475 an intermediate top, or is it the real thing. Check out this BPNYA chart - most of the tops are blue, they don't have "one single tip". Only the orange tops have a single tip, but the orange species is far less frequent...

[uempel]

Bye guys - it's Sunday, I need a few hours off

[BullBear52x]

last chart from me here, lets look into what trend followers and counter trend guy were thinking if he were to look at 1 hour chart.

The counter trend will say "show me the money I am in good spot, I see the support and all of that mid BB goodies"
The trend follower will say "It never fail to hold, have you look at job report lately? we are booming again"

Have a good one everybody.

[Al_Dente]

NEW TOYS ALERT ...from stockcharts.com newsletter out today
“…a new feature for all StockCharts.com users - our new Performance Chart Workbench. It makes it very easy to create, annotate and save performance charts based on our SharpCharts charting engine. In addition to being much easier to use, these PerfCharts also have the "baseline" feature that our regular SharpCharts Performance charts do not have… One of the key things this new workbench allows is the ability to create, annotate and save a Performance Chart that compares the year-to-date performance of the major markets. Here's an example:

http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX ... 1890123265

As usual I don’t understand stuff like how to get this: “…new percent measuring annotation…”
Anyone?

[joe-gamma]

NEW TOYS ALERT ... Here's an example:

http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX ... 1890123265

As usual I don’t understand stuff like how to get this: “…new percent measuring annotation…”
Anyone?

Thanks for the update, here's a link to another lady,"after retirement"....have a great weekend!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHg8cWQmFCs&feature=plcp

[joe-gamma]

NEW TOYS ALERT ...from stockcharts.com newsletter out today
“…a new feature for all StockCharts.com users - our new Performance Chart Workbench. It makes it very easy to create, annotate and save performance charts based on our SharpCharts charting engine. In addition to being much easier to use, these PerfCharts also have the "baseline" feature that our regular SharpCharts Performance charts do not have… One of the key things this new workbench allows is the ability to create, annotate and save a Performance Chart that compares the year-to-date performance of the major markets. Here's an example:

http://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX ... 1890123265

As usual I don’t understand stuff like how to get this: “…new percent measuring annotation…”
Anyone?

hmmm, past 6 months and 1 year iwm winning race, but lagging SPX YTD, in 2yr and 3yr its COMPs

[ClarkW]

Good chart from Kimble on GOLD and SILVER. Notice the bullish sentiment for silver. http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/