03/23/2013 Weekend Update

[BullBear52x]

Paging BB:

Whats your take on EEM here, momentum accelerating to the downside bur price kind of made a double bottom here, do you think we can go long here if OCT '12 highs hold at 42.10 or above ?

Timeframe : Mid to longterm

Long term break down is clear.

mid to long term entry set up is sell the rip, at best it will bounce to sell the rip zone at 42.5ish, for buy I would like to see histogram to turn positive first before consult short term swing set up for buy entry.

[BullBear52x]

Gap resistance for GLD and SLV

nice, thanks

GLD bulls is not over, no sell trigger on short term swing set up that I can see. so, a new high will keep it going until new sell trigger on this time frame.WDIK

[KeiZai]

Big move coming in Silver?



/quote]

BB your take on bucky?

I see potential monthly topping tail at double MM and triangle line res and good wedgie long setup in euro together with overcrowded dollar bulls possible ST/ MT top?

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Bucky is tricky pony, it's overbought short term but not out see support line on UUP here, on long term CCI 144 is nothing say bearish but over bought. short term swing still maintain its HH a trade under 22.37 will really show a weak hand.

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Thanks a lot BB so tomorrow we will know...I wonder if default in Cyprus is good for euro or bad in this market u never know

[BullBear52x]

Big move coming in Silver?

Thanks a lot BB so tomorrow we will know...I wonder if default in Cyprus is good for euro or bad in this market u never know

Cyprus will be forgive and forget just like Greek.

[KeiZai]

Thanks a lot BB so tomorrow we will know...I wonder if default in Cyprus is good for euro or bad in this market u never know

[/quote][/quote][/quote]
Cyprus will be forgive and forget just like Greek. [/quote]

haha yeah within half an hour


INSTALLING CYPRUS BAILOUT..... ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 45% DONE. Installation failed. 544 error: Cyprus accepts Russian Rubles only.

[BullBear52x]

Thanks a lot BB so tomorrow we will know...I wonder if default in Cyprus is good for euro or bad in this market u never know

[/quote][/quote]
Cyprus will be forgive and forget just like Greek. [/quote]

haha yeah within half an hour


INSTALLING CYPRUS BAILOUT..... ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░ 45% DONE. Installation failed. 544 error: Cyprus accepts Russian Rubles only.[/quote]
well put ++++1

[Al_Dente]

Hola Panda
Thx for charts; GL2u this week homey

[KeiZai]

Hola Panda
Thx for charts; GL2u this week homey

panda or no panda.png

Hahahaa thanks for that boss I laughed so hard

[TumblingDice]

A pretty reliable intermediate term indicator is the NYMO simple moving average crossover. Over the past three yeas the 50 has crossed the 200 about 10 times, if you don't count the time it crossed over for only a few days or less.When it crosses down there's about 80% success rate of calling some sort of top or another and when it crosses up the signal called for a the trend to be up correctly every time for the past three years.

I was going to backtest this for longer time frames but it seems to be fairly accurate and ThinkOrSwim isn't working ATM. This crossover is quite similar to the one that occurred the last few times... the only way it can cross back up is if we have buying here with good breadth and volume. This would signal that the uptrend is still intact... so any short positions (such as mine) should reverse on a breach back up. Otherwise breadth leads the market and if the 50 keeps trending down then it will be difficult for the market to remain elevated.

Interesting. Looks like it is better at predicting tops. Just what we need! Thanks.

It seems to work for both tops and bottoms, but at the moment it is nothing but one more piece of evidence that the market has the capacity to form a top here. Unfortunately it can have the capacity to form one for a long time, but decide not to.

[TumblingDice]

This is a very long term channel that I originally drew mid 2012. Looks like the last two times we hit the 76% marker we pulled back to the 38%. If it doesn't pull back from here the target would be the top line, if it does, then the 38% line again serve as a target.



Here's a closeup of the action for the last 90 days. The market has been comfortably rising while keeping to the top half of the channel for most of this rally. The first time it went to the bottom half of the channel it stayed there about 11 days. The second time in February it stayed there for two weeks and now it has been a week. Now it is pegged right at the midpoint of the channel having spent the past week below the midpoint of the channel. It would be a very mild and bullish correction if it just lasts for a week and doesn't touch the bottom line.

Breaking back above the halfway point convincingly would signal that the correction is over, like it did the past few times. This all matches up with support and resistance levels so the road map is pretty clear. Chances are, the direction that the market picks from here will last for another few weeks.

[Cobra]

Cyprus problem solved? ES huge up now.

[TraderGirl]

This move down in the dollar (UUP) as expected....forming abc down off of an impulsive wave A up....

If any of you don't understand EW, then an impulsive wave (5 wave structure) is normally followed by another wave in the same direction...

So since UUP had 5 waves up...that would normally be considered wave "A", then we get a "B" pullback as we are getting now...then we get another wave up for "C" in the least...

So say sayonara to PM's...in the near term once wave (B) is complete...

[TraderGirl]

Cyprus problem solved? ES huge up now.

Cobra, what is the seasonality for April 1?

[Cobra]

Cyprus problem solved? ES huge up now.

Cobra, what is the seasonality for April 1?

Dow up 15 of last 18.

[Al_Dente]

Eurogroup Press Conference - Live Webcast
NOW
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-2 ... ve-webcast

[Al_Dente]

press conference just ended
but they’ve added the “Full Eurogroup Statement” just below
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-2 ... ve-webcast

[stlwater]

This move down in the dollar (UUP) as expected....forming abc down off of an impulsive wave A up....

If any of you don't understand EW, then an impulsive wave (5 wave structure) is normally followed by another wave in the same direction...

So since UUP had 5 waves up...that would normally be considered wave "A", then we get a "B" pullback as we are getting now...then we get another wave up for "C" in the least...

So say sayonara to PM's...in the near term once wave (B) is complete...

Are you figuring on the 200DMA or thereabouts then as the final low?

[Al_Dente]

That Eurogroup press conference is being re-broadcast NOW
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-2 ... ve-webcast

[Al_Dente]

10:53 pm ET
“Last-minute Cyprus deal to close bank, force losses”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/ ... 3I20130325

[TraderGirl]

This move down in the dollar (UUP) as expected....forming abc down off of an impulsive wave A up....

If any of you don't understand EW, then an impulsive wave (5 wave structure) is normally followed by another wave in the same direction...

So since UUP had 5 waves up...that would normally be considered wave "A", then we get a "B" pullback as we are getting now...then we get another wave up for "C" in the least...

So say sayonara to PM's...in the near term once wave (B) is complete...

Are you figuring on the 200DMA or thereabouts then as the final low?

It's hard to gauge what price will do ahead of time...but that is about where the (B) wave "could" end if this is the correct labeling...