Cobra's Market View

jarbo456 wrote:Late notice, but CHK broke out on Friday morning. Has been a great swing trade since the break above 22.50-23 price.

Agree. I took a position on 7/25 and took profits on 50% this morning.. could be hitting resistance (rising wedge). I hope to add it back on a pull back to the 10DMA/20DMA.

Corn is doing well, big move starting last night. I took profits on 50% at the 50DMA. The Corn projections were good which fueled a lot of selling early in the summer but it was planted very late and there has been very little water. Many fields remain unplanted and there are rumors of ending the ethanol mandate. Reports are that the early projections are at risk and that those early numbers are potential. Potential is a long way from in the bin. Potential is put at risk by weather and how soon the frost comes as well as the panting time (they got a very late start). So I see the trade moving higher from here into September to equalize the risk vs projections. The crop could still be good but ProFarmer isn't going to risk their reputation on it so the market is looking to hedge on prices, and will likely continue to, should the lack of rain continue. I'm hanging on for a gap fill. I've had to redraw my channel as price has broken out firmly.

I think CPN could pull back to the 18.91 area before attempting to break above the 200DMA.

L_T wrote: Just sent you a PM with a long summary.

please post it here boss thanks

Al_Dente wrote:

L_T wrote: Just sent you a PM with a long summary.

please post it here boss thanks

You watching adv/dec ? Could get interesting.

L_T wrote:Paging Bull Bear: do you have one of your RSI signals yet? Expecting you to say time to go evil soon.

now intraday start to crack, for conservative move wait a little more

double top text book target.

Al_Dente wrote:

L_T wrote: Just sent you a PM with a long summary.

please post it here boss thanks

I think I got this from someone here:

Notes on Al Brooks' Price Action Trading

Al Brooks' style of trading is based on price action only. He does not look at any technical indicators, only candle sticks, trend lines, and moving averages. He trades mainly S&P futures, but I am trying to apply the techniques to stock equities (SPY).

Chart Setting

 5 minute chart with 20 EMA. The point is to be simple and nimble. Too much information will simply paralyze you from making quick trading decisions.

Terminology

 H1, H2 Signals: The first and second occurrences where the high of the current bar is greater than the preceding bar during a given pull back of an up trend.
 L1, L2 Signals: The first and second occurrences where the low of the current bar is lower than the preceding bar during a given pull back of a down trend.
 Signal Bar: The bar preceding the H1, H2, ... or L1, L2, ... triggers.
 Entry Bar: The bar after the signal bar.
 Range Bar: A doji or near doji.
 Trend Bar: A large white body candle is a bull trend bar; a red/black one is a bear trend bar.

Entries

 H1 long or L1 short with-trend entries. These work well on a strong trend.
 H2 long or L2 long entries near the 20 EMA. These work well based on the observation that a prevailing trend normally uses a 2 legged pull back before resuming the trend.
 Parallel channel over-shoot and failure. Stay-in-the-channel, don't chase.
 Reversal counter-trend entries only after trend line break AND a retest of the low (long entry) or the high (short entry). Look especially for 3 pushes for better reliable trade.

Exits

 For scalping SPY: Exit 1/3 after the first .10, another 1/3 after .20, and let the remaining 1/3 run.
 Stop exits: Initially 1 tick "beyond" the signal bar; after the entry bar transpires, move the stop to 1 tick "beyond" the entry bar; after taking the first target profit, move the stop to break-even.

Miscellaneous Notes

 Do not look for perfect patterns. Resembling one is good enough.
 Don't over-trade. Be selective. 3-4 trades per day is enough. If you're consistently profitable, simply increase the shares.
 Most of reversals fail, so make with-trend trades.
 Beginners tend to make reversal trades, so areas where they'd be stopped out would be good entries.
 Market usually makes 2 attempts to do something; if failure, it would do the opposite.
 Bail out if the signal bar is weak. E.g. a doji range bar or a bull trend bar on a L1/L2.
 Reversal long entries - if lower low then expect 2 legged up; if higher low, then perhaps only 1 legged up. (Reverse for reversal short entries.)
 Non-trending days: if long tails and overlapping bars during the 1st hour, then try fading at extremes. There tends to be 2 trading ranges.
 Trending days: may want to have a swing trade rather than just a scalp.
 Spike and channel trend day: a gap can be a spike; the channel would be in the direction of a spike.
 Scalping requires higher percentage of winning trades. Swing trades require less winning percentage.
 Only use 1 minute or 3 minute charts for with-trend trades, never counter trend trades.

BullBear52x wrote:

L_T wrote:Paging Bull Bear: do you have one of your RSI signals yet? Expecting you to say time to go evil soon.

now intraday start to crack, for conservative move wait a little more

What have you got for 5 minute? You mind sharing the RSI settings you use? I can just replicate it myself. Thanks!

Here is my Bear scenario that I posted for intraday aggressive.

Out of Bounds wrote: You watching adv/dec ? Could get interesting.

internals
5min

Hourly. Losing volatility and momentum. On balance volume leads price. Good for a couple hours only.

possible minor H&S on SPX 5m... should we form a weak bounce RS here

fehro wrote:possible minor H&S on SPX 5m... should we form a weak bounce RS here

bears need to see failed bounce not just weak.

Unlike SPY the smallies IWM not making lower lows (intraday):

L_T wrote:Unlike SPY the smallies IWM not making lower lows (intraday):

IWM intraday start to crack also.

L_T wrote:Unlike SPY the smallies IWM not making lower lows (intraday):

and now the smalls are leading on the way back up (also rut leads rui too) , need to see xlf and banksters start leading spy too, then we might expect new highs (to sell L/T)

I covered the short -22 pts ... will go now .. see ya tomorrow

Weak links: dia, xlf
Strong links: xiv, iwm, qqq (but double top resistance qqq)

transports...possible H&S if it breaks support...

BullBear52x wrote:

fehro wrote:possible minor H&S on SPX 5m... should we form a weak bounce RS here

bears need to see failed bounce not just weak.

Well if we make lower lows.. then this 3 day bounce would constitute a failure.

GDX daily
May need to back-test the breakout line or the neckline
My measured-move target for the inverted H&S is still about 38 GDX, if it could just bust through that resistance…