10/10/2013 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

Mid to long term = sell the rip

and rip we are, >70% of stock I follow are in the sell zone. "sell until it fails" time to shop for this time frame.

Intraday = buy the dip


Chart of the day goes to JPM, one of few clean buy signal, and you know these guys know a thing or two in the market.

[wayne0708]

Bears have not made any meaningful damage on intraday 20ema. well even so, will be a buy for bulls

[stlwater]

Guys and girls with balls of steel can go short here at SPX 1685, but it's like playing Russian Roulette with bullets in three chambers. In earnest: most likely this is today's top, but I don't have the guts to go against the trend ...

11.png

That's ok, I did for you. Re-added some volatility I sold yesterday.

[Al_Dente]

Spy components
Relative strength, hourly, with a 25ma smoothing envelope
FWIW

[KENA]

Great dome forming on Spy 1 min and 2 min and can see it on 5 min but it is to small scale..Lets see if it goes.

[MrMiyagi]

Mr Miyagi are these P-bars are they still open?

Those were too long ago, they were not hit and fell off the radar.

[uempel]

Spy components
Relative strength, hourly, with a 25ma smoothing envelope
FWIW

1010rel str.png

Great charts Al

[uempel]

Guys and girls with balls of steel can go short here at SPX 1685, but it's like playing Russian Roulette with bullets in three chambers. In earnest: most likely this is today's top, but I don't have the guts to go against the trend ...

11.png

That's ok, I did for you. Re-added some volatility I sold yesterday.

Thanks so much

[BullBear52x]

Fib combo

[Al_Dente]

Spy components
Relative strength, hourly, with a 25ma smoothing envelope
FWIW

1010rel str.png

Great charts Al

thx boss
YOURS TOO

[Mr. BachNut]

Guys and girls with balls of steel can go short here at SPX 1685, but it's like playing Russian Roulette with bullets in three chambers. In earnest: most likely this is today's top, but I don't have the guts to go against the trend ...

11.png

That's ok, I did for you. Re-added some volatility I sold yesterday.

Covered my VIX short around noontime.
Historically, occasions that have had bigger drops (in percentage terms) this close to expiration have generally come from higher starting points (like VIX>25).
So, if there is some further VIX downside from here, odds are it should probably be limited.

[Cobra]

possible double bottom. the bias is up. hopefully it could be C&H eventually.

[TWT]

$SPX: A fiver is more bullish than 7-wave up leg

[BullBear52x]

swing sell the rip will trigger below 168.18

[Cobra]

I'm a little disappointed. here's the double top target. not sure.

[seemore]

Looks like neckline may have rejected the bulls, so bias appears bearish now, fyi. GDX/Nugt.

[daytradingES]

Once again I'm wrong way Charlie,
short from 72.50
I'm trying to estimate the next low, to close (and then maybe reshort but I think not)

In any case I'm thinking 75.75

anyone have thoughts on a possible upcoming low?

(above is ES)

[Cobra]

hope it's bull flag. nowadays a strong up day always is a boring day. up in the morning then consolidates whole day, I just wish today could be as usual, up in the last hour!

[taggard]

[quote="Mr. BachNut"]While it may be a little overdone on the psycho-babble, I found this to be an interesting article exploring the nature of intuitive trading:

amazing i just checked in for 30 seconds and saw this post--best i can do below.

(just opinions here) nothing wrong with the piece but does not go very far). the really hard part to accept is that we are all "intuitive traders" we just "justify" "rationalize" or "explain" it in different ways. So we all have more or less the same brains and bodies--there is never a real or actual separation between "rational" and "intuitive". the issue is not the process but how we justify or experience what we are doing. this is why aesthetics (what you think is the nature of beauty and truth) and epistemology (understanding what knowledge is to you and how you get it) are the key issues

There is a recursive feed back loop (or on a good day a spiral with some change)--so that aesthetics at any point in time determines epistemology--and the inverse. But the underlying brain is functioning at the same time. this gets you to mind. so people sometimes miss-perceive brain as mind--which is where the trouble started with the absurd idea that "reason and intuition" were somehow different discrete entities. from there they assign different qualities and so on and wind up saying they themselves are this or that.

So we explain "emotional or intuitive actions" in rational ways--and amusingly often get very emotional or intuitive when justifying "rational" actions (eg arguments and touts on this board).

this idea that childhood or past is the issue in how we approach aesthetics and epistemology (so what the mind says is our style or approach to life) is self evident but tedious and is often the slow way to optimize mind and or trading. the problem with the approach is that discussing the problems simply reenforces ego and the problems as problems. it also takes forever and is boring. short term bypassing this is faster. and it doesn't ignore the issues of early life--it allows one to approach them from a position of strength--rather than fight with them from a position of disadvantage. finally when one does look back from a position of strength--the problems seem fairly minor and either amusing or slightly sad--but they are very small and unimportant and that is the key. (if all you got to live for is what you left behind--get your self a power charge and seal that sliver mine (see how you can read mine either way)

so summing up all this--we chose a style and justify it--using mind--but we actually have brains. and we can allow evolving aesthetics and epistemology to play out over time. (if all you got to live for is what you left behind--get your self a power charge and seal that sliver mine (see how you can read mine either way--and silver being the illusion of value we attach to the pit we can get stuck in)

in a practical sense those starting out 90-99% of the time need to learn what some call rules but i see as guidelines or "working framework". Lets use cobra's pretty consistent 5 min posts as those ideas for this example. what cobra is doing is putting a photo (so single image) printed from a movie (so the ever changing market) and then making a statement that is in the abstract or predictive (so measured moves). the approach is very streamlined--and thus easy to grasp and use. however the most interesting part of the posts is the feeling part. "so this trend is strong or weak etc". there you are sort of bridging the gap--between being at arms length (rational) and being in the mix (so intuitive). further this suggests courses of action (such as slo trend slow in--fast trend fast in) to the individual trader.

those beginning need to get the basic ideas down (1) trend direction. (2) where we are in the trend etc so guidelines. but not stop there--the system can be just second nature fairly quickly--depending upon how the student focuses on it.

after this point there is no reason to "think" or "reason" out the moves--it is second nature. at that point one can get intuitive on the idea with relative safety. so reason and intuition work together and you can see turns before measured moves or after them or in multiple time frames linked to each other and so on. you can find yourself rolling on the floor laughing. further you are using all this-- on yourself--should i be trading today--why do i see this this way etc. this part is key since trading has only the most tenuous link to chart reading. as can be seen from most returns. chart reading is child's play. Trading esp in any size (so whatever you see as a large part of your working capital) is totally different. self-awarness is 90% the screens are 10% not the inverse. mostly what is often referred to as "intuitive" is just "self awarness".

so beginners should (say 90-99% of the time) start with some sort of guild lines rules models--but likewise should discard them as they would training wheels on a bike. when getting crazy off road--there is no time to think out the decent or assent--you commit and the entire thing becomes flow and how to best align oneself with it. the training wheels morph from assets and safety into liabilities and danger. it's like reading a text book on sex and having sex. or thinking about ice cream and eating ice cream. reading about sex is quite useful for a time--but will bore girls it it becomes a unchanging model.

again reason and intuition come from the same brain. they are not different they just look that way to mind etc. you use reason to modify intuition and intuition to modify reason. both have links to the past--but i seriously think that is not the place to start.

the real issue is to see clearly what you are doing now. and why. if one thinks a model or stats are the way--that is fine. But it's only a belief and name for what you are doing. it's a way to place mental events in a context. but your choice is not rational. it's what feels right to you at this time in your life. if you are like trader girl and using astrology and so on--then this is the same from the other direction.

and sadly the way forward is usually what mr green encounters in revolver--to do exactly what he doesn't want to--or thinks is less optimal unimportant stupid or what have you. so in closing--to progress into a more balanced view of ourselves or trading--the idea is to become comfortable with the idea--that what we don't feel comfortable with is the solution. we can either grind around in the past or we could use the future as an attractor but neither are the actual act being discussed. (so somebody messed with me as a kid--or dude 3 gals with poor judgement in a sports car is the same ). we need to find a way to dissolve the idea of separation that limits our use of our brains (and bodies see gut brain stuff/soros back pain). the solution here should feel as good as it can--as well as make sense--because that is how we make the next jump in trading. (not chart reading).

sorry it long and if this sounds like pontification. my points are very simple--it's just hard to put into words. back to some stuff outside the market and good luck to all

[MrMiyagi]

!!!!! POWER HOUR !!!!!