Cobra's Market View

Al_Dente wrote:""only one left open"""
THANK YOU boss

That is just for today Al, the 10-day chart has 6 open, all the way to 174.87$

internals, 5 minutes

joegamma wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

joegamma wrote:TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0

1115trin.png

Hi joegamma, please explain "TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0" the 5 day avg would always be below 4.0 as TRIN is seldom above 4.0

5 days with trin at 0.80 is summed to 4.0, (ie .80 * 5) just the method that Bretz proposed (from Market Breadth Indicators book)...stockcharts cannot sum, so I used 6day ATR as a so-so visual proxy, you can add 'em by hand too

Royal: sorry I was too busy to pull out calculator, the bretz signal fired yesterday: (if my math skills work...). (47+.87+.86+.53+.74) / 5 is less than 4.0.....today will confirm if trin less than 1.0, fwiw

fehro wrote:bored?... check out some interesting charts... http://www.bespokeinvest.com/

and also look here ... http://thebuttonwoodtree.wordpress.com/ ... he-market/

I'd love to see the set-ups of those buying/selling programs

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

joegamma wrote:TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0

1115trin.png

For a strong rally, we need a surge in NYADV, or a drop in nyhgh from these levels, normally ratio needs lower

1115hg-adv.png

still looking at these and wondering if we are in a new leg up or not

1115trin-upv.png

and, RARE to see the amex highs have negative slope, not sure what it implies

1115amex.png

Hi joegamma, please explain "TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0" the 5 day avg would always be below 4.0 as TRIN is seldom above 4.0

I think it is a 5 day total not average. You would use an average of 0.8 as a threshold.

I have some experience (read scar tissue) on this.
I have found that win rates on this are dramatically different depending on whether you are in a bull trend or bear trend.
The signal has good tradeable odds in a bear trend, but it is a coin flip in a bull trend IMO.
That said, it is worth keeping an eye on in a bull trend because the times it does work (52%) are often at highs/tops.

How very honorable of our Music Fan to share some evidence of scar tissue! thats what makes the KingSnake's board the best!! thanks for the clarification

revisit day low, key time. I think it'd be bought.

joegamma wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

joegamma wrote:TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0

1115trin.png

For a strong rally, we need a surge in NYADV, or a drop in nyhgh from these levels, normally ratio needs lower

1115hg-adv.png

still looking at these and wondering if we are in a new leg up or not

1115trin-upv.png

and, RARE to see the amex highs have negative slope, not sure what it implies

1115amex.png

Hi joegamma, please explain "TRIN MIGHT GIVE A SELL SIGNAL NEXT DAY OR SO, bretz rule needs 5 day avg below 4.0" the 5 day avg would always be below 4.0 as TRIN is seldom above 4.0

5 days with trin at 0.80 is summed to 4.0, (ie .80 * 5) just the method that Bretz proposed (from Market Breadth Indicators book)...stockcharts cannot sum, so I used 6day ATR as a so-so visual proxy, you can add 'em by hand too

Thanks joegamma, the only book I am aware of on the subject is:"The Complete Guide To Market Breadth Indicators" by Gregory Morris, is this the one you are referring to?

$SPX: Patiently waiting for the lower high. The bounce off the lod does not look impulsive

yes Royal: , knew author was candlestick guy, but could not remember if Nilson or Morris, you are correct, its an excellent book when you can buy it for jacket list price vs advertised $225!

typical trading reversal setup.

wait to see if bulls could make double bottom here.

VIX 15m.. possible invs H&S.. looks like monday AM would be the pop if it plays out....

DAILY time frame: I am calling a short term top or at least for new position it is safer to be shorts than longs here. I will gone shorts to honor CCI 21 >200. but will be quick to take profit.


intraday another buy here, but for the reason above I will reverse course at high RSI.

hard to see a "win win" here

double bottom.

Al_Dente wrote:hard to see a "win win" here

win win_png.png

Outstanding!!

SLOW DAY - means a RESEARCH DAY!

Just for FUN - this is the NARROWEST RANGE SO FAR in the SPY on Opex Day since 2007

Others:

Aug 12 .44 - Minor top on the Tuesday after
Mar 12: .48 - Minor top on the Monday after
Feb 07: (pre holiday) .53 - MAJOR TOP on the Thursday after
Feb 11 (pre holiday): .63 Major top on Opex Day
Jan 12: .63 - Minor top on the Monday after
Feb 12 (pre holiday) .67Minor top on the Tuesday after

Means 1 of two things - the range will expand later today

or we will sit here and make fresh highs next week until the market gets bored and we pull back about 2.5 SPY pts....

What I was surprised to discover is that 23 of the opex days (out of 83) since 2007 have had ranges of less than 1 pt in the SPY.

Anyway - silly research..... but thought people might enjoy!

-D

my entry for trading reversals setup explained as someone is asking.

revisit day high, key time. I'll say this rebound at least will have small legs.

Last chart of the week, something for the bulls Buy guys!