11/20/2013 Live Update

[Cobra]

targets updated, now wait for breakout or breakdown.

[joegamma]

big disconnect between bonds and stocks right now....
DiD US get downgraded?
maybe "the great rotation" commences again...still a bit short tlt, and smallcaps watching whether we close outside 10975/11025-otherwise neutral there.
I/T still lean that highs are in for a bit

[Jupiter]

Thanks Fehro!

[Heck]

Call>Put Sentiment on undervalued opening ETF/Index options = Market Up

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

[Cobra]

not a valid breakdown yet but at least now bears are attacking...

[Cobra]

lunch time, will be back.

[fehro]

SPX 15m... 3-4 bars (35minutes) to FED minutes...

[quientuves]

Someone, send me a private message asking for my previous post.

My point is that everybody seems to accept that Lady "Moneyfalls" Yellen is a dove and that she will try to maintain the QE or do a very slow and cautious tapper. And she will even take other "measures" to provide more liquidity.

I think Fed hawks want to tapper and know that, with Yellen, that's going to be more difficult. So probably they are going to do it now, before she takes the Chair.

Their excuse could be that Europe, China, Australia,... will replace FED in the liquidity easing.

[joegamma]

Someone, send me a private message asking for my previous post.

My point is that everybody seems to accept that Lady "Moneyfalls" Yellen is a dove and that she will try to maintain the QE or do a very slow and cautious tapper. And she will even take other "measures" to provide more liquidity.

I think Fed hawks want to tapper and know that, with Yellen, that's going to be more difficult. So probably they are going to do it now, before she takes the Chair.

Great point, except:
its not up to the hawks, some committees decide by consensus, I doubt this FOMC (or any other) are really democratic in thought or action...

[BullBear52x]

Fed may not be able to save this time, market is way addicted to easy money, risk free investment mentality is over its head.

[quientuves]

Yes, but that consensus is easier now... and they have been pressing...

Ok, is only the theory of a dumb aching bear...

[Heck]

CPCE suggests the rally might be over.

CPCE 1120.png

$CPCE can be distorted by hedging, market makers and prop desks, why opening long only ISE ISEE can be more useful if we calculate VIX vs implied premium volatilities to see which side of the trade is undervalued

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

In any event, put buying in past peaked at market lows

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?$CPCE,$SPX

[fehro]

Someone, send me a private message asking for my previous post.

My point is that everybody seems to accept that Lady "Moneyfalls" Yellen is a dove and that she will try to maintain the QE or do a very slow and cautious tapper. And she will even take other "measures" to provide more liquidity.

I think Fed hawks want to tapper and know that, with Yellen, that's going to be more difficult. So probably they are going to do it now, before she takes the Chair.

Great point, except:
its not up to the hawks, some committees decide by consensus, I doubt this FOMC (or any other) are really democratic in thought or action...

Also not sure if much action will happen until another debt debate is over ... http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/11/ ... for-clues/ Dec15..... and Jan 15 is the debt deadline

[fehro]

VIX 15m

[TWT]

$USDJPY: It could be forming a Triangle wave (B)

[BullBear52x]

Market at work. Fed can drop the rate to 0 now, if the goal is for QE until 6.5% unemployment, we will get the QE for the next 15 years.

[fehro]

getting a little stirring action in the miners interday... GDX/NUGT prior to the FED

[Mr. BachNut]

There has been a disturbance in the Force.

T Bill rates have started ticking up and have made a higher high and a higher low.
Up from nothing I know, but it is change at the margin.

This may reverse imminently and may just be some noise or it could be the start of something.
When long yields went up in May, the short end of the curve did not budge.
If we break 0.1, I would say it is budging.
This may align with earlier comments concerning some pre-Yellen adjustments.

[Cobra]

might be another leg down?

[joegamma]

Yes, but that consensus is easier now... and they have been pressing...

Ok, is only the theory of a dumb aching bear...

not dumb at all, this is a great forum for exchange of ideas, my PnL would be greatful to see you right