01/23/2014 Live Update

[fehro]

Gappy - Re Live Cattle

I am expecting beef prices to be much higher this year. Here in California we are in the midst of a two year drought. Cattle farmers have to feed hay, at much higher expense, since the grazing grasses are non existent due to no rain. The snow pack, from where we get nearly all our water, is around 17% of normal for this time of year and very little rain in the extended forecast. Guessing the Midwest has not fared much better as the extreme cold must have had some impact on cattle ranches as well. fwiw

Yes sir, I have family out your way. It would surprise me if all foodstuffs don't inflate in the next years with a cooler sun cycle and oil costs eventually spiking. Just an opinion though, not tradable.

could be tradable.... DBA daily Long term.. possible bullish falling wedge would need one more zig-zag up to cyan trend then down to new lows?

[gappy]

a.PNG

b.PNG

[uempel]

Update:

[MrMiyagi]

spy10

[gappy]

2354.png

Are p-bars inside the recent trade range considered "unfilled" MrMiyagi?

[MrMiyagi]

Are p-bars inside the recent trade range considered "unfilled" MrMiyagi?

The yellow lines with prices are unfilled, the thinner red lines have been hit.

So far for 2014 all targets (aside from the three open) on SPY have been hit, if my memory is correct.

[gappy]

Are p-bars inside the recent trade range considered "unfilled" MrMiyagi?

The yellow lines with prices are unfilled, the thinner red lines have been hit.

So far for 2014 all targets (aside from the three open) on SPY have been hit, if my memory is correct.

Thanks.

[Cobra]

could be descending triangle in the forming so bias is down. lunch time, will be back.

[Cobra]

target if breakdown.

[DellGriffith]

Decided to short gold more at current levels to drop my average price a lot closer to my original intended target. i feel better now unless gold suddenly rises up to hit my stop which i dont think it will.

[1der]

target if breakdown.

Matches Miyagi PBar

[Nrsimha]

2353.png

SENSEI, is there any historical difference between the red and green P-bars?

[koolblue]

missed my 1817.50 long so ar by two ticks...going to have to take a stab down here somewhere...

[gappy]

Decided to short gold more at current levels to drop my average price a lot closer to my original intended target. i feel better now unless gold suddenly rises up to hit my stop which i dont think it will.

Capture.PNG

[fehro]

Decided to short gold more at current levels to drop my average price a lot closer to my original intended target. i feel better now unless gold suddenly rises up to hit my stop which i dont think it will.

around 1262 atm.. near down trend resistance.. GOLD daily, fwiw.

[fehro]

SPX 15m... creeping closer to the open gap.. but still on support of sorts..

[MrMiyagi]

is there any historical difference between the red and green P-bars?

I assume you mean in hit rate percentage?
I have not kept that close a scrutiny, in 2013, the bear (red) targets had slightly less hit rates than the bull (green) targets.

I think that it is a little biased towards trend, otherwise a good 75% fill rate (higher so far this year) on SPY is probably correct.

[fehro]

VIX pressing it's BB band.. pressing the 200d SMA

[DellGriffith]

Decided to short gold more at current levels to drop my average price a lot closer to my original intended target. i feel better now unless gold suddenly rises up to hit my stop which i dont think it will.

Capture.PNG

Thanks for the chart gappy.

I don't see new multiyear lows just ahead, but I do see a shortable correction. So my view differs slightly from that but its not far off my my own opinion.

[koolblue]

long here 2nd attempt (1818.00)