03/04/2014 Live Update

[1der]

I wonder how the 5th year of brain wash will have an affect in our life time.

UP Up Oley!

BB52: I speak to my 108 yr old Great Uncle nearly everyday to help him do his trading which he has done all his life. He was well into to it in 1929 and was wiped out and came back. I am going to ask him about the the feelings of exuberance in the late 1920's and if he feels any parallels to today. To me, this just feels unreal and slo-mo Blow Off-ish. but hey, if had one tenth of the answers, I would have my own island and not be here, so wtfdik. Just preserving capital and watching.

[Al_Dente]

...I got knocked out of XIV ....

Boss I know we'll get ‘em next time
Until then:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YW3MIixEps4

[koolblue]

1872 , exactly as shown last weekend.. heres an update view... The Putin puke went to 1832.25, the only other number I had was 1824.00

[BullBear52x]

I wonder how the 5th year of brain wash will have an affect in our life time.

UP Up Oley!

BB52: I speak to my 108 yr old Great Uncle nearly everyday to help him do his trading which he has done all his life. He was well into to it in 1929 and was wiped out and came back. I am going to ask him about the the feelings of exuberance in the late 1920's and if he feels any parallels to today. To me, this just feels unreal and slo-mo Blow Off-ish. but hey, if had one tenth of the answers, I would have my own island and not be here, so wtfdik. Just preserving capital and watching.

Yeap, things that make you go hmm....

[L_T]

...I got knocked out of XIV ....

Boss I know we'll get ‘em next time

Interesting though that XIV hasn't made new highs like the indexes. Thoughts anyone?

[L_T]

Here is a happier chart: I bought the breakout on CF and have held the whole way. Fertilizer is good biz.

[TraderGirl]

It's possible for a turn around 10am ish PST...cycle turn...

But if a pullback, intraday charts suggests it would be bought...

[TraderGirl]

Channel support yesterday...

[BullBear52x]

looking at weekly, Mar-Apr 2011 have a lot of similarity per Histogram and RSI(5) = sell the rip on this weekly, very overbought by this measure.

[BullBear52x]

Here is the chart.

[Cobra]

1st touch of EMA20, more likely this pullback would be bought.

[Al_Dente]

Interesting though that XIV hasn't made new highs like the indexes. Thoughts anyone?

Bulkowski on the island:
“Throwback/pullback rate: 70%; 65%”
“In case you missed it, this pattern has the worst performance rank of any chart pattern – dead last – regardless of the breakout direction”
http://thepatternsite.com/islandrev.html

[flumanchu]

Avg daily POMO is $1.8 billion / day needed to keep the market even.

Fri, Feb 28, 2014 Mon, Mar 3, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion
Mon, Mar 3, 2014 Tue, Mar 4, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.25 - $2.75 billion
Tue, Mar 4, 2014 Wed, Mar 5, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion
Wed, Mar 5, 2014 Thu, Mar 6, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 12/31/2019 - 02/28/2021 $2.25 - $2.75 billion
Thu, Mar 6, 2014 Fri, Mar 7, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion

No POMO used yesterday - so, combined total for yesterday and today is $4.0 billion (avg $2.0 billion / day - greater than $1.8).

SPX close on Friday (1860). SPX should close today just a little higher than 1860 - probably 1865 - 1870.

Appr 4 - 5 billion POMO left for the rest of the week -> $5 billion / 3 days => avg - $1.67 billion / day for the remainder of the week.

Market should be even to down slightly from today's close thru the end of this week.

[Auole]

"Buy on the sound of cannons." N.Rothschild, 1815 Well, I think our algo market computers are now programmed with ~peace maker~ poisonalities.
However, all these gyrations...I am grateful to this TraderMoe to give some TA peace to this mess. It's been megaphone inside megaphone complete with fancy new highs; VWAPs tested near religiously. Next megaph VWAP on /ES again is 184ish. Here's one of his yest. ES multi megaphone charts. and in his words:
ES has spiked through the top of yesterday’s megaphone. It would usually form a topping pattern here before a retrace to the megaphone VWAP.
At VWAP it can reverse for an explosive genuine breakout upwards (green scenario). If instead ES gets through the megaphone VWAP, it is headed for the megaphone bottom (lavender scenario). The lavender scenario is gateway to some potentially dangerous scenarios, depending on how the betting goes at some critical points.

Moemegaph3mo4mar14.jpg (19.66 KiB) Viewed 15604 times

[Cobra]

bias still up. lunch time, will be back.

[TraderGirl]

Potential for 5 waves down for "A" and p-bar down to 187.23...above line makes 5 waves down invalid...

[Auole]

Eeuww, very foggy zoom in on Moe's chart, here's same megaph's on an 'A' chart.

[Al_Dente]

Last time there was such a radical BULL volume push was 9 and 10 Oct, neither of which were OPEX days

[BullBear52x]

off subject, RSH, will they ever going to be around any longer? closing down another 1100 shops. ouch!

[uempel]

Update: