03/31/2014 Live Update

[ALdaytrade]

Thank you fehro, I have been using those links. However, that does not answer my question, as the schedule did not indicate any release for March 31st and as I stated above, only the 242.069 $B, has been released today as seen in the "Temporary" file. So, I am wondering if there is a carry forward for April? I am asking the question, more specifically, how flumanchu knew that 3.7 million was left for today. There was and estimated $3.75 - $4.50 billion scheduled for Thursday, March 27, 2014, however there was no schedule for an Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase for March 31,2014. Do you see my confusion?

yes sorry... but if you go to the bottom of the schedule, you'll see:
The next release of the tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 3 p.m. on March 31, 2014. At that time the Desk will publish information on transaction prices for securities included in the operations listed above.



Not sure about the exact amounts.

Is that not talking about the "operation schedule" for the next month? That is what flumanchu is waiting for to see what is being released for April and he expects a market selloff if the POMO schedule is "weak for the next week or so!"

[ALdaytrade]

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Still - SPX 1876 today - based on POMO.



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Thank you fehro, I have been using those links. However, that does not answer my question, as the schedule did not indicate any release for March 31st and as I stated above, only the 242.069 $B, has been released today as seen in the "Temporary" file. So, I am wondering if there is a carry forward for April? I am asking the question, more specifically, how flumanchu knew that 3.7 million was left for today. There was and estimated $3.75 - $4.50 billion scheduled for Thursday, March 27, 2014, however there was no schedule for an Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase for March 31,2014. Do you see my confusion?

ALdaytrade if you really need the answer ask him how many beers does it take to get the answer, get him a good beers JK.

Good idea!

[Cobra]

testing range high then pullback. if pullback is not sharp then still bull biased. wait.

[fehro]

Is that not talking about the "operation schedule" for the next month? That is what flumanchu is waiting for to see what is being released for April and he expects a market selloff if the POMO schedule is "weak for the next week or so!"

I believe that's what he's looking for.. as it schedules the dollar amounts for the month of April by day. It was just updated.

[ALdaytrade]

Well here it is, $30 B for April.

[fehro]

Well here it is, $30 B for April.

well at this rate... -$5 billion/month = Sept should be the last month!

[BullBear52x]

$NYMO is bullish, positive now, I hope they can keep this range another month, or until May, sell and go away season. Peace!

[BullBear52x]

/ES intraday buy is about to fail. no new high. <1862 sellers will step in.

[ALdaytrade]

Thank you fehro, I have been using those links. However, that does not answer my question, as the schedule did not indicate any release for March 31st and as I stated above, only the 242.069 $B, has been released today as seen in the "Temporary" file. So, I am wondering if there is a carry forward for April? I am asking the question, more specifically, how flumanchu knew that 3.7 million was left for today. There was and estimated $3.75 - $4.50 billion scheduled for Thursday, March 27, 2014, however there was no schedule for an Outright Treasury Coupon Purchase for March 31,2014. Do you see my confusion?

yes sorry... but if you go to the bottom of the schedule, you'll see:
The next release of the tentative outright Treasury operation schedule will be at 3 p.m. on March 31, 2014. At that time the Desk will publish information on transaction prices for securities included in the operations listed above.



Not sure about the exact amounts.

Is that not talking about the "operation schedule" for the next month? That is what flumanchu is waiting for to see what is being released for April and he expects a market selloff if the POMO schedule is "weak for the next week or so!"

"What we we've got here, is a failure to communicate. Some men you just can't reach."
I understand your charts much better. I am not explaining myself properly.

[flumanchu]

From what I see, POMO for April looks weak until middle of next week.

I see 1852 by this Friday, and 1820 by mid-next week. They could hold it here (1876) tomorrow, but it's going down.

Note: could be a wrinkle in this if the ECB announces stimulus on Thursday. We'll see...

[ALdaytrade]

From what I see, POMO for April looks weak until middle of next week.

I see 1852 by this Friday, and 1820 by mid-next week. They could hold it here (1876) tomorrow, but it's going down.

Note: could be a wrinkle in this if the ECB announces stimulus on Thursday. We'll see...

Do you think you could answer my questions that I posed to you both on the weekend and then today.

Thank you.

If it is your private research, just say that it is "proprietary information," and I will respect that and stop asking about it. Plus then I can stop trying to find that information the site and save myself some precious time.

[Al_Dente]

stockcharts

EMERGENCY SITE MAINTANENCE AT 4:20PM (1:20 Pacific) TODAY! Please make sure to complete your activities by then.
We expect to be down for about 10 minutes

[MrMiyagi]

iwm5

[Auole]

here it is. cheapie.

Expected Purchase Size
Tue, Apr 1, 2014 Wed, Apr 2, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $0.90 - $1.15 billion
Wed, Apr 2, 2014 Thu, Apr 3, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.00 - $2.50 billion
Thu, Apr 3, 2014 Fri, Apr 4, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $0.90 - $1.15 billion
Mon, Apr 7, 2014 Tue, Apr 8, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $0.90 - $1.15 billion
Tue, Apr 8, 2014 Wed, Apr 9, 2014 Outright TIPS Purchases 04/15/2018 - 02/15/2044 $0.75 - $1.00 billion
Wed, Apr 9, 2014 Thu, Apr 10, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $0.90 - $1.15 billion
Thu, Apr 10, 2014 Fri, Apr 11, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 04/30/2018 - 12/31/2018 $2.75 - $3.50 billion
Fri, Apr 11, 2014 Mon, Apr 14, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.00 - $2.50 billion
Mon, Apr 14, 2014 Tue, Apr 15, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $0.90 - $1.15 billion
Tue, Apr 15, 2014 Wed, Apr 16, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 01/31/2020 - 03/31/2021 $1.75 - $2.25 billion

POMO, QE, Dixie up or down, our congress all swallows their bubble gum, cigars or whatever, I just see the SPX (/ES futs) as re-attempting last wave 5 of this top. I really dislike 7+ wave chops. :[

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:33 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

3rd test on day high, a breakout is more likely.

[flumanchu]

Well here it is, $30 B for April.

well at this rate... -$5 billion/month = Sept should be the last month!

They might reduce one more time (to $25 billion) so we can have a nice controlled selloff this summer. But, not sure - there's so much talk about soft data due to the weather, blah, blah, blah.

If they Tapered, and the market takes it too badly, and GDP numbers are low, they might halt the Taper for a few months. WHAT IF they went back up to $35 billion at some point???-
Let's say the market fell a couple of hundred $SPX points by mid - late summer, how would the market react if there was an increase in POMO - violent. I think bears would be caught in a huge trap, and short covering would be unreal. Might be enough to get the administration to the Elections in November.

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[ALdaytrade]

"here it is. cheapie"

To whom are you sending this salutation to? To me? This is not my question. Sorry if I have confused everyone here.

This is my question:

"I asked on the weekend blog, however you might have missed it, how did you know that there was 3.7 billion POMO left for release for today? Is it on the POMO site? Was that from you own calculations that you keep from a record of what has been released? I found the their site that they only released 242.069 $B today. Can they carry the rest forward into April?"

[fehro]

VIX 60m weak... is bleeding down to support.... possible descending triangle pink... or bullish falling wedge orange.

[Cobra]

vol surge, range top so might see pullback here first then we'll see.