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Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:26 am
by uempel
January 2008 in comparison to January 2016:
- 2007/08: Post Santa decline in SPX had an incredible downwards momentum, lost 15.5 percent in 18 trading sessions.
- 2015/16: so far the Post Santa decline in SPX has lost 10.7 percent in 12 trading sessions
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:54 am
by brucekeller
http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures has a nice list of most world futures too, all in one screen and then has tradingview's charting system to boot.
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:15 pm
by DellGriffith
uempel wrote:January 2008 in comparison to January 2016:
2008.png
201516B.png
The rebound in January of 2008 began after MLK day. MLK day was 1/21/2008. The low was 1/22. So maybe we set a low tomorrow get a rebound from there.
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 12:41 pm
by GreedyKojiro
retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:05 pm
by fehro
/CL - USOIL racing towards multi year support level 26.50/25.50
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:11 pm
by uempel
DellGriffith wrote:uempel wrote:January 2008 in comparison to January 2016:
2008.png
201516B.png
The rebound in January of 2008 began after MLK day. MLK day was 1/21/2008. The low was 1/22. So maybe we set a low tomorrow get a rebound from there.
I've got a signal for Thursday ...
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:21 pm
by DellGriffith
I'm mostly following oil today too.
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:22 pm
by uempel
GreedyKojiro wrote:retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....
Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too
Of course there might
be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:35 pm
by GreedyKojiro
uempel wrote:GreedyKojiro wrote:retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....
Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too
Of course there might
be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...
d.png
It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:05 pm
by uempel
We know that catching falling knives is a losers game. But should somebody be hell-bent on going long next week check out SPX 1823. And should SPX touch the 1823 area next Wednesday or Thursday the odds are 51:49 that there might be a rebound
But as I said, it's a losers game. Odds worse than in Russian Roulette
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:24 pm
by DellGriffith
uempel wrote:We know that catching falling knives is a losers game. But should somebody be hell-bent on going long next week check out SPX 1823. And should SPX touch the 1823 area next Wednesday or Thursday the odds are 51:49 that there might be a rebound
But as I said, it's a losers game. Odds worse than in Russian Roulette
SPX2.png
There are plenty of support lines you can draw on that chart that didn't get retested before a bounce occurred. For example, there's a dip in June of 2013 that connects to Feb of 2014. The next two drops in 2014 failed to get back to that line.
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:25 pm
by uempel
Kojiro, let's agree to disagree. I see the rebound up to the blue channel with a top at SPX 2016.48 as a romantic good-bye kiss ....
- This is a TA kiss
- Visualization of a TA kiss
GreedyKojiro wrote:uempel wrote:GreedyKojiro wrote:retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....
Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too
Of course there might
be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...
The attachment d.png is no longer available
It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:38 pm
by BullBear52x
Why don't we look at earning (GAAP)? market will be slump until it turns around in big picture long term.
for scalping, it's good day any day but for long term investment many funds are under 10% to 20% drop from their peaks, check them out to get a good view.
market never tank on low fear, fear is high right now
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:41 pm
by MrMiyagi
fehro wrote:/CL - USOIL racing towards multi year support level 26.50/25.50
I think the Saudis want this at $25, they haven't killed off Canada's economy just yet.
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:47 pm
by GreedyKojiro
uempel wrote:Kojiro, let's agree to disagree. I see the rebound up to the blue channel with a top at SPX 2016.48 as a romantic good-bye kiss ....
TAK.png
Kiss.png
GreedyKojiro wrote:uempel wrote:GreedyKojiro wrote:retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....
Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too
Of course there might
be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...
d.png
It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye
I totally agree with you, Uempel, those kisses are Daily good bye. Shouldn't we need a Weekly good bye also? If you look at both cases in late 2000-early 2001 and early 2008 I posted above, we should revisit 1980 area for at least once (yes, maybe it is too much to ask for 2010).
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:50 pm
by BullBear52x
GreedyKojiro wrote:uempel wrote:Kojiro, let's agree to disagree. I see the rebound up to the blue channel with a top at SPX 2016.48 as a romantic good-bye kiss ....
The attachment TAK.png is no longer available
The attachment Kiss.png is no longer available
GreedyKojiro wrote:uempel wrote:GreedyKojiro wrote:retest of 1980? or even 2010? It ain't dramatic without a kiss of good bye!... although any breakup will have some pain before the last kiss....
Kojiro, we know that you are greedy, but are you blind too
Of course there might
be a rebound, but I don't see any kissing ...
The attachment d.png is no longer available
It was sure a kiss, Uempel! But it wasn't a kiss of good bye
I totally agree with you, Uempel, those kisses are Daily good bye. Shouldn't we need a Weekly good bye also? If you look at both cases in late 2000-early 2001 and early 2008 I posted above, we should revisit 1980 area for at least once (yes, maybe it is too much to ask for 2010).
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:57 pm
by Al_Dente
CAT FIGHT ALERT:
zh alleged that “Dallas Fed members had met with banks in Houston and explicitly ‘told them not to force energy bankruptcies’ and to demand asset sales instead.” Further, zh alleged that the FED suspended “mark to market” rules for energy debt.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... orce-shale
This “rumor” was debunked by the Dallas Fed.
zh responds, demanding transparency and full disclosure via a FOIA filing [Freedom of Information Act].
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... -questions
Elsewhere: WFC, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, disclosed in last week’s conference call that they have $17 billion in outstanding energy loans, the majority of which is rated junk, and they “set aside” $1.2 billion
(7%) in “loan loss reserves” to cover losses in the oil and gas portfolio.
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:19 pm
by BullBear52x
How is real Estate? lets look at IYR
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:29 pm
by Al_Dente
OIL UPDATE:
And now Bloomberg SHOWS the Koch Brothers oil refinery, "Paying" -$0.50 For North Dakota Crude [yes, that’s NEGATIVE fifty cents per barrel].
“…the crude glut is now so acute that the Koch brothers are actually charging 0.50/bbl to take
low grade oil at their Flint Hills Resources refining arm.”
zh snarks: “It's no wonder the Dallas Fed suspended mark-to-market on energy debts - there's no market to mark to.”
[source: Bloomberg via zh]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... kota-crude
Re: 01/16/2016 Weekend Update
Posted: Mon Jan 18, 2016 3:30 pm
by josephli
Al_Dente wrote:catfight.png.png
CAT FIGHT ALERT:
zh alleged that “Dallas Fed members had met with banks in Houston and explicitly ‘told them not to force energy bankruptcies’ and to demand asset sales instead.” Further, zh alleged that the FED suspended “mark to market” rules for energy debt.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... orce-shale
This “rumor” was debunked by the Dallas Fed.
zh responds, demanding transparency and full disclosure via a FOIA filing [Freedom of Information Act].
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... -questions
Elsewhere: WFC, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, disclosed in last week’s conference call that they have $17 billion in outstanding energy loans, the majority of which is rated junk, and they “set aside” $1.2 billion
(7%) in “loan loss reserves” to cover losses in the oil and gas portfolio.
For the bank industry's exposure in energy-related junk bond, interesting article here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... 0-a-barrel
it keep me wonder why you guys spend more time on ZH than bloomberg? presumably bloomberg has much better contents.