GS can’t even wait until after the Q&A
“Goldman Raises March Rate Hike Odds To 95% After Yellen Speech”
Stay tuned to see what they say tomorrow
[edit: sooooo, clearly the "surprise" would be no hike]
Last edited by Al_Dente on Fri Mar 03, 2017 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
BullBear52x wrote:sorry folks, no can't do. rate hike is not so sure in this fake economy now.?
I see my guess of no hike means market drops coming to reality....
See Europe elections go - anti-Euro .. money will flood US equities, and USdollar.. may rally for years… with a rate hike.
I agree but US political scene is not pretty either...guess most of the people ignore that when they talk about European money pouring into US...US has potential to go faster into political mess than Europe...
I think the DX is reacting to her comments that made it clear that THEY WILL NOT BE RAISING EVERY QUARTER. This is a change in the common knowledge game. Everybody said March means every quarter while May or June means 3 at most maybe just two this year. So the process of normalization is starting but no guarantees it will go at a steady pace.
She spent a lot of time explaining how changing conditions caused them to slow down the process in 2016 from 4 to 1. A clear message to the market.
US liquefaction capacity.jpg (34.98 KiB) Viewed 4094 times
Hot tip for a long term play. While the rig count is slowly expanding the export market is making inroads on the surplus. More reliance on solar/wind (like in Texas) means just that many more peak demand nat gas turbine plants that can turn on and off very very quickly. This was a really rough winter for demand so it is reasonable to think we are close to the bottom and those export liquefaction trains are very much a light at the end of the tunnel. I just don't know how far away that is, could be six months could be 3 years.
Deutsche Bank boring research up at Zerohedge using Feds own models makes it clear that the lower the rate when the next recession hits the greater the money printing. I think they don't want anyone to think that this is the old days where they automatically increase at a stead pace until the economy gets thrown into a recession. I have read that many of the people on Wall Street have never been in a rising rate environment, so I think she doesn't want to panic the newbees